DislikedKeenPips, good topic, I signed up. This is a great approach to analyze the top down. And what MA and Pivot indicator you use? If you can link to the indicators. Thank you!Ignored
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on a descending trend since March 2013. Since then it has made three major price waves to the downside. The pair was on a retracement to the upside for much of 2016 and consolidated for a while as it hit the 38.2 Fib level of the swing from the immediate price wave to the downside and respecting the descending trendline in the process. The order flow context on the weekly time frame shows strong bearish influence with price at a significant support zone. A break of the support zone to the downside is likely to expose the next support zone which was the swing low of the previous price wave. Otherwise, there may be a retest of the descending trendline before a further southward move.
The technicals on the 4H time frame support the momentum to the downside but further southward move will have to await a retracement of the swing to the downside that began two weeks ago.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on a descending trend since March 2013. Since then it has made three major price waves to the downside. The pair was on a retracement to the upside for much of 2016 and consolidated for a while as it hit the 38.2 Fib level of the swing from the immediate price wave to the downside and respecting the descending trendline in the process. The order flow context on the weekly time frame shows strong bearish influence with price at a significant support zone. A break of the support zone to the downside is likely to expose the next support zone which was the swing low of the previous price wave. Otherwise, there may be a retest of the descending trendline before a further southward move.
The technicals on the 4H time frame support the momentum to the downside but further southward move will have to await a retracement of the swing to the downside that began two weeks ago.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action on the pair has been in an ascending trend since November 7, 2016. However, the momentum for further bullish drive is slowing down on daily and weekly time frames, particularly with marked influence of the bears last week. The market has hit 78.6% Fib level of the previous, and much longer, descending trend on the weekly time frame. The area is adjoining a significant round number, 118.200, where the price action is also respecting a mini-descending trendline on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, the technicals support a weakened upside momentum and the recent price action still respects the descending trendline (navy colour). Any break of the trend line to the upside is likely to be a surge to test the weekly trendline before a move southwards.
On the 4H time frame, price action has just broken an ascending trendline (magenta colour) and has made some rounding tops formation. This is a probable sign that the momentum for further upward move is threatened.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Price action on the pair has been in an ascending trend since November 7, 2016. However, the momentum for further bullish drive is slowing down on daily and weekly time frames, particularly with marked influence of the bears last week. The market has hit 78.6% Fib level of the previous, and much longer, descending trend on the weekly time frame. The area is adjoining a significant round number, 118.200, where the price action is also respecting a mini-descending trendline on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, the technicals support a weakened upside momentum and the recent price action still respects the descending trendline (navy colour). Any break of the trend line to the upside is likely to be a surge to test the weekly trendline before a move southwards.
On the 4H time frame, price action has just broken an ascending trendline (magenta colour) and has made some rounding tops formation. This is a probable sign that the momentum for further upward move is threatened.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
Effective January 2017, I will be incorporating the viewpoint from the monthly time frame where it is relevant to do so. The monthly time frame gives a huge context for the weekly technical outlook, particularly to get a broader outlook, potential targets and turning points, beneficial to swing and position traders. It may not be necessary to get the monthly viewpoint in all cases but when such a viewpoint is likely to make the analysis more potent or clarify certain aspects of price action which may not be captured effectively on the weekly time...
The pair has been on an ascending trend for a long while. On the monthly time frame, the ascending trend which began in July 2012 culminated in the high of 125.848 in June 2015. This retraced downwards to just below the 50.0 Fib in June 2016. Since then, the ascending push has continued. Price action and technicals on the monthly time frame are in favour of further bullish push.
On the weekly time frame, price action is still respecting the ascending trend. Although there was a bearish push in the last two weeks nothing decisive has changed. The technicals are mixed.
On the daily time frame, the pair has not breached the major trendline (navy colour) and in fact it is respecting an inner trendline to the upside (saddlebrown colour). Presently, price action is operating in a channel (medium blue colour); a flag? It will be a good option to watch price action and see the outcome of its reaction at the channel trendlines.
