Trade the Dow/Dax

That late sell off last night on US stocks for me was in the barrel just waiting to pop that support which had been holding all day. We all have our own ways of identifying support, but mine was showing up nicely on my 15m tf 200sma which was positioned at 27,240 for the first pullback on the Dow at 12 noon UK time, a bit lower down at 234 for the second one @ 4.45pm, and again @ 234 when it was hit for the third time @ 7.30pm UK time. by which time, the weight of momentum was so heavily to the downside that it popped, and boy did it pop!, not a huge drop on % terms, but it was a late sell off on a Friday, which significantly, finished the session right down on the lows for the day, so no late signature rally which we normally see from Wall St, and that potentially bodes bearish for next week.

I won't be around Monday/Tuesday and perhaps for the rest of the week, so feel free to contribute to this thread, as more is always merrier, and a big thanks to those who have contributed, your views and opinions are always appreciated.

Nice weekend to all. I won't be around Mon/Tues or perhaps all week.

Trade safe.

Cat.

As it's my thread, I'm allowed to be the proud Dad, so if you're someone who likes a bit of music, here's my lad playing the piano at his school Summer concert a couple of weeks ago.

Just for the week ahead.

Hang Seng Index could be looking for another 1000pts drop to Weekly 200sma, but it might need some Trump tweets to get there...

Dow hit the Daily 20SMA, so its 50-50 for a counter trend rally as it did make a small late friday rally. I have the Daily 100ema 26418 as potential support, or Weekly 20MAs around 26320. Otherwise it could be another 900pts lower to Daily 200sma with some negative news.

Dax has a cluster of supports at 11930-960 on Weekly 100MAs, or down to Daily 200 at 11695?

Have to wait and see.

https://www.facebook.com/Timfour/vid...2428112781680/


Hi guys,

Been busy with non-trading stuff, hols etc, but just put this vid up on my FB page showing where I think we are right now with the Dow. The videos above I deleted by mistake, so sorry about that.

Google hangouts have been discontinued, so all vids, and live screenshare, which I hope to start this week, will be via my Facebook page. I'll try and post as much as I can on this thread as well, but the idea behind the screenshare is that I can leave it open for anyone who wants to check in whenever, and comment on TA and call my live trades including rationale etc, which is easier than posting here.

Not trading Dax atm, just concentrating on the US session.

Needless to say anyone who wants to follow this thread from now on, will have to have a Facebook account. For those who don't, now's the time to get one I guess, especially if you want to access the live screenshare which will be viewable only on FB. For those who don't have one, or don't want one, I'll post as much on here as I can as per usual.

One more thing, if anyone wants to send me a friend request on my FB page ' Dow Live ', make sure you say you are a trader from forex factory, so that I know you are not a Facebook generated friend request. Then I'll add you to the group. Link below -

https://www.facebook.com/Timfour

Sincerest apologies, the video 3 posts above has been on ' only me ' without me realizing, but it's now on public and can be viewed.

New thread, because as I'm no longer trading Dax, thought it would be better starting one without ' Dax ' in the title.

So this will be my last post on this thread, and for those who are interested, you can find the new one here : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=938500

Heya Tim, tried that and FB didnt give me the option to send you a message.... so here I am.... Pete from Godzone

Hi Pete. Got it mate!

Happy New Year dear traders! May 2021 bring all your hopes and aspirations to fruition.

Haven't been here for ages, but to begin the new year I thought I'd start the first trading week of the new year with a short video previewing the Dow Jones. The Dow is all I trade these days, mainly the US session. I no longer trade the Dax, but for anyone who does, as this thread is for both Dax and Dow, then please feel free to post discussion, trades, analysis, anything in fact as long as it is trade-related and focuses on the Dax and the Dow.

For my part, I will try to post a video as soon as I see something worth posting about, so a potentially important upcoming support or resistance level etc.

I am using facebook only because it is free, and it has a screen share facility. The quality isn't great, but it's good enough. I have made the video public, so as long as you have a FB account, anyone will be able to view it. For me, video is a much more effective way of showing what I want to share.

If you trade the Dax or the Dow, then you are more than welcome to contribute to this thread.

https://www.facebook.com/dow.jones.5...53807269869135

Well well well!

If you watched the video above, you'll know that I predicted the 31,000 area as potential strong resistance. Well, it didn't get that high, 30,805 to be exact, just below today's pivot R2. What that tells me is that indeed, the big money was looking for a top around the 31,000 level, but for some reason, it just didn't have the legs, and once it was clear that it had turned, Wall Street sold off hard at the New York open.

I did say 600 - 1000 pips was possible. So far it has fallen 933 pips today, a massive one-day fall, even for the Dow.

So support? It has already taken out the 61.8% from the previous low, and the 76.4% fib is at 29,752. If it takes out the previous low ( 21st December ) then I think we could be looking at 29,000 initially.

Big move up again on the Dow, and as I posted before, this 31,000 area is still a potentially big resistance area, up to I would say around 31,100 if it does get up there and breaks above the 31,000 level. I have today's pivot level R3 today at 30,968.

For those trading the Dax, I have potential resistance anywhere from the current price, 13,916, up to around the 950 level.

31,000 holding on Dow as you can see. Nice 300 pip drop after I posted yesterday.

Same applies today. Watch that 31,000 level from here up to around 31,100 or so.

Dow pushing up to 200 now, with today's R1 pivot at 224.

I'm watching this developing diversion pattern closely on the 30m tf.

The above diversion did the job, sending the price down 175 pips so far.

The 61.8% fib level has been a key support level during the past 24 hours ( yellow marker ) so we'll see if it will come into play again today. If it cracks, then the 76.4% ( orange marker ) may hold it if it is not to break lower.

Pepperstone has DAX at 100% Short Sentiment, the same as it did on Thursday before the big drop .

Interesting what this will do over the weekend.
I have it in the early stages of sell divergence but with support at 34812 (sell below) and resistance at 34893 (buy above).
Loved the piano recital - lucky you.
George