Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has maintained a predominantly declining trend since July 2014. Recently, price action on the weekly time frame was largely sideways but the descending market structure holds. All the technicals on the weekly time frame still favour further southward price action. After a northward pullback in January 2017, for three weeks in February price action was in sideways mode around the monthly pivot but this was rejected southwards last week with a bearish move. However, the move was limited by some bullish struggle. Should the bears break free, an initial target is likely to be the immediate support around 1.2150, which may be extended to 1.1995 – a level which is a mullti-year low and a significant area of support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, recent price action resulted in a southward price wave and a pull back developed as part of the process of completing the first descending price wave. If this pull back retests the immediate weekly resistance around 1.2398 (which adjoins the 50 Fib retracement of the recent drop), or validates the descending trendline by a southward rejection, the second southward price wave may be in the offing; this may target 1.2155, the immediate weekly support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Analysis

The pair maintains a northward disposition on both the monthly and weekly time frames. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel for a long while. Last week, a relatively large bullish candlestick formed, which overshadowed six previous candlesticks – showing a strong bullish intent. A likely target of any further move upwards will be the immediate resistance around 1.3590.



On the H4 time frame, price action has moved to a lower part of the channe and is respecting a mid-channel line (magenta colour). The last candlestick was a bearish engulfing type. A recognizable flag pattern (Navy) corresponds with a negative divergence on the RSI, perhaps implying that a southwards move is in the offing. Apparently there is likely to be a bearish pullback before any further upward move on this pair. A likely first target is the monthly pivot (1.3197), which adjoins the immediate support on the H4 time frame. As current price action is around an S/R zone on the H4 time frame, a break of the flag southwards should be the first indication that this target may be open for grabs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair commenced an ascending trend in November 2015. Since then, price action has formed two ascending price waves with complete pull backs. The most recent pull back, a 38.2% Fib retracement of the rally from November 2015 occurred in December 2016 and was retested during the early weeks of 2017. After operating in a range for much of February, price action formed a bearish candlestick two weeks ago just below the range but was hindered by a bullish struggle. Last week, a relatively big bullish candlestick formed as an ndication of the intention of bulls to dispose the market further upwards from the range. Should this materialize, an initial target is likely to be the immediate resistace around 0.8755, which may expose the 0.9023 handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, the price action has moved away from the major trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (navy colour) – an indication of an increased momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Price action and order flow on the H4 time frame favour the bulls. However, as price action is operating around an S/R zone on the H4 time frame, any further move upwards will start with another bullish cabdlestick that rejects the zone and take away the resistance around 0.8660.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the ascent on the monthly time frame since December 2015. On the weekly time frame, the order flow has seen two clear price waves northwards with accompanying pullbacks and the major ascending trendline has been well respected. The most recent price action saw a 32.8% Fib retracement of the 2016 high from the November 2015 low and a bounce off the ascending trendline, perhaps preparatory to another price wave upwards. A hammer candlestick formed three weeks ago signposted the follow-up bullish action of the past two weeks. The bulls apparently seem to be in control and the technicals on the weekly time frame are in support. However, realize that price action is at a significant resistance zone around 0.8787 and there are other minor hindrances on the way up, 70 – 150 pips. Thus, any long trade should best wait for a retracement to be profitable, worthwhile or less risky.



On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel and has recently moved to the upper half of the channel (navy colour channel lines) and is respecting an inner ascending trendline (dotted chocolate colour); an indication of an increased momentum – which may signal an impending pullback before a further bullish move, to possibly target 0.88503, the 2017 high. The technicals are in support of a further bullish move.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on a descent for a while on the weekly time frame. However, in the past two weeks the bulls have taken control with two relatively large bull candlesticks which engulfed 15 previous candlesticks. This represents a strong bullish intent that cannot be ignored. As this move is in an S/R zone, a further bullish move is likely to target the next hindrance around 1.57400. With success, this move may further target the immediate resistance around 1.59620.



