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Flying Dutchman

Quoting ntk
{quote} How could you see that was a large BUY order by some big bankers or institutions?
Hi ntk

We need to make some assumptions first.

Before we get to that, if you trade with Futures data on trading platforms like Serria Charts, Motive Wave or Quantower, you get software that alerts you to big trades that have just been executed.

Now back to that assumption.

If we see a large selling orders hit the markets on Futures and it produces a strong bearish spike, we know what caused this movement.
Futures and SpotFX move in sync (almost exactly but with increased wicks on spot).
Therefore if we also see the same movement on SpotFX within 0.02 of a second - what event most likely caused that spike on Forex?.

The only assumption I can see would be a matching trading on forex (But many times larger).

Surely that is the only assumption that makes sense.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ntk We need to make some assumptions first. Before we get to that, if you trade with Futures data on trading platforms like Serria Charts, Motive Wave or Quantower, you get software that alerts you to big trades that have just been executed. Now back to that assumption. If we see a large selling orders hit the markets on Futures and it produces a strong bearish spike, we know what caused this movement. Futures and SpotFX move in sync (almost exactly but with increased wicks on spot). Therefore if we also see the same movement on SpotFX...
Hi RickM

Do you think its the big institutional order that comes in and price moves or Price wants to move first and institutions got to know that and they follow the price.

thanks
"Exchange of hands"
  • Post #83
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:54am Jun 25, 2021 2:17am | Edited 2:54am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ntk We need to make some assumptions first. Before we get to that, if you trade with Futures data on trading platforms like Serria Charts, Motive Wave or Quantower, you get software that alerts you to big trades that have just been executed. Now back to that assumption. If we see a large selling orders hit the markets on Futures and it produces a strong bearish spike, we know what caused this movement. Futures and SpotFX move in sync (almost exactly but with increased wicks on spot). Therefore if we also see the same movement on SpotFX...
trade with Futures data on trading platforms like Serria Charts, Motive Wave or Quantower this is or professional traders accessible is that correct? or is any where retailers could have risk a glimmer into those data?
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ntk We need to make some assumptions first. Before we get to that, if you trade with Futures data on trading platforms like Serria Charts, Motive Wave or Quantower, you get software that alerts you to big trades that have just been executed. Now back to that assumption. If we see a large selling orders hit the markets on Futures and it produces a strong bearish spike, we know what caused this movement. Futures and SpotFX move in sync (almost exactly but with increased wicks on spot). Therefore if we also see the same movement on SpotFX...

Although I favour the simpler option of a computer program setting areas to be revisited, and the subsequent nailing of stops, I do find your posts carry a lot of weight Rick, well thought out and obviously coming from a trader who understands the process and how to trade it.

Andy
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi RickM Do you think its the big institutional order that comes in and price moves or Price wants to move first and institutions got to know that and they follow the price. thanks
Hi bilal

I will tell you what I see, then you will know what I believe.

I see the market is one that's starved of liquidity so the big institutional traders can't get their orders filled, not without causing a flash crash which would destroy their trading objectives.
So they need the market to be imbalanced on the order book. Therefore if they plan to go bearish, they need more buyers to enter with large limit orders onto the order book - ideally about 2 : 1 in buyers favour.
They then ensure their selling market orders are always larger than the buyers limit orders are at the front of the order book crewe.
What I see in a strong bearish move is numbers that show Selling market orders that are executed are at least three times the size of Buyers orders.

