StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

I dont trade this way. (At least not all the time).
But I drew this chart a fews ago.

The grey bar is a confluence of demand and a fib retracement.
Price touched it perfectly and took off.

I zoomed out and looked at the daily.
I deleted everything off my screen.

I saw a daily and weekly downtrend.
I saw price coming back to an area of supply and fib number.

I took this as a blind entry and woke up to a 150 profit (50 pip risk).

These are the mostest funnest of the trades I take. But I have not backtested this to know how well it works so I only trade it in my smaller agressive account.

Good one StewartGot on that one as well.Very nice trade - 50/32 conflunece of the last 2 daily swings plus the SR line. It may still run some more since it's below the 6000 level but really who knows I'll keep my eye out here. I noticed you mentioned aggressive account quiet a few times.Do you trade a conservative account and is it a different method or strategy ? Thanks,Tex

Hi Tex,
Yes I have a small account that I take trades in that are A- and B+ trades.

My large account I trade conservatively at 1% risk.

Occasionally my agressive account blows up! :-)
Occasionally my agressive account doubles in a month. :-)

GU
Price pulled back to supply line
supply line was also a price pivot
this was also a fib retrace level
price gave a small bearish candle

oscillator extreme

52 pip stop
120 pip profit

4 candles

Simple set and forget trade. Love it!

Short and still in this trade.

Bet .5R compared to normal position size but am going for 2:1.
Bet small because I did not have a clear candle to trigger the trade.

Reason for entry:
232 pip upward move without a pull back.
Price at prior area of supply/demand (price pivot zone).
Price also at a 50% fib retracement
Oscillatory extreme.

Went short at 90.23 with 50 pip stop.
Price has been up 59 pips so far so I've moved my sl to break even.

Now my plan is to stay with the trade until I get some indication that a reversal (back to long) is underway.

This is now a risk free trade and since I only bet .5R I want it to run and run so that the potential profit will make a difference to my account balance.

Your the man Stewart

no price action on this one (ie no pin bar or outside bar)

but price is approaching the big round number 1.6000
which corresponds to horizontal resistance and a downward facing trend line.

the daily chart is bearish

and we've had 280+ pips up without a pull back.

I'm betting the resistance will hold

I have a 50 pip s.l and a 100pip tp

I have hunch my sl may be too close and that price will actually touch the 1.6000 - but I have entered a bit early because I dont want to miss this trade by a few pips either.

I had some people wanting to use my blog as live trading signals. That really turned me off. I was using this as MY trading journal. You are welcome to follow along, but I was turned off when people started asking why I didnt post 5 minutes earlier or if I could sms or txt them when I'm exiting.

Well no. I am not a trading signal service.

I dont think I'll post all my trades here. (I have another private blog that I use as a trading journal now). But I've also had a couple of genuine people request that I post some trades and thoughts.

So yes. I will post some trades and thoughts here too.

500 pip down move - followed by a 360 pip up move
price is back at a supply area (the grey horizontal zone)
Outside bar indicates the end of hte up move.
Oscillator confirms the up move is ready to retrace.

So we have trend (2 ma.s) + pull back (oscillator) + trigger (outside bar)

Short with stop above the outside bar
Take profit is 1:1

Price in uptrend (MAs)
Pull back (oscillator at extreme indicating hte pull back may have finished)
Price action - candles are stalling and going sideways.
Entered as price broke to new high.

Stop at lows
Target is 1:1

Stopped out. Market reversed almost immediately after posting.

Debrief - no big deal. These trades go 1to1 more often that not. And my risk was small enough that no damage has been done. Its more important to look at the results over 10 to 20 trades than it is to look at a single trade or even 5 trades. I get enough trades that I can be ahead every month - then as Van Tharp writes......the system does NOT get you to your goals...its the money management that does that.

Your right there stewart - i think you have a probably better than a 50% shot at winning at the SR pivot zones with good price action as long as you keep the MM in tact. Well you proved that allready pretty much. Tex

Possible double top in euro.
Went a bit early when the stoch hooked.
Then market gave a good outside bar.
Added to my position on pull back of outside bar.

I would like to hold this position for a long time. I think hte euro is going down and is due for a couple of hundred pips of decline. Perhaps I'm right and I'll make money. Perhaps I'm wrong and I'll take a loss. We'll see.

Glad to see you posting again...one of the few journals worth reading here at FF.

My TP was hit on the EU.

First position 168 pips, with an initial risk of 100 pips. (1.1:1 reward to risk)

Second position 181 pips, with an initial risk of 50 pips (better than 3:1 reward to risk ratio)

Down trend now. (Moving avgs all lined up)
Sideways pull back (price stalling)
Pin bar in traffic. (perhaps price about to resume decline)
Oscillator hooking (pull back has gone far enough)

Shorted at red line.

Closed trade at +100 pips with 75 pip stop.

EU has been good to me this week. (just over 400 pips)

This was a counter trend trade, without any indicators. Just a hunch that we could see an upward punch.

Risk was only 20 pips and I was hoping for about 100 pips of profit. Because triangles can break either way, and I was trading against the trend, I was only prepared to stay in the trade if it took off and didnt look back.

My stop was at break even when I printed the chart and I had just closed half the position for +36 pips.

____________________________
I recent months I have been very discretionary in my trading. I am taking trades that are not my usual system, but going for better R:R ratios. My account is thanking me.

I have also reduced the number of pairs I trade. I watch 8 pairs but I am only trading the Eur/Usd and the Usd/Yen. I have been using the 8 pairs to get a better feel for the strenght / weakness of the usd and the yen. I can imagine myself just trading the euro/usd only in the months ahead. I am finding myself in agreement with Jacko who trades a bigger position size on just one pair, rather than multiple smaller positions over many pairs.

Downtrend (moving avgs)
Pull back (50% fib) and also area of prior support
Trigger - bearish candle and break of trendline

Stop was 50 pips

TP was 100. I closed at +83.


EDIT: not a bearish engulfing candle. Just a big bear candle on the break out.

Nicely done, looking at the market as it stands today (16th Dec) I wish I jumped on that bus with you. There is still an opportunity to get on this downtrend, I have given my thoughts on where it is possible to enter at this late stage for a further 100 pips or more.

I like TL's as you know and the picture shows a dotted line (inner TL) with a solid line (daily TL) and a round number close by, I can't get a fix on a 50% fib because I can't place a good downward TL, however, with the exclusion of the fib, two areas for a sell that look good to me are, 1.4550/600 (inner TL previous support) and 1.4600/50 (daily TL also previous support).

Stephen.

PS. The chart below is based on a 4 Hr one.