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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #161
  • Apr 16, 2017 3:39pm Apr 16, 2017 3:39pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook


The pair has been on the decline since July 2008. It witnessed about 61.8 Fib retracement in January 2014 and peaked just shy of 76.4 Fib retracement by the end of that year. The pair has rejected southwards the major descending trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour) and is now respecting another descending trendline from the high of 2014 (navy colour). Between December 2016 and January 2017, price action consolidated around 38.2 Fib retracement of the July 2008 decline. After a brief southward move, price retested the same zone in March 2017 before it drove further southwards four weeks ago. The order flow in April has been largely under the control of sellers but a major support zone which intersects with the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2012 (serving as a support) is just about 45 pips away and there is likelihood of some sideways move or reaction upwards at the zone before the southward drive gathers much impetus. Should price break the support southwards that will expose the 110.400/450 handle, the low of 2016 which has served as a multi-year support. The technicals on the weekly time frame support further southward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the pair is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of March 2016 around the 38.2 Fib zone and an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) has formed, indicating an increase in momentum. Price action has formed two descending price waves with accompanying pullbacks and a third price wave is still in play but there is likelihood of a pullback before a further move southwards particularly as price action has hit support in the shape of an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. However, given the price momentum and the order flow context, unless the fundamentals contrive otherwise, the major technical outlook is for a bearish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Apr._16,_2017.png Size: 36 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #162
  • Apr 16, 2017 4:10pm Apr 16, 2017 4:10pm
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The descending trend that the pair kicked off in July 2007 is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, a major retracement of the July 2007 drop was initiated in November 2012 and peaked around the 61.8 Fib zone in June 2015. Price action was sideways for a few weeks in that zone before it driove southwards. Thereafter, price action produced two major descending price waves with pullbacks between November 2015 and December 2016,; the most recent pullback being around the 23.6 Fib zone. Price action is now respecting an inner descending trendline from the high of April 2015. Although the immediate support is about 100 pips away, the technicals and order flow context on the weekly time frame indicate a slow down of further bearish move. The bear candlesticks are not significant in size and bull candlesticks jostle for recognition. The bears may have to overcome the support formed by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 before being favoured for a further southward move. There is another support zone around 134.073 which needs be contended with by the bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of November 2016, which is the 23.6 Fib retracement of the decline from the high of July 2007. Recent price action was around a zone that has held as an S/R zone in the past and created the Jan 12, 2017 gap (khaki rectangle). Although sellers have been very much in control since the beginning of April, price action is now at the end of an ascending triangle created by the descending trendline and an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of October 2016. Should sellers break the support line of the triangle, the initial target is likely to be the low of the Brexit drop, around 133.130. Although the technicals on the H4 are in favour of a further bearish continuation, it may be better to wait for price action to retest the immediate resistance zone (khaki colour) for confidence in a southward drive .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_Apr._16,_2017.png Size: 38 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #163
  • Apr 16, 2017 4:15pm Apr 16, 2017 4:15pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair began a declining trend in June 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action began a major retracement in September 2016 and peaked to around the 76.4 Fib zone in November 2016. Since then, price action has made one descending wave with a pullback and the second price wave southwards is in play. The last weekly candlestick was a strong bearish engulfing candle that breached two support zones and closed shy of the next support by just 54 pips. This shows a strong intent on the part of sellers.

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On the H4 time frame, a major descending trendline has held for a while but price action has moved lower to respect an inner descending trendline (magenta colour), representing an increase in momentum. The price momentum hit and slightly breached a support line created by an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. The last two sessions on the H4 time frame last week saw a feeble attempt by the bulls to push upwards; ending with formation of relatively tiny doji-like candlesticks. Based on the order flow context on the H4 time frame, this portends a further bearish move before any retracement. An initial target, perhaps before the pullback, is likely to be near 108.000, around the immediate support; which is about 78 pips southwards.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Apr._16,_2017.png Size: 37 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #164
  • Apr 18, 2017 4:48am Apr 18, 2017 4:48am
GBPJPY Technical Update