On the 4H time frame, the pair is on a consolidation mode which is in tune with the observation on the daily time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The primary trend is down but the market mode is for an upside move.
On the weekly time frame, the market is respecting a downward trend; the major trend is still in play and not yet breached (chocolate colour) but the prevailing inner trend (navy colour) is still respected. However, the technicals support a market mode to the upside. This may mean a corrective move before continuation of the main down trend.
On the 4H time frame, price has tested the 61.8% Fib and moved down to between the 50 and 38. 2 Fib levels. The most recent price action formed a bullish piercing candle whose high touched the 50 Fib level. If either the 61.8 or 50 Fib level holds, this may signal a continuation of the bearish trend. However, a likely breach to the upside may target the 78.6 Fib which is very close to the most recent swing high but may not break the market structure for a down trend.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The primary trend is down but the market mode is for an upside move.
On the weekly time frame, the market is respecting a downward trend; the major trend is still in play and not yet breached (chocolate colour) but the prevailing inner trend (navy colour) is still respected. However, the technicals support a market mode to the upside. This may mean a corrective move before continuation of the main down trend.
On the 4H time frame, price has tested the 61.8% Fib and moved down to between the 50 and 38. 2 Fib levels. The most recent price action formed a bullish piercing candle whose high touched the 50 Fib level. If either the 61.8 or 50 Fib level holds, this may signal a continuation of the bearish trend. However, a likely breach to the upside may target the 78.6 Fib which is very close to the most recent swing high but may not break the market structure for a down trend.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
Ranging but in a bearish market mode:
This pair has been on a move to the upside for over four years. However, the pair may reverse southwards because on the monthly time frame the current up trend resulted from a retracement of a swing to the upside which spiked the 78.6% Fib of a major descending trend started in August 2002.
On the weekly time frame, the pair is still respecting an ascending trend began in July 2012. A major bullish drive in May 2014 culminated in a swing high in January 2016 and retraced to about 50% Fib in May 2016 to respect the prevailing trendline. Presently price action is within an ascending channel. But the market mode is bearish, indicated in a bearish candle formed last week.
On the daily time frame, the pair is clearly operating in an ascending channel but the market mode favours a downward move as the bears wrestled control of the market in the last few days of the past week and the bearish mode is supported by the technicals. The immediate target seems to be the weekly support zone around 1.33466. But a break of the channel to the downside is likely to expose the last swing low around 1.30768 and may serve as a continuation of a downward trend. However, should the lower channel line hold and thus respect the ascending trend on the weekly time frame, further bullish surge may target the immediate weekly resistance or the nearest swing high around 1.38215.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Ranging but in a bearish market mode:
This pair has been on a move to the upside for over four years. However, the pair may reverse southwards because on the monthly time frame the current up trend resulted from a retracement of a swing to the upside which spiked the 78.6% Fib of a major descending trend started in August 2002.
On the weekly time frame, the pair is still respecting an ascending trend began in July 2012. A major bullish drive in May 2014 culminated in a swing high in January 2016 and retraced to about 50% Fib in May 2016 to respect the prevailing trendline. Presently price action is within an ascending channel. But the market mode is bearish, indicated in a bearish candle formed last week.
On the daily time frame, the pair is clearly operating in an ascending channel but the market mode favours a downward move as the bears wrestled control of the market in the last few days of the past week and the bearish mode is supported by the technicals. The immediate target seems to be the weekly support zone around 1.33466. But a break of the channel to the downside is likely to expose the last swing low around 1.30768 and may serve as a continuation of a downward trend. However, should the lower channel line hold and thus respect the ascending trend on the weekly time frame, further bullish surge may target the immediate weekly resistance or the nearest swing high around 1.38215.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The trend has been up for a while but it seems the momentum has slowed down. Recent price action has rejected a descending trendline on the weekly time frame (saddle brown colour) and the 78.6% Fib level. Therefore, it is important to watch how price reacts to this area.
