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Flying Dutchman

  • #41
  • Mar 23, 2021 2:19pm Mar 23, 2021 2:19pm
This is most complex thread what I read there in ff. I dont understand anything that you talking about
  • #42
  • Mar 23, 2021 3:57pm Mar 23, 2021 3:57pm
Quoting ficibald
This is most complex thread what I read there in ff. I dont understand anything that you talking about
I find that newbies head to systems, then they move to Commercial(usually a let down) , then once they have worked something out they arrive in Technical .... once grey, beaten down and moth eared they drop into Trading Discussion.
This thread is for those who may have an ‘alternative view’ of .... reality!
Stick around, some of the guys posting have an unusual outlook but can and will open up perhaps a thought or idea that can fill in some gaps.

Andy
  • #43
  • Mar 23, 2021 8:48pm Mar 23, 2021 8:48pm
Hi

I'm a newbie too but I directly jump into Trading Discussion. In my opinion, here is more interesting since it gives insight how the market work; even though, it makes my head spin most of the time.

Best regards,
Build
  • #44
  • Mar 23, 2021 10:06pm Mar 23, 2021 10:06pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Why not? Anything goes in this thread as the Flying Dutchman sails the oceans endlessly ...
Hahaha then some newbies like me is going to blow up the accounts.
  • #45
  • Mar 23, 2021 11:44pm Mar 23, 2021 11:44pm
Quoting asalami23
{quote} Hahaha then some newbies like me is going to blow up the accounts.
Not necessarily if you try to create a system first before playing ... (it might take some time, but it’s worthy and can save you a lot of money and disappointment)
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #46
  • Mar 24, 2021 3:15am Mar 24, 2021 3:15am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Not necessarily if you try to create a system first before playing ... (it might take some time, but it’s worthy and can save you a lot of money and disappointment)
I am not so sure a system is the answer.

Question -

Can you feel the pulse of the market, do you understand what's just happen?

Unless you can say YES to both questions - take the Red Pill and close the door behind you when you leave.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #47
  • Mar 24, 2021 3:35am Mar 24, 2021 3:35am
Quoting RickM
{quote} I am not so sure a system is the answer. Question - Can you feel the pulse of the market, do you understand what's just happen? Unless you can say YES to both questions - take the Red Pill and close the door behind you when you leave.
As we can see from the chart, since Gold made record high, it has been making lower and lower resistances (the highlights). In the circled area, if Gold breaks its last week’s candle, it might go to 1700.5 (see my previous recommendation in this thread)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4FF2230C-77AE-46D7-8E2A-7A14275F4364.jpeg Size: 392 KB
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #48
  • Edited 1:49pm Mar 24, 2021 1:35pm | Edited 1:49pm
Hi dkrock

How to measure price against activated orders?

Having a sense of the amount of current passive orders remaining on the order flow books after activated orders have been accounted for often can easily be determined.
No mystery, just order book cleansings then simple card counting like a pro gambler when delta flips.

Cheers

EDIT

It seems DRock hasn't got the balls to stand behind a post he/she has placed on this thread. Yet again a post (two actually) were placed then deleted.
If you want to talk about activated orders relationship to aggressive market orders being applied to the futures market - lets really open up some traders minds.
Stop claiming you know how to back big money in this game - then lack the balls to keep your comments available for discussion.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #49
  • Edited 5:34pm Mar 24, 2021 5:19pm | Edited 5:34pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote}

His reason for deleting is he wants to avoid trolls, he wrote that in his post.
His 2 post above were made in response to TimeTells post.
Pete and Z, I have to make this post.
For FF members.
Promise my last.

Hi BW,

No probs about you posting again imo.

I may be crazy (good chance), but it would seem to me dkrock might ATTRACT more trolls by constantly posting then deleting his posts straight away.


I did ask dkrock a follow up question when he said the market doesn't move from target to target (candle to candle).

Of course, dkrock & I may be talking about 2 different things (happens on threads) which is why i wanted to clarify.