Quoting KeenPips
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The descending trend that the pair kicked off in July 2007 is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, a major retracement of the July 2007 drop was initiated in November 2012 and peaked around the 61.8 Fib zone in June 2015. Price action was sideways for a few weeks in that zone before it driove southwards. Thereafter, price action produced two major descending price waves with pullbacks between November 2015 and December 2016,; the most recent pullback being around the 23.6 Fib zone. Price action is now...
If you are tracking GBPJPY notice that price action retraced to the area I indicated (khaki colour) on the H4 time frame on Sunday and rejected it southwards with over 100 pips.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #165
  • Apr 23, 2017 3:09pm Apr 23, 2017 3:09pm
AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) formed by the high of 2014. After the price action created three price waves to the downside, it initiated a major retracement in April 2016 which culminated at the 50 Fib zone in February 2017 and validated the descending trendline from 2014. Price action operated sideways within the 50 Fib zone for sometime in March. Since then the bears took control and pushed the price southwards. Last week, the price action touched the support line created by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 but the weekly candlestick formed last week was doji-like and thus not a decisive move. Price action would need to breach the support line before an impetus for further bearish move can be seen. Should price action succeed in this, the immediate target is likely to be the next support around 79.278. The technicals on the weekly time frame are in support of a bearish mood.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action since March 2017 has been operating in a descending channel (dark violet colour) but since the beginning of April the price action has moved to the lower half of the channel, creating a pennant-like formation, portending an increase in momentum southwards. It should be noted that the most recent price action is within a zone which has flipped as an S/R role for a while. As there is a confluence of barriers in this zone, price action may struggle before it successfully breaks below the zone. This is likely to expose the next support zone, around 79.278, as the likely target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #166
  • Apr 23, 2017 3:28pm Apr 23, 2017 3:28pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

A down trend has persisted on the weekly time frame since January 2016. The trend witnessed a retracement in October 2016 which peaked at the 86.8 Fib level in December 2016. Since then price action has been on a southward drive but with strong bullish resistance. Overall, price action is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) on the weekly time frame. However, the nearest support is provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 2016. Last week a ‘spinning top’ like candlestick was formed after the strong and relatively big bearish candlestick which formed two weeks’ ago. This portends a likely bearish continuation. Should price action breach the immediate support created by the ascending trendline from the low of September 2016, the next target is likely to be around 105.250, which adjoins an area of a multi-year low and support zone. Otherwise, any upward move – likely to be corrective, may target the immediate support around 110.210, which adjoins the 50 Fib retracdement of the January 2016 drop.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour). One descending price wave had been completed, including a pullback which was followed by a period of consolidation three weeks’ ago. A second price wave southwards began two weeks’ ago and is still very much in play with a pullback initiated last week. The most recent price action indicated that the bears were trying to exert some influence to begin a further southward drive. Nevertheless, it is much likely that price action will retrace upward to the resistance created by the descending trendline, before any further southward move may be seen as reliable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Apr._23,_2017.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #167
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:16pm Apr 30, 2017 3:16pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the pair has been operating in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame since mid-2016. In January and Febrary 2017, price action moved to the lower part of the channel. It surged upwards in the latter part of February 2017 and flagged downwards to the lower part again in March and early part of April. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bullish candlestick moved the price upwards within the channel. This was followed by another bullish candlestick last week which moved the price towards the resistance line of the channel but never reached it. Apparently the upward price action was held by the weekly resistance zone around 1.36947. Should price action breach that zone, the next resistance to contend with is likely to be around 1.37939, an area last visited by prce action in January 2016. Nevertheless, the technicals on the weekly time frame support a further northward move.

