Trade the Dow/Dax

SMA13 on the 30m leading the way down.

The Dow is now down more than a 1000 points from the top. This could mean that it's time for a breather soon. The boys tend to like big swings in multiples of 250.

25650 does look like a potential bottom. If so, look for retrace to 26100ish before the big drop.

EDIT: So another 100 points down, and the bottom seems to be in place. Rally tomorrow, dump on Monday? Twt.

Back into this range before one-way ticket south?

Told ya

Morning!

Dax moving up currently after putting in a higher low earlier this morning, so I guess we'll have to see if we can assess the likely direction for the remainder of the day.

The 76.4% from today's high is at 108 just above, and there is a lot of resistance just above that ass well, though it could move higher up to the 30m 200ema @ 152.

It could just as easily drop off of the London open though.

More later I hope.

Just to add to the post above, I think there is more downside to come on both Dax and Dow, but as we know from last night's pullback after some heavy selling, these markets really can do anything and are very volatile atm. I don't think we will see lower lows today, but I could be wrong. If this support holds, then this could be a range day between say 150 to perhaps R1 on Dax ( 180 ) and the lows we have seen today. We'll see.

Thought Dax might pop up again to trap any shorts in this very slow market atm. I've put the fib on to see if the price reacts to any of them, so 61.8 @ 096, and 76.4% @ 104.

Price reacting to the bigger 76.4% though which I posted earlier.( 110 )

Hi New to forum, just wondering what your thoughts are regarding Dow when the decision comes through this afternoon.

Hi gabnic.

I can only comment on what my charts are showing me irrespective of news, announcements or whatever, because how the markets react to news is totally beyond our control.

Dow, if it does anything today, looks to me technically more like lifting than falling any significant way. If I had to put a level on it, I'd say back up to 26,000.

That said, the higher time frames, so H1 and higher, have Dow in a down trend, so it's a tricky one to call.

Hope that gives you something to chew on.

This 76.4% resistance level on Dax is a tough one atm, but, as I have a long bias on the Dow for this afternoon ( I might be wrong of course ) Dax will break this to the north to move up to what I think may be around R1 @ 184, right on top of the H1 200ema also at that price.

thanks Cat, maybe the market has already adjusted to the news and its actual implementation has already been factored in.

One thing I've learned is that you can only make trading decisions based on what you see, and hopefully trust, in front of your eyes on your screens. Best to disregard everything else.

been following your link for a few weeks and always interested in how you see the market and always happy to learn from your insight.

Thank you, much appreciated. It is my intention to provide far more insight into how I trade than I currently do, but I have to admit that I find this form of communication via keyboard far from suitable for my trading style off of very small time frames, and calling live trades on a forum is something I need to get used to. I tried using facebook live webcam conferencing, but apart from the 100+ random FB requests I was getting everyday, generated by FB, the open talk made it difficult to concentrate as one has to. What I have in mind perhaps for the future is a live screen share on youtube so that anyone who wants to can tune in and actually watch me trade live, on my charts. I'll see.

That was an emphatic rejection off the the 30m 200ema/sma on dax, both of which I have together @ 145. Potential support levels below today's CP are the new fib levels, which are now -

50% @ 054
61.8% @ 034
76.4% @ 008

Wow Cat that would be fantastic to actually follow a real live trader who is actually doing it rather than just talking about it. Skype may be another avenue where you could do it and not get any prompt or annoying distractions.

That Dow resistance in case you don't have it, was the 15 200ema to the pip, which I have @ 25,868. Might be tough to get through that today, but we all know how Dow can rally in the US session, so nothing can be ruled out. Support on Dow could well be around this 700 level, so watch out for that. Lower than that, I'm not at all sure, though the 61.8% from yesterday's low is just below 700.