|MonJul 15||2:30am||CHF|| |
Empire State Manufacturing Index
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
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Members commenced their discussion by noting that growth in the global economy had remained moderate over preceding months. Global trade and manufacturing activity had slowed over the preceding year. Trade tensions had remained elevated, although no new measures had been introduced since the previous meeting. In China, recent indicators of economic activity suggested that growth had slowed since the March quarter. Growth in industrial production had fallen following a strong reading in March and the level of fixed asset investment had declined. Conditions in the Chinese property market had also softened and underlying demand conditions were expected to moderate over time, given the ageing of the population and a slowing in the rate of urbanisation. Over the preceding month, the Chinese authorities had introduced additional measures to support growth, including more favourable financing conditions for local governments investing in infrastructure projects. In east Asia, the combination of weaker Chinese growth, the downturn in global semiconductor demand and the trade and technology disputes had weighed on trade, although new export orders suggested that conditions might be stabilising. The effect of the US–China trade dispute had not been even across the region. Some economies, such as Thailand and Vietnam, had seen strong growth in their exports to the United States, which reflected some diversion of trade that had previously been between the United States and China. Growth in output in the United States had continued to be supported by strong growth in consumption, while growth in investment appeared to have slowed further. Members noted that capital goods orders had slowed and that the stimulus to investment from tax cuts had largely run its course. Growth in domestic demand in the euro area had been relatively resilient in the March quarter, but more recent data had been mixed. Growth in Japanese domestic demand had slowed in early 2019, partly as a result of spillovers from weak external demand conditions, but growth was likely to be supported in the near term by a pick-up in consumption growth in the lead-up to an increase in the consumption tax in Oc tweet at 9:30pm: RBA Minutes: To adjust policy 'if needed' support growth and inflation. Lower rates unlikely to spur an unwelcome rise in borrowing #AUDUSD #RBA tweet at 9:31pm: RBA: The Board would continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time. https://t.co/zfuYvsnSku tweet at 9:32pm: RBA Minutes: Indicators suggest jobs growth to moderate in the coming months #AUDUSD #RBA
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