On the daily time frame price action has just rejected the descending trendline and has turned upwards with the bulls in total control but the market structure of the initial downtrend has not yet been broken. This may require a pullback to retest the origin of the recent move upwards around 1.5080 before a further move upwards. Failure in this may result in a break of the trendline southwards to target the base around 1.4699, the monthly pivot.



On the H4 timeframe, price action has moved upwards to respect an inner trendline (magenta colour), indicating an increaseed momentum but with a potential for a strong pull back. This may result in a 32.8 50 Fib retracement before a continuation of the northward move; failure may mean a southward crash to a lower level, perhaps the major trendline (navy colour) from the daily time frame around 61.8 76.4 Fib zone or lower.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on a descent on the weekly time frame since September 2015 and respecting a major trendline (chocolate colour).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, the price is respecting an inner descending trendline but the momentum is weak. There is manifest struggle between the bulls and the bears. This is not surprising as the price action is in a strong support zone. There is at least another 90 pips for maneuvering southwards within the zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the H4 time frame, price has been operating in a descending channel since February 2017. It has moved southwards within the channel creating a double inside bar during the last eight hours of Friday last week. If this results in a further bearish move, price is likely to target the channel line and, perhaps, the next significant support around 1.60044, which represents the 2017 low on the pair; and may expose the 1.57890 handle, the 2016 low.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair maintains a bearish disposition on the weekly time frame. After a bullish retracement in January, price action has returned to a bearish mode although the momentum is still weak owing to resistance from the bulls. Nevertheless, the technicals on the weekly time frame still favour the bears.



On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating in a significant zone (bound by sandybrown coloured lines), adjoining the January gap down and may remain so for a while. This gap has never been visited since January and any break of the zone southward may target the low around 1.19914.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Excellent thread - I'm subscribed

awm.

KeenPips,hello!, excellent analysis. You are not going to increase quantities of currency pairs for the analysis? Or to add gold? It is possible to learn what MA you use also the Pivot indicator where it is possible to download?

Thanks bro. I'm encouraged.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Hi Wayf! I analyze pairs on my watch list that have met my screening criteria for the week. I have gold too but it didn't meet my trading conditions for this week.

MAs covering short term (20 EMA), intermediate and long-term (200 EMA) because of the way I track and trade the market. On pivot, any pivot indicator on MT4 will do, just do a search on your MT4 platform.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Hello All.

This is my first analytical post in this thread; I have tried to keep to the recommendations made by KeenPips (post 01); however, if a transgress I apologise and will endeavour to improve in following posts. As will all posts, the following are my views and very much those of a novice Trader. In the past I have used a combination of indicators to try and decipher the markets, the results have often been confusing and contradictory. With that in mind I realise that I should learn to trade with simplicity and now tray to keep my charts as clean as possible using only Price Action, Support & Resistance and the 20-50-200 EMAs. I am still learning. However, involvement is a large part of the learning process so please read my analysis and comment if you wish.

EURUSD Outlook.
Weekly: this pair continues to trade in a wide range established by a low in March 2015. I see three zones, the first being Resistance at 1.14376 level, the second being Support at the 1.05941 level and the third being an area of value at the 1.09229 level. The EMMAs indicate a strong bearish trend although recent Price Action suggests a Bullish retracement off lows at the 1.04297 level (closing price). Price pattern looks [almost] like a symmetrical triangle but strictly speaking fails as there are not enough touches on the [blue] resistance trend line; from a trading view point I would like to see price test this line before making a decision. Trading the long side in this time frame my objective would be a conservative 50-61.8% retrace from 1.05941 whereas a short objective would be a retest of 1.05941.

Daily: Bullish Price Action follows the established [red] support trend line. The two most recent powerful bullish candles, one Engulfing followed by a second bull candle close lower than their highs leaving long tails that suggest the bullish move may be short lived and a possible return to the [red] trend line. However, this bullishness should not be overlooked as price heads towards the triangle apex. Again talking a conservative view I am waiting for a trend line test before an entry decision in this time frame.

