Difficult call for today after yesterday's drop. Dax has R most immediately on its 5m 200ema, but with the 200sma now beneath, this should lift it beyond this towards today's CP and 38.2% retrace from yesterday's high @ 12,138. Yesterday's S was the H4 200ema.
Higher R, and my highest for today, is R1 as there is a cluster of MA resistance around it, so around 250 should be tough to get through if it gets up there.
Dax pushing down from just before the Frankie open, and i think today's S1 @ 12,090 could be our first support level if the price gets there, so a kick up at the London open is a possibility off of that level. S1 also sits right on top of my H3 200ema. If it breaks below this level, then the next level of support should be the 76.4% from Tuesday's low @ 12,075, below which, the price will probably break those lows or perhaps double bottom.
The overall momentum is down on both Dax and Dow now, but, that doesn't mean that the price will not rally as we have been seeing most days. If we do rally today, I personally do not expect the price to break above yesterday's high. Around 12,170 or so looks realistic on the Dax, although today's CP @ 154 also looks like a fairly strong potential R level if the price lifts up there.
What we've got atm are opportunistic buyers buying at this 76.4% level vs longer term short positions who recognize that the greater momentum is down. Depends on whether enough longs come into the market to lift it a bit.
So a real fight going on atm at these critical S levels on both Dax & dow, this 76.4% on Dax, and 800 on Dow, both of which if broken could trigger some big selling today I feel.
Anyone trying to long Dax, I think today's CP looks like really tough potential R, even if it gets that high. I'm not in, but if it drops back to put in a higher low, I might be tempted. I'll post it if I do.
That H1 close did the trick didn't it. Actually, I missed a good opp just before the close of the hour on the 1m tf when the 100sma got beneath the price in support. I'll post a chart to show what i mean when I have time.
A morning for pinpoint entries and taking profits ( for those that had any ) early. Really back to where the London session opened now, with neither side giving any clear indication which way these markets are going to go today, momentum though still very much to the downside. Powell speaks at 13.30 London time, which may shift the markets one side or the other.
Today's S2 pivot on Dow is right on top of the daily 100sma @ 700, so a potential S level if these markets are going to come back from the abyss today.