On the 4H time frame, the pair has been in a consolidation mode (khaki-colour rectangle) since the middle of December 2016 but the bulls are currently influential. Should there be a breakout to the upside, an initial target may be the weekly resistance zone around 121.100 while a breakout to the downside may target the 50 Fib level and expose the immediate weekly support around 111.190.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The trend has been up for a while but it seems the momentum has slowed down. Recent price action has rejected a descending trendline on the weekly time frame (saddle brown colour) and the 78.6% Fib level. Therefore, it is important to watch how price reacts to this area.
On the 4H time frame, the pair has been in a consolidation mode (khaki-colour rectangle) since the middle of December 2016 but the bulls are currently influential. Should there be a breakout to the upside, an initial target may be the weekly resistance zone around 121.100 while a breakout to the downside may target the 50 Fib level and expose the immediate weekly support around 111.190.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Cable is largely on a downward move. The technicals on all HTFs are in sync for a downward operation. A likely target is 1.20180, the most recent swing low of October 2016 on the weekly time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Cable is largely on a downward move. The technicals on all HTFs are in sync for a downward operation. A likely target is 1.20180, the most recent swing low of October 2016 on the weekly time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on the downside for a long while. On the monthly time frame, a descending trend which commenced in December 2015 has remained firmly in place. And the technicals are in support of further southward move.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour) after a period of consolidation with the bears back in control, indicating the possibility of further southward move.
The same observation can be derived from the 4H time frame where the price action is operating in a descending channel (magenta colour) while respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour). With the techicals in support, there is more potential for further southward move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has been on the downside for a long while. On the monthly time frame, a descending trend which commenced in December 2015 has remained firmly in place. And the technicals are in support of further southward move.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour) after a period of consolidation with the bears back in control, indicating the possibility of further southward move.
The same observation can be derived from the 4H time frame where the price action is operating in a descending channel (magenta colour) while respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour). With the techicals in support, there is more potential for further southward move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The market is primarily on a down trend. A look at the monthly time frame shows that the downward trend started in July 1998 and has been maintained overtime after a series of 61.8% to 78.6% Fib retracements. The prevailing down trend is just beyond the 61.8 % Fib retracement of the downtrend began in 1998.
On the weekly time frame, the most recent primary market trend is down but the price action was on a retracement to the upside. Price action reached the 78.6 % Fib level and was turning downwards again. The order flow on the weekly time frame indicates that the bears became influential last week, abut the struggle has not been won as the weekly candle stick formed last week showed that the bulls mitigated the strong bearish move after three weeks of indecision. However, the overall price action respected the descending trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour).
On the 4H time frame, price action has been in consolidation mode within a horizontal channel (khaki colour). It has broken the channel to the downside but a retest of the channel line would be needed for confidence in further bearish move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The market is primarily on a down trend. A look at the monthly time frame shows that the downward trend started in July 1998 and has been maintained overtime after a series of 61.8% to 78.6% Fib retracements. The prevailing down trend is just beyond the 61.8 % Fib retracement of the downtrend began in 1998.
On the weekly time frame, the most recent primary market trend is down but the price action was on a retracement to the upside. Price action reached the 78.6 % Fib level and was turning downwards again. The order flow on the weekly time frame indicates that the bears became influential last week, abut the struggle has not been won as the weekly candle stick formed last week showed that the bulls mitigated the strong bearish move after three weeks of indecision. However, the overall price action respected the descending trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour).
On the 4H time frame, price action has been in consolidation mode within a horizontal channel (khaki colour). It has broken the channel to the downside but a retest of the channel line would be needed for confidence in further bearish move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
The potential is for further southward move. On the weekly time frame, the price action is still respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour). And the order flow has been dominated by sellers. After a corrective move a few weeks ago, price action resulted in a sideways mode for four weeks before the southward move continued two weeks ago. A strong bearish candle was formed last week and the technicals on the weekly time are in support of a bearish mode.