H4: Bullish Price Action tests the [blue] trend line resistance and begins to retrace on a bearish Engulfing candle; Price Action is above all EMAs so there question is which is stronger, the trend line or the bullish momentum? Trading on Price Action I have an H4 open Short Position [Entry at 1.06666] with my Take Profit in a 1.06225 zone. As I write price is above my Entry. I will continue this trade in the H4 time frame whilst monitoring in H1.

awm.

Well done Awm. Keep it up. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Quoting KeenPips

Disliked

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair maintains a bearish disposition on the weekly time frame. After a bullish retracement in January, price action has returned to a bearish mode although the momentum is still weak owing to resistance from the bulls. Nevertheless, the technicals on the weekly time frame still favour the bears. {image} On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating in a significant zone (bound by sandybrown coloured lines), adjoining the January gap down and may remain so for a while. This gap has never been visited since...

Ignored

Last week, I had the view that cable would move southwards to retest the gap of January 15, 2017, between 1.2120 and 1.2000. But I was mistaken. Thanks to the favourable fundamentals on cable and the poor greenback showing fundamentally. Nevertheless, overall, I consider the cable move purely unreliable and unsustainable. Yes, the pair has been on an upward stretch; but it seems to be nearing a plateau.

On the daily time frame, the pair is entering an area of consolidation (khaki rectangle). There, it will have to contend with the monthly pivot around 1.24761 and a series of weekly resistance levels nearby.



On the H4 time frame, while it is apparent that the potential for further upward move is there but it may be appealing for scalping purpose only as the main trend is southwards and the 50/61.8 Fib zone is yet to be taken out.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Subscribed! Top down analysis is one of the key ingredients in trading. I'll try to post some analysis soon/sometime this week.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the descent on the weekly time frame since December 2015. It entered a corrective mode in November 2016 and peaked at the 78.6 Fib level in December 2016, respecting a major descending trendline (chocolate colour) which began in October 2015. Price action since November 2016 tends to align with an inner descending trendline (dotted line in chocolate colour). Two weeks ago, a bullish candlestick formed to validate the inner trendline and got pushed back by bearish pressure around a resistance zone. Last week an engulfing-like candlestick formalized the bearish influence and disposed the price action further southwards. Nevertheless, the overall price action is taking place in area of consolidation and so the momentum for further downward movement may be limited.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the daily time frame, price action is on a descent with strong bearish influence. However, as price action is in a consolidation zone (khaki colour) within an S/R area, price may need to retrace upwards to retest the inner descending trendline of the weekly time frame or the immediate resistance zone around 115.850 before a more confident move southwards. It should be realized that the zone has held as support since mid-January 2017. Should price break the zone to the downside, an initial target is likely to be 113.100, a significant round number which aligns with the previous low of March 2016.



On the H4 time frame, price action is largely bearish. However, the momentum is hindered by some consolidating influence of bulls. The most recent price action, with predominant low-wicky candlesticks, indicate a high probability for a move upwards before any further bearish move. A probable area for an upward corrective move is the 32.8/50 Fib zone which adjoins 113.680 – 114.030 and potentially a flip zone, having served as a resistance and support for a while on the H4 time frame.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Analysis

Price has been declining overall since August 2015. A major descending trend line on the weekly time frame has been largely respected by price action. Two main descending price waves have formed since then. However, the second price wave has very little pullback. Possibly a leg up may be required before another descending price wave begins. It should be noted that on the weekly time frame, price has breached the low of 2017; it targeted the low of 2016 but failed. Is that the potential next target for price action, around 1.57890?



On the daily time frame, price action is within a descending channel; a breach of which to the downside is likely to expose the low of 2016 around 1.57890. From the H4 time frame, it is apparent that the bulls are attempting to push price a bit further upwards, perhaps to retest the most recent high (around 1.61362) or the upper channel line. This is likely the case as a hammer candlestick rejected the midline of the channel last week Friday, which was followed up by a further bullish push.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Well come bro! Just keep to the rules; they are given in post #1.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Hello from a learner.
Nice place to come by, such a friendly attitude.
Good luck.
Oddbj.

Hi, m8! We are all learners. You prosper in this business by learning daily, improving your trading edge for consistent profitability in the market. Trade safe and prosper.

KP