If dkrock should look in ever again, then the chart below would show my version of "repetitive" candle to candle, target to target behaviour, which may be a different scenario to his view in his first post, before he deleted it.

(And also this is a 4hr chart, a trader could also check other timefames for the fractal nature of the market).


(edit: ps trading immediately away from these target candles is not the only way to trade targets )


.
Attached Image
  • #50
  • Mar 24, 2021 9:50pm Mar 24, 2021 9:50pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Until an order is activated, price does not move. You would be head faking yourself, but you are welcome to do it. Do your card counting thing and best of luck.
Card counting is related to orders already activated and the amount of unopened orders that still sit on the order flow books.
Current volume allows us to have a great educated guess of remaining number of unopened orders that still remain on the books once that big cleansing order is activated at the top of the chain by a big player.
I am sure you know this by now?.

EDIT - More posts deleted by Mr dkrock because he is worried someone will sell his intellectual property.
Question- Why bother replying when you won’t stand behind one word you write?

Maybe it won’t stand up to the BS test.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #51
  • Mar 24, 2021 9:57pm Mar 24, 2021 9:57pm
Quoting dkrock{quote}<br /> A target candle is any reverse in direction that is large enough to beat the spread. I use multiple time frames to create a pricing cycle of the up and down movement. When the cycles are in agreement, that shows a high probability of a profitable trade. When they are not in agreement, it shows a low probability of a profitable trade. I understand most people have very little experience with graphs: the data collection, and the analysis of the collection displayed as a graph. So, they do what seems easy; draw lines to connect highs and lows and pretend it means something. It does not. Predicting future events involves [B
averaging averages[/b], not the analysis of the outliers of the data. Predictions are further validated by the price movement moving vertical into profitable territory with little to no draw down. It takes screen time to develop such consistency. The lower the time frame you analyze, the more frequently the patterns will draw themselves and the more experience you will gain. You probably didn't tie your shoe the first time you tried it. You probably didn't marry the first person you dated. You probably didn't read a book the first time you learned a word. You probably did not speak full sentences after you said "mama" the first time. All things require practice and continuous process improvement. When you can find trades with a blacked out main chart, no candles nor lines, then you will be trading like me.
averaging averages - sound familiar. Is it averaging averages all fractals?
  • #52
  • Mar 24, 2021 10:22pm Mar 24, 2021 10:22pm
Hi dkrock,

FFS your post was deleted as I was writing a reply lol.
Oh well, I saved a little of the post this time.

But cheers for your somewhat time restricted answer.


saved quote from dkrock:
A target candle is any reverse in direction that is large enough to beat the spread.



Yes, we do both use the same word “Target”.

But you and I have completely different meanings for it.

Thank you, that was all I was wanting to understand from your first post here. How you actually define a "target".
  • #53
  • Mar 25, 2021 2:11am Mar 25, 2021 2:11am
[quote=RickM;13468270]{quote} Card counting is related to orders already activated and the amount of unopened orders that still sit on the order flow books. Current volume allows us to have a great educated guess of remaining number of unopened orders that still remain on the books once that big cleansing order is activated at the top of the chain by a big player. I am sure you know this by now?. EDIT - More posts deleted by Mr dkrock because he is worried someone will sell his intellectual property. Question- Why bother replying when you won’t stand behind one word...

Mr. nut job 10000USD/pips just put me on ignore list, (probably) because I liked one of your previous posts. That indicates he is a total egomaniac.

Unfortunately FF is full of this kind of lunatics. But at least it is still a free forum.

Cheers,
B
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #54
  • Mar 25, 2021 6:14am Mar 25, 2021 6:14am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This post contain some serious math content, see if you grasp any of these on the conceptual level. First statement by Craig. Controversial because there's an assumption to consider. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...64#post3641264 "Wrong, consider a stationary Gaussian Random walk, it's generated via random numbers (or as random as a computer can), when it gets more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, what are the chances of the next step being closer to the mean? (hint: it isn't 50%)." CrucialPoint's response...
Hi BWilliams

Do we need all that complicated mathematics to impress our wife's and make some money along the way as well, I don't think so.
While I have used a lot of math's in my own Sine wave Envelopes - it still doesn't mean I really need anything else other but a basic calculator.
I believe that stuff above is just wrong, overly complicated.