On the 4H time frame, price action is disposted southwards. Since January 2017, two price waves southwards have been completed with accompanying corrective moves. The most recent corrective move resulted in a triangle formation (saddlebrown colour). Much likely a break of the triangle to the downside will target the next significant support zone, which is around 1.60344.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The potential is for further southward move. On the weekly time frame, the price action is still respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour). And the order flow has been dominated by sellers. After a corrective move a few weeks ago, price action resulted in a sideways mode for four weeks before the southward move continued two weeks ago. A strong bearish candle was formed last week and the technicals on the weekly time are in support of a bearish mode.
On the 4H time frame, price action is disposted southwards. Since January 2017, two price waves southwards have been completed with accompanying corrective moves. The most recent corrective move resulted in a triangle formation (saddlebrown colour). Much likely a break of the triangle to the downside will target the next significant support zone, which is around 1.60344.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has maintained a southward move for a long while. On the monthly time frame, the order flow is largely under the control of sellers. In the past 3 months the pair has been in sideways mode and the descending trendline is still vey much respected.
On the weekly time frame, the descending trendline is still being respected although a bullish engulfing candlestick was formed last week. Apparently the pair was on a retracement. Price action hit the 38.2 Fib retracement of the immediate swing low and an inner descending trendline (navy colour) is being respected. We may expect price action to retrace further upwards to target the inner trendline. A possible bearish target is the channel line (lower tendline) of the emerging channel (navy colour) and within a significant support zone between 1.54215 and 1.51193.
On the 4H time frame, price action has broken through an inner descending trendline (magenta colour), moving towards the 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing low. A possible target is the outer trendline (navy colour) from the weekly time frame. Currently price action seems poised for futher upward move with the most recent order flow in favour of buyers.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has maintained a southward move for a long while. On the monthly time frame, the order flow is largely under the control of sellers. In the past 3 months the pair has been in sideways mode and the descending trendline is still vey much respected.
On the weekly time frame, the descending trendline is still being respected although a bullish engulfing candlestick was formed last week. Apparently the pair was on a retracement. Price action hit the 38.2 Fib retracement of the immediate swing low and an inner descending trendline (navy colour) is being respected. We may expect price action to retrace further upwards to target the inner trendline. A possible bearish target is the channel line (lower tendline) of the emerging channel (navy colour) and within a significant support zone between 1.54215 and 1.51193.
On the 4H time frame, price action has broken through an inner descending trendline (magenta colour), moving towards the 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing low. A possible target is the outer trendline (navy colour) from the weekly time frame. Currently price action seems poised for futher upward move with the most recent order flow in favour of buyers.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
After hitting the 78.6 Fib retracement of the most recent swing low on the weekly time frame in December 2016, the pair consolidated for a while before pursuing a southwards operation in a descending channel. This is clearly seen on the 4H time frame.
Last week, price retraced to 50 Fib of the most recent swing low on the 4H time frame and respected the descending trendline (magenta colour). The current market mode is ambivalent as the buyers are still influential even though the trend seems to favour the sellers. It should be noted that the price action is at a significant S/R zone and a rejection of the zone to the downside to respect the descending channel (navy colour) is likely. There is the possibility that price action will pursue a southwards drive thereafter as a significant moving average has been acting as a dynamic resistance for the past two weeks.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
After hitting the 78.6 Fib retracement of the most recent swing low on the weekly time frame in December 2016, the pair consolidated for a while before pursuing a southwards operation in a descending channel. This is clearly seen on the 4H time frame.
Last week, price retraced to 50 Fib of the most recent swing low on the 4H time frame and respected the descending trendline (magenta colour). The current market mode is ambivalent as the buyers are still influential even though the trend seems to favour the sellers. It should be noted that the price action is at a significant S/R zone and a rejection of the zone to the downside to respect the descending channel (navy colour) is likely. There is the possibility that price action will pursue a southwards drive thereafter as a significant moving average has been acting as a dynamic resistance for the past two weeks.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,132 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money