So the institutional traders move price by causing imbalance of bids and asks. Then once momentum creates panic of buyers losing their equity accounts, they just keep increasing order their size till there is no more buyers - ZERO.
Price is only a number after there has been a trade execution.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting ntk
{quote} trade with Futures data on trading platforms like Serria Charts, Motive Wave or Quantower this is or professional traders accessible is that correct? or is any where retailers could have risk a glimmer into those data?
Hi ntk

Any trader that can afford to invest $100 a month into a Futures trading platform with data can access this imformation. If you are a small retail trader like most here, you can apply to access this data for non professional use at a discounted fee.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi bilal I will tell you what I see, then you will know what I believe. I see the market is one that's starved of liquidity so the big institutional traders can't get their orders filled, not without causing a flash crash which would destroy their trading objectives. So they need the market to be imbalanced on the order book. Therefore if they plan to go bearish, they need more buyers to enter with large limit orders onto the order book - ideally about 2 : 1 in buyers favour. They then ensure their selling market orders are always larger...
Thank you RickM for sharing your insights always
"Exchange of hands"
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Andy The question That interests me the most Does price determine liquidity or does liquidity determine price? Cheers
MM PSHYCHOLOGY determine liquidity . May be

liquidity determine price
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi aud, In a sense yes, in a sense not so, maybe its just semantics, or not (but yes imo to your last sentence re random). With Support & Resistance there is always the underlying expectation that something will happen at that SR line. For me, with targets, its more about price getting to that line, rather than what might happen when price gets there. Price changes. And traders, I guess are focused on price and its movements, with their own expectation. We are back to I guess, does price encourage liquidity, or does liquidity chase...

Thank YOU
Quoting ficibald
This is most complex thread what I read there in ff. I dont understand anything that you talking about
do not try to understand.
Just follow the signal without thinking
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote}
Thank YOU

Cheers,


The beauty (and despair) of trading forex, for many, is the multiplicities of ways that the markets can be viewed and traded.

I’ve pretty much made my fun in Forex by looking at many methods & styles etc that get thrown up from s/r, s/d, pivots, waves, harmonics, indis, oscillators, trends, channels, fibs (and more recently in a small way vols) … and then there’s scalping, day trading, position trading, hedging and … etc etc etc.

Which way to go for any new trader, which way to choose. ?


Each will come to their own conclusion I assume, but pretty much ALL methods imho work, around 50% of the time (well price either goes up or down, in time).

To me it has to be the trader themselves that will determine their own short or long term success (or failure).


I’m sure it’s been said that the best trading method for each trader is what they decide is best for them.

So I don’t usually comment on individual trading styles. Or who is right or who is wrong.


I like trading to targets (cheers George) and I now have plenty of targets to consider (I’ve added a few lol).

And when trading to targets I can also find myself trading away from another target - ie reversal trading - and it’s about 50/50 these days.


No one can really help another totally as an individual trader. It is mainly direction pointing.

And sadly, folks might abandon their method (or style) as something goes horribly wrong for them - often just wrong in one single awful trade. Everything then is abandoned and the ‘finding of something new’ begins all over again. While maybe the original method/style wasn’t even wrong - as such - just a subsequent single trade WAS wrong.

Remember there’s an old saying “Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater”.

Each will know I reckon whether they are on the right (or a better) track. When it, or something, finally makes sense (to them).

all the best
Pete
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} do not try to understand. Just follow the signal without thinking
I dont use signals.I use EA for trading they take signals.But I understand reason when it did
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers, The beauty (and despair) of trading forex, for many, is the multiplicities of ways that the markets can be viewed and traded. I’ve pretty much made my fun in Forex by looking at many methods & styles etc that get thrown up from s/r, s/d, pivots, waves, harmonics, indis, oscillators, trends, channels, fibs (and more recently in a small way vols) … and then there’s scalping, day trading, position trading, hedging and … etc etc etc. Which way to go for any new trader, which way to choose. ? Each will come to their own conclusion I assume,...

Great post Pete.
You and I sit at the top of the tree, the pointy bit, right at the very top.
All retail do.
We see s/r, s/d, pivots, waves, harmonics, indis, oscillators, trends, channels, fibs (and more recently in a small way vols) … and then there’s scalping, day trading, position trading, hedging and … etc etc etc.
In my view as price hits a target, we give the tree a shake and the money starts to filter down through the branches...
At the bottom collecting the money, the Cabal.
  • Post #94
  • Quote
  • Edited Jul 9, 2021 1:04am Jul 8, 2021 9:37am | Edited Jul 9, 2021 1:04am
When it, or something, finally makes sense (to them).

as Einstein said : We cannot solve our market model with the same thinking we used when we created them."

then ask :

What if i wholleheartly believe about the market IS wrong ?
WHAT IF i choose to belive that market are not random ?
What if trading IS NOT about the future ?
What if THE BIGGER PICTURE is not intermarket MACRO analysis ?
What if efficient market hyphoteis IS true ?
What if Random walk theori is wrong ?

