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  • #21
  • May 2, 2019 9:30am May 2, 2019 9:30am
I know this is a Dax and Dow thread.
Just putting it out there with the Commodities prices dropping, I think ASX200 is looking for a bit of a fall, perhaps back to 6300, 6267, 6250 zone.
  • #22
  • May 2, 2019 9:40am May 2, 2019 9:40am
Quoting PariCovek
I know this is a Dax and Dow thread. Just putting it out there with the Commodities prices dropping, I think ASX200 is looking for a bit of a fall, perhaps back to 6300, 6267, 6250 zone.
Post whatever you like mate, as long as it relates to what we're doing

This resistance is the 76.4% from the day's high in case anyone is wondering.
  • #23
  • May 2, 2019 9:52am May 2, 2019 9:52am
Surprised by that though, as that strong 10m candle following the decisive rejection on the double bottom looked like the price would easily get to CP, but it just ran out of steam.
  • #24
  • May 2, 2019 10:07am May 2, 2019 10:07am
SMA20@1h = SMA240@5m (blue) provided solid reistance. The constellation of SMAs 20 and 40 (red and white) tells me that this is not going anywhere fast. Might just call it a day.
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  • #25
  • May 2, 2019 10:21am May 2, 2019 10:21am
Quoting medici
SMA20@1h = SMA240@5m (blue) provided solid reistance. The constellation of SMAs 20 and 40 (red and white) tells me that this is not going anywhere fast. Might just call it a day. {image}
How wrong I was!
  • #26
  • May 2, 2019 10:26am May 2, 2019 10:26am
Quoting medici
{quote} How wrong I was!
Don't feel bad. This bull market is over. Up until last week, that would have been bought right back up, but now we're looking to 25,500 I'd say.
  • #27
  • May 2, 2019 10:38am May 2, 2019 10:38am
26200-02 is next target on 4H 200sma.
  • #28
  • May 2, 2019 10:46am May 2, 2019 10:46am
Quoting cat
{quote} Don't feel bad. This bull market is over. Up until last week, that would have been bought right back up, but now we're looking to 25,500 I'd say.
Thank you Not the least concerned

As you say, this confirms that the bull market is over.

Also, a constant lesson - anticipation gets in the way of optimal trading. My range bar chart was speaking loudly and clearly....
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  • #29
  • May 2, 2019 11:02am May 2, 2019 11:02am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you Not the least concerned As you say, this confirms that the bull market is over. Also, a constant lesson - anticipation gets in the way of optimal trading. My range bar chart was speaking loudly and clearly.... {image}
It's a trap we all fall into, concentrating on what we expect the price to do whilst overlooking what it is actually doing.
  • #30
  • Edited May 3, 2019 4:25am May 2, 2019 11:47am | Edited May 3, 2019 4:25am
Here's a 4 hour chart of the Dow with a 2% envelope around the SMA50. The edges of the envelope have been visited on a, more or less, weekly basis this year....except for the month of April.

Today marks a definite shift in volatility. Finally...
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  • #31
  • May 2, 2019 12:36pm May 2, 2019 12:36pm
Quoting medici
Here's a 4 hour chart of the Dow with a 2% envelope around the SMA50. The edges of the envelope have been visited on a, more or less, weekly baiss this....excpet for the month of April. Today marks a definite shift in volatility. Finally... {image}
Medici, roughly volatility (envelope amplitude) has been divided by 2
  • #32
  • May 2, 2019 12:47pm May 2, 2019 12:47pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33
  • May 2, 2019 1:43pm May 2, 2019 1:43pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Medici, roughly volatility (envelope amplitude) has been divided by 2
Yes, I do keep a 1% envelope around SMA50@1h, in order to detect the regime shift.
  • #34
  • May 2, 2019 2:10pm May 2, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes, I do keep a 1% envelope around SMA50@1h, in order to detect the regime shift.
Logical

Let me be clearer.

DOW Price Action fluctuates around 25.000
DAX Price Action fluctuates around 12.500
French CAC 40 fluctuated around 5.000 now 6000

the Gann Fractal system I used is related with Price ACtion

DAX was said to fluctuate within a Price Fractal 0-10.000

If volatility expands you just have to double the actual parameter 62.5 Then the Amplitude of the Envelope 256 is 2 X 125 = 250 = 2 % of 12.500

If volatility contracts or decrease you just have to divide the Envelope parameter by 2.
62.5 / 2 = 31. 25 . Then the Amplitude of the Envelope is 62.5= 1/2 % of 12.500

10.000 / 8 = 1.250 = the Gann Octave

if your Price Range is 1.000 Gann Octave = 1.000 / 8 = 125 which is what I use for building the Envelope 256 (brown)

As of today the Envelope parameter is 62.5 for the Envelope 256 Time Unit. This means that the Amplitude of this Envelope is 2 x 62.5 = 125 = 1 % of 12.500
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35
  • May 3, 2019 1:47am May 3, 2019 1:47am
Good morning!

I'm on Dax this morning.. Looks like the price will go higher, though when exactly? Most immediate S seems to be today's CP @ 12,332, and beneath that from the current high of the day, the 76.4% fib @ 325 and the 76.4% @ 320.

To the upside. my highest level is R1 @ 404. From yesterday;s high, the 61.8% looks like it could be strong potential R @ 364, and above that the 76.4% @ 382.

ps - couple more support levels ( potential ) - from yesterday's low to the high puts the 61.8% @ 315, and the 76.4% @ 294. The H2 100 sma is also one to watch @ 290, as that held the price during the Asian session early yesterday.
  • #36
  • May 3, 2019 3:01am May 3, 2019 3:01am
Of course it's NFP today, but I like the look of this 30m diversion with MACD on the Dow, so any longs out there may be wise to sit on BE and hope that the long side plays out.
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  • #37
  • May 3, 2019 3:08am May 3, 2019 3:08am
DAX 1 Day / 1 Mn
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  • #38
  • May 3, 2019 9:29am May 3, 2019 9:29am
Quoting cat
Of course it's NFP today, but I like the look of this 30m diversion with MACD on the Dow, so any longs out there may be wise to sit on BE and hope that the long side plays out. {image}
Good afternoon

Another way of drawing the same conclusion, without oscillators, is to use the SMA13 0.25% envelope.

It provided support all the way up to R1, and highlighted an overbought condition, and possible sell setup, there.
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  • #39
  • May 5, 2019 6:42pm May 5, 2019 6:42pm
trumps tariffs has thrown markets off just as they were continuing to move up...This could be the catalyst to start things heading downwards and its long overdue.
  • #40
  • May 6, 2019 1:57am May 6, 2019 1:57am
Trump's upset the markets hasn't he, silly boy, and after such a promising rally on Friday as well.

London closed today, so it will be up to New York I think whether the rot continues today. Looking at it from a purely technical viewpoint despite all the headlines this morning, this can also be seen as a continuation of the selling which began on May 1st, so although the overnight turn around is pretty dramatic, where we are now is in line with the technicals. These markets can go a lot lower today/this week, and certainly right now, the momentum is well and truly down.
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