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  • #401
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:37am Dec 16, 2009 8:37am
Basing a trade on a 1 hour chart would give me an opportunity to place a fib from 11th December to the most recent low, at this point in time a 50% retrace would give me an opportunity to get in safely (or as near to safe as trading allows) at 1.4650 where there is confluence of three barriers, TL, fib and round number.

Of course, price may well push on down from the time I posted this chart and I'm back to the drawing board.
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  • #402
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:07pm Dec 16, 2009 2:07pm
After this big down move, I tried to get cute and catch the bounce up.

Entered long on a break of the trend line.
Stop was 30 pips

Trade was a loss.

Price just nicked my stop (by 8 pips) and then wen up to the 50% retracement that I was hoping for.

In hindsight - this was careless trading after having a good run picking up the pips on the way down.

My only solace is that I knew it was not the best setup so I put in a close stop and lose only .5 of my normal risk.
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  • #403
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:13pm Dec 16, 2009 2:13pm
Hi Stephen,
Great to hear your thoughts.

Snowing up there now?
Sweating down here. !

Stewart
  • #404
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:59pm Dec 16, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting stewartr
Hi Stephen,
Great to hear your thoughts.

Snowing up there now?
Sweating down here. !

Stewart
No smarty pants, it's just freezing here, a blue tan is all the rage in Scotland.
  • #405
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:52pm Dec 16, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting stewartr
____________________________
I recent months I have been very discretionary in my trading. I am taking trades that are not my usual system, but going for better R:R ratios. My account is thanking me.

I have also reduced the number of pairs I trade. I watch 8 pairs but I am only trading the Eur/Usd and the Usd/Yen. I have been using the 8 pairs to get a better feel for the strenght / weakness of the usd and the yen. I can imagine myself just trading the euro/usd only in the months ahead. I am finding myself in agreement with Jacko who trades a...
Hi again,

I haven't posted much here for awhile but I have been watching. It seems that you are doing very well Stewart, Congrats on your efforts and Thank You for sharing your view and approach to the market.

I would like to say here that I really like this approach - that is to say I think it is a really good idea to only play one or maybe two pairs while watching the overall market. Really most pairs are 'correlated' in one way or another anyway.

Thanks again and continued good luck to you!!!!


p.s. Happy Holidays and All the Best in the New Year!!!!
  • #406
  • Dec 16, 2009 10:09pm Dec 16, 2009 10:09pm
Quoting stewartr
After this big down move, I tried to get cute and catch the bounce up.

Entered long on a break of the trend line.
Stop was 30 pips

Trade was a loss.

Price just nicked my stop (by 8 pips) and then wen up to the 50% retracement that I was hoping for.

In hindsight - this was careless trading after having a good run picking up the pips on the way down.

My only solace is that I knew it was not the best setup so I put in a close stop and lose only .5 of my normal risk.
The way you approach a trade, win or lose, defined as R (risk to account) is outstanding IMHO. This is such an important concept that escapes many traders I am sure. My point is this. . . as long as we limit our losses (R) to only a small fraction of our account then there are many, many opportunities to 'try again' to produce wins that are more than the original (R).

To simplify what I am saying is this, by knowing your risk to account you become 'enabled' to take any trade set-up that you like because you can simply apply less risk to trades that you feel have less potential to gain. Or at the very least limit your loss to a very small amount.
(I am stating the 'obvious' here in hope of helping less experienced traders).

Again, thanks for sharing.
  • #407
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:58pm Dec 17, 2009 1:58pm
Hi Andante9,

The following chart is a good example of how I am using multiple pairs to trade just one pair.

1. The moving averages are showing a downtrend for the eurjpy and gbpjpy. The usdjpy is starting to turn up - but I consider the general trend to be down on these pairs.

2. So Im looking for shorts. And it makes sense to short the weakest pair. The usdjpy is making higher highs and is above hte moving averages. The gbpjpy is making higher higher and is above the moving averages. However the eurjpy is NOT making higher highs - its moving sideways in a general down trend.

So the pair to trade short (with the trend) would be the eurjpy.

Then I just wait for a trigger.

3. Entry point is either a break of the red support line or just before that (a break of the 3 inside bars). The oscillator is also hooking.

I didnt take this trade because I was distracted by life. But this is a good example of how I look for a low risk trade.
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  • #408
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:08pm Dec 17, 2009 2:08pm
6 pairs.
eu, au, gu
ej gj ej

trade usd pairs in direction of trend
trade jpy pairs in direction of trend

trade strongest pair long
trade weakest pair short

use normal method for entry

ie trend + pull back + price trigger

Edit - I've also come to the conclusion that it makes sense to have just one open usd pair at a time. Its ok to have 1 usd pair and 1 jpy pair, but I prefer not to have more than 1 usd or jpy pair at a time.

So in summary - I am trading two currencies. The usd, and the JPY. And I'll short the weakest I can find (with the trend) and go long the strongest I can find (with the trend).
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  • #409
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:19pm Dec 17, 2009 8:19pm
Euro long in the Asian session
Daily is in a support zone.
4 hour is in a support zone and shows two pin bars.
Oscillators are showing oversold.

So I am long.

Here is the one hour chart.
I am long on the break of resistance line.

Oscillators on 4 hour and daily are looking good too.