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The technicals and order flow context of the H4 time frame strongly favour the bulls. The two ascending tendlines (magenta colour) are well-angled for enhanced momentum to the northside and since April 2017 the candlesticks have been predominantly bullish. Three ascending price waves have been fully completed on he H4 time frame and a fourth is in play, much likely to produce a pullback before any further northward move can see further impetus, more so since recent price action has been within a resistance zone. The wicky-top candlesticks recently formed on the H4 time frame give further clue as to the struggle of sellers to wrestle control from buyers, perhaps indicating imminence of a pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Apr._30,_2017.png Size: 32 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #168
  • Edited 3:54pm Apr 30, 2017 3:42pm | Edited 3:54pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued the decline it started from the high of 2014. On the weekly time frame, in August 2016, the price action produced a 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of 2014 to the low of 2015 after two price waves to the downside. Thereafter, price respected a descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of 2014. Since then price ranged within a descending channel. An ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2015 has been respected as support and last week a big bearish candlestick, which engulfed seven previous candlesticks attacked this support around 0.68820 but could not breach it. It should be noted that this area is also adjoined to a horizontal support zone. Should the zone be broken southwards, the initial target is likely to be around 0.67000, the origin of a northward move in May 2016.

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On the daily time frame, price action since February 2017 has been on the descent within the channel observed earlier on the weekly time frame. The technicals and order flow context show further bearish move but the spatial relationship of the MAs I use indicate some sluggishness, apparently a decrease in momentum is to be expected. There is likely to be a pullback before any further southward move; particularly as price action is in an area which has acted as a strong support zone for a couple of times in the past and has not been breached since May 2016. A breach to the downside is likely to expose 0.66732, the low of May 2016.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The technicals on the H4 time frame are in support of further bearish move. After a period of consolidation for much of the second and third weeks in April, price action has moved strongly southwards respecting a well-angled trendline (magenta colour) with the MAs well aligned for increased downward momentum. Although the price action in the most recent sessions last week, notably on Friday, showed a period of sideways operation, the descending trendline has not been strongly negated. Nevertheless, price action may make a corrective move before further southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Apr._30,_2017.png Size: 30 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #169
  • May 3, 2017 6:28am May 3, 2017 6:28am
It is important to emphasize that the 'weekly technical outlook' on this thread represents a perspective based on technical analysis to identify the potential scenarios that could favour short-term swing or trend trading. Entering the market in the direction of any bias will depend on price action and market conditions satisfying specific criteria a trader may be using. No trader who wants long-term success would enter a market without using some checklists and a trade plan.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #170
  • May 7, 2017 3:32pm May 7, 2017 3:32pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the pair has been on a decline overall, on the weekly time frame price action since February 2016 has been within a 550-pip range (bounded in saddlebrown coloured-horizontal lines). After a northward push in January 2017, price action consolidated at the upper half of the range for the next eight weeks. This region has held as both a support zone and a resistance zone in the past. The first week in April saw a relatively large bearish candlestick breaking below the upper half of the range but lacked follow-through; it was followed by three weeks of sideways move. Last week, a bearish candlestick breached the sideways mode; a strong break below this may lead to a role flip of the zone, turning it into a resistance zone for further bearish move. Such a move may initially target 0.72920, the immediate weekly support and then expose 0.71707, the support of the range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the most recent price action saw the buyers pushing price upward. However, any upward push is likely to be corrective; much likely to target the immediate resistance zone which adjoins the monthly pivot and the 50/61.2 Fib zone from the high of April 2017 and the low of last week (magenta coloured horizontal lines). Overall, however, the order flow context shows a preeminence of sellers and the technicals on the H4 time frame are in support of further bearish move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_May_7,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #171
  • May 7, 2017 3:45pm May 7, 2017 3:45pm
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since June 2015 the pair has been in a descending mode. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in a descending channel (purple coloured lines) since June 2015. In the third week of April 2017, price broke the resistance line of the descending channel to the upside. Last week’s candlestick was relatively bullish and took the price towards the immediate resistance zone around 1.49724. Price action has pulled away from an outer ascending trendline from the low of April 2012 and is respecting an inner ascending trendline (orangered colour), indicating an increase in momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) but the momentum seems to be weakening with the most recent candlesticks bearish in disposition. Given the fact that this occurred near a weekly resistance zone, there may be a retracement to the downside before any further bullish push. This pullback may be to the region of the previous swing high, which adjoins an S/R area on the H4 time frame and the 32.8 Fib zone from the low of April 2017 to the most recent high; mapped in saddlebrown coloured horizontal lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_May_7,_2017.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #172
  • May 11, 2017 6:27am May 11, 2017 6:27am
EURAUD Technical Update