What if the past, the now and the future price of BEHAVIOUR is happening AT ONCE ?
What if the greatest illusion of knowledge IS knowledge itself ?

Go on ....

my English soo hot here
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Great post Pete. You and I sit at the top of the tree, the pointy bit, right at the very top. All retail do. We see s/r, s/d, pivots, waves, harmonics, indis, oscillators, trends, channels, fibs (and more recently in a small way vols) … and then there’s scalping, day trading, position trading, hedging and … etc etc etc. In my view as price hits a target, we give the tree a shake and the money starts to filter down through the branches... At the bottom collecting the money, the Cabal.
Thank you and Congrat
You and the Three already become The Shadow Cabal

Surfing the wave with greatest conductor on earth.

George made me STEP BACK TOO FAR AWAY
ITS like look the market from astral dimension

Sorry, i must shoot my mouth
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
In my view as price hits a target, we give the tree a shake and the money starts to filter down through the branches... At the bottom collecting the money, the Cabal.

Hahaa Andy, someone or thing is collecting for sure.
Quoting deanyakobs
as Einstein said : We cannot solve our market model with the same thinking we used when we created them."

then ask :

What if i wholleheartly believe about the market IS wrong ?
WHAT IF i choose to belive that market are not random ?
What if trading IS NOT about the future ?
What if THE BIGGER PICTURE is not intermarket MACRO analysis ?
What if efficient market hyphoteis IS true ?
What if Random walk theori is wrong ?

What if the past, the now and the future price of BEHAVIOUR is happening AT ONCE ?
What if the greatest illusion of knowledge IS knowledge itself ?

Go on ....

Hi deanyakobs,
Great philosophical thoughts
I also spent quite a bit of time (enjoyably) thinking about the market in a philosophical way.

How
Why
Who
etc

This was great mental exercise. (As a mental exercise).


But imo trading doesn’t (necessarily) require a philosophical thought to be either right or wrong.

You’re a/c equity does require you to have financially successful trades. (Else you leave forex or you top-up you’re a/c ).


So I no longer ponder so much in the who or what is driving the forex market.

My interest is the market repeats a “behaviour”.


So I notice price returns to a specific point (a target) (or zone/area etc) then, whether it is a singularity, a group-cabal or just the whole lot of everyone of us buying or selling that is driving price there - is not what I search for (anymore).

Maybe an indicator “indicates” that price is now returning to a target (or zone or area).
maybe a certain oscillator does,
maybe a harmonic or a wave does also
maybe hard-core maths indicates the same (and more precisely)

For trading, it is the “happening” of that return that holds my interest (and not so much the why).


In essence, I see price as “always” trading in a range. But how big a range?

Well that’s a variable. And doesn’t really help anyone.


Price also jumps between other intermediate ranges. But essentially price stays inside a range (whatever timeframe), then moves out of that range (call it a ‘breakout’ maybe).

And when it moves ‘out’ of that intermediate range I choose to believe it is going somewhere.


Though the somewhere is no longer my whole of interest, now, which surprised me. As it used to be.
(I call the somewhere a target, but price doesn’t trade right to it like an arrow, for example - so some might call price movement random - just another word).

Any intermediate range is found imo around some inflection points, or areas, or zones. These could be at the end of extreme moves (exhaustion) and either AT high or low, or it can be in the middle of a larger TF prior hi or lo.

So that gives an area of trading possibility.

How AND WHEN (and why) to trade then, though, is always up to each individual.
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