Its just order book cleansing, not stop runs which don't exist or even price bouncing of some standard deviation.

There is just bugger all passive orders within spread reach

Does this make sense to you, if not join me one night. XAUUSD Chart
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #55
  • Mar 25, 2021 7:19am Mar 25, 2021 7:19am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi RickM, I didn't write any of those impressive posts. This math part is the larger spectrum which tells about the entire market where and what might happen in the future. Imagine if you have this part in your repertoire together with your volume indicator. CrucialPoint uses both. His is a complete strategy. The post above is to point to the specific conversation on FF that relate to the math part for those members interested. Easy for them instead of searching this entire forum(I have to read through them first, filter then post.)...
Hi BW

I understand your point and I see great value in their impressive work. Let me read up on their work some more and I will shut up until I do.
My point is trading doesn't need to be hard, we should be trading a strategy that feels the pulse of the market.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #56
  • Mar 25, 2021 10:32am Mar 25, 2021 10:32am
lol, this forum reminds me of the spoofing days.... one minute the post is there, the next minute the post is gone.... in fact a whole raft of them are gone, I give up.
  • #57
  • Edited 2:19pm Mar 25, 2021 11:00am | Edited 2:19pm
Read the following posts made 11 years ago. From the source, great minds in conversation.

Fantastic on point post from Craig.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...34#post3639534

Quoting Craig
The traders job is to find the non-random parts whist maintaining a healthy respect for the amount of randomness that does, no-doubt, exist. My own personal view is that by the definitions I have set the markets are 'mostly' random, non-random islands do exist, but they are hard to find in terms of any mathematically rigorous definition.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...64#post3641264

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...71#post3643171

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...15#post3643315

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...37#post3643537

Amazing post by FEXZ, with that final ootb aside.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...93#post3642293

Quoting FXEZ
The better question is what is the true nature of price series - and what are the exploitable characteristics of the underlying nature?...

But you take them all and put them together and you have a dynamic system that can be represented in a price distribution that has definable characteristics. What are they and which of them can be exploited? Perhaps that question would put you on the right path...

(as an aside, Can future transactions be predicted before they happen? This is the stuff that trading edges are built from - of particular note might be the study of order flow trading.)
Know what you trade
  • #58
  • Mar 25, 2021 11:38am Mar 25, 2021 11:38am
Quoting BWilliam
Read the following posts made 11 years ago. From the source, great minds in conversation. Fantastic on point post from Craig. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...34#post3639534 {quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...64#post3641264 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...15#post3643315 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...37#post3643537 Amazing post by FEXZ, with that final ootb aside. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...93#post3642293 {quote}...
BW - you should probably remove that tag saying you left FF.

I for one, am glad your back. I may not always agree with your perspective, but you do bring a fresh view to the table.


Best,
Almo
  • #59
  • Mar 25, 2021 11:41am Mar 25, 2021 11:41am
Quoting almo
BW - you should probably remove that tag saying you left FF. I for one, am glad your back. I may not always agree with your perspective, but you do bring a fresh view to the table. Best, Almo
Hi almo, I have this unfinished business about algo math. I had to dig deep in FF archive to find supporting evidence of such conversation to somewhat validate my proposition that's not new. At least there are few members who think alike. This post above should present the case clearly to members what this forex market is all about. Job done.
Know what you trade
  • #60
  • Mar 25, 2021 4:25pm Mar 25, 2021 4:25pm
Quoting BWilliam
... Can future transactions be predicted before they happen? ...
Some people call them “trading plans” ...

Regarding Craig’s view on non-randomness, there may not be any mathematical definition for it, but we can identify it as “trend”, higher-and-higher supports or lower-and-lower resistances ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
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