Quoting KeenPips
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook Since June 2015 the pair has been in a descending mode....On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) but the momentum seems to be weakening with the most recent candlesticks bearish in disposition. Given the fact that this occurred near a weekly resistance zone, there may be a retracement to the downside before any further bullish push. This pullback may be to the region of the previous swing high, which adjoins an S/R area on the H4 time frame and the 32.8 Fib zone...
Price action since Monday has been on a descent and nearing a most likely reaction (support) zone - identified on Sunday (bound in Saddlebrown coloured horizontal lines) - before any further possible upward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Update_H4_May_11,_2017.png Size: 37 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #173
  • Edited 3:54pm May 14, 2017 3:26pm | Edited 3:54pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued on the decline but the momentum decreased last week. On the weekly time frame, a spinning-top like bearish candlestick was formed, indicating a lack of follow-through of the bearish move initiated three weeks ago. It may take this weeks price action for market to give clear direction as the buyers are still very much in the fray. The technicals on the weekly time frame indicate a slow down in momentum and a period of sideways operation may set in before momentum picks up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_May_14,_2017.png Size: 33 KB


On the daily time frame, the buyers took control of price action in the middle of last week and the technicals on the daily time frame indicate that a further push upwards is likely to be in the offing. For example, the MAs I prefer to use are no longer aligned for bearish momentum and the RSI sloped slightly to the upside. Thus, even though the main market direction is southwards, we may expect either a period of consolidation or a retracement first before the southward move resumes, particularly as current price action is near a weekly resistance zone land marked by 0.72920, an area last visited in early January. A much likely target of any retracement of price action northwards is the immediate minor resistance zone around 0.74539 and 0.74800, which adjoins the 50/61.2 Fib zone of the most recent swing low.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_May_14,_2017.png Size: 45 KB


Alternative technical biases
Main direction: southwards, particularly should price action break below 0.72920
Short-term disposition: consolidation around price location or northward retracement to around 0.74539 and 0.74800.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #174
  • May 14, 2017 4:04pm May 14, 2017 4:04pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Quoting KeenPips
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook Price action on the pair has been operating in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame since mid-2016. In January and February 2017, price action moved to the lower part of the channel. It surged upwards in the latter part of February 2017 and flagged downwards to the lower part again in March and early part of April....


As noted on this thread three weeks ago (on Sunday April 30, 2017), price action on the pair has been operating in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame since mid-2016. In January and February 2017, price action moved to the lower part of the channel. It surged upwards in the latter part of February 2017 and flagged downwards to the lower part again in March and early part of April. Since the beginning of this month, price action has disposed northwards. On the weekly time frame, the gravestone doji candlestick formed two weeks ago gave way to a northward directional candlestick last week although sellers’ pressure limited its momentum. Presently, price action is operating near a resistance zone which was last visited in February 2016. Should price action breach the zone, it has to contend with the resistance line of the channel very close by. We may expect some sideways operation in this area before the market makes a decision to either reject the channel southwards or breach it to the upside. At any rate, the momentum for an upward movement appears suspect at the moment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has breached the resistance of the channel and formed wicky candlesticks at the immediate resistance zone noted on the weekly time frame. The formation of wicky candlesticks indicate a slow down in upward momentum. Although the technicals on the daily time frame favor a northward disposition, a barrier is the minor resistance zone which is less than 55 pips away around 1.38307. On the flip side, should price retrace southwards into the channel, a likely support can be found around 1.35838, which adjoins the 38.2 Fib level of the most recent swing high from the low of April 13.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_Daily_May_14,_2017_001.png Size: 49 KB


Alternative technical biases
Main direction: northwards, particularly should price action break above 1.38307
Short-term disposition: southwards, likely retracement from within the zone of current price location to around 1.35838