Since I am posting this within a few minutes of taking the trade, I am posting from oanda's charts, so you can see my stop loss and take profit areas.
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  • #410
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:50pm Dec 17, 2009 8:50pm
Stewart

Thanks for the insight on your trade choices. Very interesting approach which seems to be working very well for you.

Thanks for sharing your thought process, I find it refreshing to see the market thru someone else's eyes.

Dan
  • #411
  • Edited Dec 18, 2009 1:15am Dec 17, 2009 10:55pm | Edited Dec 18, 2009 1:15am
Price has moved +50 pips.
I left my stop loss in place.
Price then retraced to +10 pips.
And now is back at +40 pips.

I will consider the intra-trade retracement is over and have moved my sl to break even now.

Stopped at break even.
  • #412
  • Dec 21, 2009 7:23am Dec 21, 2009 7:23am
Looking at the current 1 hour chart on the EUR/USD, there's been a little bit of resistance at 1.4400, price is heading back to this point, it now has the assistance of the downward trendline, and, taking a fib from the last touch off the trendline we get a 50% retrace just above at 1.4423.

So for me, trendline, round number 1.4400 and 50% fib close by, all good to go for a sell around this area (should price reach it of course).
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  • #413
  • Dec 21, 2009 7:30am Dec 21, 2009 7:30am
Quoting stewartr
Hi Stephen,
Great to hear your thoughts.

Snowing up there now?
Sweating down here. !

Stewart
When you wrote this it was just cold, now look what you caused, lol. 8" of snow in my back garden and on top of the car, I just took these pictures today, 21st Dec 1:30pm.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
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  • #414
  • Jan 18, 2010 6:53am Jan 18, 2010 6:53am
Using a trendline and a round number without the assistance fo the 50% fib, there is a possibility of a move up from 1.4300, I'll be looking to see some reaction around this area, daily trend is up overall, so trading with the trend is also on it's side.
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  • #415
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:09am Jan 18, 2010 7:09am
With this pair, there is little room for movement here, the overall trend is down, ideally, we would be looking for a sell, but we have higher lows developing and price is squeezing itself into a wedge. you could be in this for a short trade down to the lower TL at around 1.0180 from 1.0250, should give a nice 70 pips in your pocket, however, a 50% retrace on a move up would see trouble at 1.0200, if price was to ignore this fib level and the round number it could resume it's downward course with the trend.

I think I'll just sit back and watch this one. There are easier trades to be had.
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  • #416
  • Jan 26, 2010 3:26pm Jan 26, 2010 3:26pm
Been quietly going about my business and trading.

Here's another live trade.

We've had a strong move down in the eur/usd.
Price has made a double bottom.
Then we have a pin bar indicating an up move.
Price has retraced 50% of the pin bar.

Long at 1.4074
Stop 1.4035
TP at 2:1

Its a counter trend trade. I am betting a last low will hold for another push up to around 1.4150 to 1.4200.

Now we sit back and see if I take a small loss or a decent profit.
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  • #417
  • Feb 11, 2010 11:36am Feb 11, 2010 11:36am
Up nearly 10 times risk over the last week

Two trades.

USDJPY - yielded a 200+ gain with a 35 pip stop. This did wonders for my trading account. It was like 7 winners in a row at 1:1.

Reason for entering - oscillators extreme. General down trend. Excellent bearish outside down bar.


EurUsd - Risked 20 Pips. Exited final position at 140 pips. The only problem was, I was going to bed and so I closed 80% of my position for a 20 pip gain, then moved my stop to break even and went to bed. WHen I woke up, my remaining position had closed at +140 pips.

Reason for entry.
downtrend + osciallotors extreme + price action (pin bar at area of resistance after a pretty solid upmove).

comment: these trades were off the 30 min and 1 hour chart and were almost identical in their setups. In both cases the trigger candle indicated a failed attempt to make a new high.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #418
  • Feb 12, 2010 8:51am Feb 12, 2010 8:51am
Congrats on your trade Stewart, I'm also in this EU trade, however, I wont be looking to exit until at least 1.3473, I entered at 1.3800 a 50% retrace, fib taken from 3rd Feb. (300 pip expectancy).

Also in the USD/CHF fib from 3rd Feb, 61.8% retrace (entered at the 50%) 1.0643, currently up 162 pips, looking to exit around 1.0986. (343 pip expectancy).

The Kiwi I'm in a demo trade only on this one, 61.8% retrace from 3rd Feb fib, entered as the price dropped to the 50% at 0.6978, I expect this to move to around 0.6679. (344 pip expectancy).

I wont be exiting any of the above trades until it looks threatening around each exit area.
  • #419
  • Feb 16, 2010 10:39am Feb 16, 2010 10:39am
Doh! what do I know, :o)

Got to break even though, so no losses, whew.
  • #420
  • Feb 18, 2010 1:24pm Feb 18, 2010 1:24pm
Euro Short from area of resistance with oscillators extreme.
Trigger was break of inside bar.

Exited when price had entered support area and oscillator extreme the other way.

(Trying to stay with short trades on the euro at the moment. I tried to pick the bottom yesterday and took two small losses. Of course the 3rd long trade setup I ignored because I was twice bitten already. I dont regret the two trades I took that were losses. They were sensible trades where price had dropped to prior support and the oscillators were extreme. They were sensible risk/reward trades.....they just turned out to be losses and then I lost my nerve on the 3rd one- which would have led to a 3:1 winner).
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