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #175
  • May 16, 2017 10:43am May 16, 2017 10:43am
AUDUSD Technical Update

The AUDUSD is pushing upwards towards an interesting S/R area, land marked by 0.7446 and 0.7505. A rejection of the zone southwards is likely to produce a turnaround for south bound trading; otherwise an upward break of the zone with H4 candlestick close above 0.7505 is likely to produce further interest among buyers.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has continued on the decline but the momentum decreased last week. On the weekly time frame, a spinning-top like bearish candlestick was formed, indicating a lack of follow-through of the bearish move initiated three weeks ago. It may take this weeks price action for market to give clear direction as the buyers are still very much in the fray. The technicals on the weekly time frame indicate a slow down in momentum and a period of sideways operation may set in before momentum picks up. {image} On the daily...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #176
  • May 21, 2017 4:08pm May 21, 2017 4:08pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a period of ambivalence in March, the pair has maintained a northward disposition since April. On the monthly time frame, price action has moved upward beyond the area of consolidation created between December 2016 and April 2017. A possible target of such upward move is the immediate resistance around the 1.14580 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (navy coloured lines) for quite a while. In April, price action moved from the support line and followed through with an increase in momentum towards the resistance, energized by the factor of the French presidential elections. After a period of consolidation in the latter part of April, price action broke the resistance line of the channel with an increased momentum. An ascending trendline (chocolate coloured line) has emerged but yet to be validated as the price action took the price further above it. There is likely to be a retest of the channel and/or a validation of the trendline before confidence in a bullish continuation can be had; particularly so as recent price action has just pierced through a horizontal resistance zone around 1.11160. Should a follow-through of the bullish move happen this week, a likely target will be the region of 1.14580 noted earlier on the monthly time frame. This area has not been visited in 2017 and may be attractive to big players on long trades.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, buyers pushed price upward for the most part of last week and price broke above the channel resistance last week Tuesday. However, shortly after, the momentum slowed and on Thursday sellers tangled for a retracement before a further upward push. In the last two sessions on Friday, the upward momentum slowed down. Should sellers exert further pressure, price may retest the channel at an area that adjoins the 50/32.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the low of May 12, bounded by saddlebrown horizontal lines in the attached H4 chart. Otherwise, an upward continuation is likely to target the 1.14580 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly if price breaks above the 1.14580 area; southward, should price bounce back from the 1.14580 area.

Short-term: consolidation around current price location or retracement to around 1.11160 (or the 32.8 Fib zone).


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #177
  • May 21, 2017 4:15pm May 21, 2017 4:15pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been disposed northward for a while but momentum has waned. On the weekly time frame, last week the pair moved from an area of consolidation where price action operated in the previous two weeks. Buyers took control of price action and pushed the pair into the immediate resistance zone where buyers’ further attempt to push price beyond the zone was resisted by sellers.

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On the daily time frame, price action rejected an outer ascending trendline (in chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (in navy colour). However, the order flow context, with an increae in the relative size of bearish candles, indicate that the buyers are not fully in control. The pullback of price action following the French presidential elections showed a strong bearish influence, and since then the bullish candles have not been particularly dominant in size. There may be a period of consolodiation in the offing, perhaps before another retracement; particularly as price action has reached a zone that has served as a support zone on a number of times in the past and last visited in June 2016. Will the zone experience a role flip, becoming resistance on this visit? If a retracement takes place and price bounces off the ascending trendline (in navy colour), the upward move may be a trigger for further bullish push perhaps with the next resistance zone around the 1.65068 area as target. However, should price action break below the trendline, this may be a beginning of a southward turnaround, and with an initial target being the next support zone around the 1.59197 area. This may expose the monthly pivot around 1.56272.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Recent price action on the H4 time frame shows that buyers and sellers are in battle for control. The momentum for a northward move is waning, indicated by the weak slopes of the MAs I use and the fact that the most recent sessions saw the bears in control. Should this lead to a topping formation, we may expect price action to retest the ascending trendline (in navy colour) around the 1.59470 area, which adjoins the immediate support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly should price action bounce off the H4 trendline (in navy colour) upwards or break above the 1.63047 area; southward, should price action break below the trendline around 1.59470.

Short-term: consolidation around current price location or retracement towards 1.59470.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #178
  • Edited 4:28pm May 28, 2017 4:00pm | Edited 4:28pm
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been mainly on an upward move since October 2015. On the weekly time frame, after a 32.8 Fib retracement of the swing from the low of October 2015 to the high of October 2016, price action entered a period of consolidation (indicated in the khaki coloured rectangle) and an ascending trendline from the low of October 2015 respected. Price action in the last two weeks saw the bulls in control, indicated by relatively big bullish candlesticks. As the price action last week was near the immediate resistance zone around the 0.87744 area, momentum for further upward move may be limited. However, should price action breach the area to the upside, the immediate target is likely to be around the 0.88550 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is primarily on a northward move. Since May, two upward price waves have been consummated and a third is very much in play. This may consummate upon a further upward move, perhaps to the region of the next resistance around 0.87744, with a pullback to retest the ascending trendline (in magenta colour) or the immediate support around the 0.86720 area.

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Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: northwards, particularly if price action breaks above the 0.93070 area
Short-term: sideways operation/retracement to around the 0.86720 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #179
  • May 28, 2017 4:25pm May 28, 2017 4:25pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been primarily on the decline since April 2014. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (in chocolate colour) from the high of 2014. Price action in the past five weeks was sideways around a significant resistance zone and some pips shy of the 23.6 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of April 2014 to the low of 2017. Any northward move is likely to target the next resistance zone around the 1.33470 area. However, as last weeks candlestick is relatively bearish and bigger than the preceding candlestick which was bullish there is a possibility of a further southward move to at least test the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of January 2017, which is acting as the immediate support. A break of the trendline will expose the 1.23434 handle, which was the origin of a rally in April.

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On the daily time frame, it is apparent that price action has formed an ascending channel (green colour) since February. Price was sideways around the distal part of the channel for much of last week but sellers pushed price to the proximal channel line with a strong move on Friday. Should the channel break southwards, an immediate target is likely to be the 1.26860 area, the immediate support area. Technically, this is more likely than an upward push to the distal channel line.

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On the H4 time frame, the wicky candlesticks formed from Monday to Thursday last week indicated a period of indecision and a flattening formation which paved the way for the strong bearish move on Friday. In general, the order flow context showed sellers in strong control of the market. Nevertheless, although the technicals on the H4 time frame support a further southward move, the momentum has diminished. This may likely result in a pullback, perhaps to at least the 1.28681 area. Such a pullback, however, is likely to be followed by another price wave southwards.

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Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: southwards
Short-term: southwards/pullback upwards to at least the 1.28681 area

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #180
  • May 28, 2017 4:36pm May 28, 2017 4:36pm
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair is on a descending mode. On the weekly time frame, a descending trendline from the high of August 2015 is respected by price action. Four weeks ago, price action paused in an area close to the trendline and was followed by two doji-like candlesticks which indicated a lack of upward commitment. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick was formed on the weekly time frame which further validated the descending trendline and gave credence to the intent of sellers to control the market. A likely target of a further bearish drive is the immediate support around the 1.79557 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has moved with momentum to respect an inner descending trendline (in magenta colour) and is within a few pips of a minor support zone around 1.805700, which is likely to be breached as a key target is the immediate major support zone around 1.79557 and 1.78535, the beginning of a rally on April 18, 2017. However, price action may offer a pullback before the target is reached, particularly to retest the descending trendline or revert to a mean value, perhaps around the 1.83000 area (the immediate minor resistance area on the H4 time frame). Nothing technically indicates a bullish reversal on the H4 time frame, except if the pullback to consummate the present descending wave fails and the descending trendline is broken to the upside; perhaps, owing to fundamental factors.

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Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: southwards
Short-term: southwards/pullback upwards to at least the 1.83000 area

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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