Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
First; thanks to KP for the Video - any more like that?
Following on from my post on the 13th: the EURUSD has seen some strong bullish movement, the 20/50 EMAs are now crossed. I took a long position Sunday evening with very good results over night but closed out Monday morning feeling that D1 resistance was too strong. Perhaps I should regret that decision..? However, I am excited about the D1 chart as it is now testing a very strong resistance area, the bearish trend line (blue dotted line) and the 200EMA. I believe a break through these levels would be meaningful. Despite a good trade Sunday/Monday I am more interested in the long term and will stand aside awaiting the result of test outlined above.
The H4 chart tells much the same story, price has risen from a congestion zone (grey rectangle) on strong bullish candles so a retrace may be expected. Again, I think it wise to stand aside to see price draw back to the 20/50 EMAs and then reassess the chart.
Please note: I have not taken fundamentals into account.
awm
Following on from my post on the 13th: the EURUSD has seen some strong bullish movement, the 20/50 EMAs are now crossed. I took a long position Sunday evening with very good results over night but closed out Monday morning feeling that D1 resistance was too strong. Perhaps I should regret that decision..? However, I am excited about the D1 chart as it is now testing a very strong resistance area, the bearish trend line (blue dotted line) and the 200EMA. I believe a break through these levels would be meaningful. Despite a good trade Sunday/Monday I am more interested in the long term and will stand aside awaiting the result of test outlined above.
The H4 chart tells much the same story, price has risen from a congestion zone (grey rectangle) on strong bullish candles so a retrace may be expected. Again, I think it wise to stand aside to see price draw back to the 20/50 EMAs and then reassess the chart.
Please note: I have not taken fundamentals into account.
awm
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been consolidating for much of the past seven weeks. However, the downward trend that started in March 2013 is not yet broken. Recent price action on the weekly time frame is around a weekly S/R zone. Last week a piercing-like bearish candlestick formed on the weekly time frame but the previous weeks candlestick was a relatively larger bullish candlestick. Momentum for further bearish move is likely to result from a break below the counter trend line (magenta colour) on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, recent price action has been under the influence of bears. With a break of price action below important zones, e.g. the immediate resistance zone and the monthly pivot, the next hindrance southwards is the counter tend line and the daily support zone, between 0.75516 and 0.75508.
On the H4 time frame, price action has made one wave southwards and is now operating around a resistance zone following a pullback. Although there is much likelihood for further retracement, the technicals favour a southwards move thereafter, particularly if price breaks below the counter tend line (navy colour). This is likely to target and expose the next significant support zone around 0.74663.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has been consolidating for much of the past seven weeks. However, the downward trend that started in March 2013 is not yet broken. Recent price action on the weekly time frame is around a weekly S/R zone. Last week a piercing-like bearish candlestick formed on the weekly time frame but the previous weeks candlestick was a relatively larger bullish candlestick. Momentum for further bearish move is likely to result from a break below the counter trend line (magenta colour) on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, recent price action has been under the influence of bears. With a break of price action below important zones, e.g. the immediate resistance zone and the monthly pivot, the next hindrance southwards is the counter tend line and the daily support zone, between 0.75516 and 0.75508.
On the H4 time frame, price action has made one wave southwards and is now operating around a resistance zone following a pullback. Although there is much likelihood for further retracement, the technicals favour a southwards move thereafter, particularly if price breaks below the counter tend line (navy colour). This is likely to target and expose the next significant support zone around 0.74663.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
This pair continued its bearish disposition. On the weekly time frame, in December 2016, the pair saw a 76.4 Fib retracement of the downward trend began in August 2015. Price action has moved below the outer trend line to respect an inner trendline. Recent price action has remained within the 61.8/50.0 Fib zone, moved below the monthly pivot and validated a counter trendline (magenta colour). The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further bearish move.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is largely under the control of bears. However, there was a bullish influence last Friday which may indicate a likely pullback before further southward move. This is particularly so as the price action in the latter part of last week was in a support zone which has held since November 2016.
The likelihood of a further pullback can be seen on the H4 time frame where much of the price action has been in consolidation but the bullish engulfing candlestick formed in the last session on Friday dominated two previous candlesticks; a possible target of any such retracement is around the 50 Fib zone, between 111.644 and 112.234.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
This pair continued its bearish disposition. On the weekly time frame, in December 2016, the pair saw a 76.4 Fib retracement of the downward trend began in August 2015. Price action has moved below the outer trend line to respect an inner trendline. Recent price action has remained within the 61.8/50.0 Fib zone, moved below the monthly pivot and validated a counter trendline (magenta colour). The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further bearish move.
On the daily time frame, recent price action is largely under the control of bears. However, there was a bullish influence last Friday which may indicate a likely pullback before further southward move. This is particularly so as the price action in the latter part of last week was in a support zone which has held since November 2016.
The likelihood of a further pullback can be seen on the H4 time frame where much of the price action has been in consolidation but the bullish engulfing candlestick formed in the last session on Friday dominated two previous candlesticks; a possible target of any such retracement is around the 50 Fib zone, between 111.644 and 112.234.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
First; thanks to KP for the Video - any more like that? Following on from my post on the 13th: the EURUSD has seen some strong bullish movement, the 20/50 EMAs are now crossed. I took a long position Sunday evening with very good results over night but closed out Monday morning feeling that D1 resistance was too strong. ... However, I am excited about the D1 chart as it is now testing a very strong resistance area, the bearish trend line (blue dotted line) and the 200EMA. I believe a break through these levels would be meaningful. Despite a good...
Well done m8! Keep it up. Green pips to you.KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
The EURUSD has pushed through both its Bearish Trend line and 200 EMA with an opening gap. Although I remain cautious at this daily price level due to the strong resistance at the top of the blue band [see post 142 earlier] I have an open trade at 1.42756 and due to the strong correlation with the EURSUD I have opened a trade in this pair at 1.26082. Let's see what tomorrow brings... awm
Yes, caution is the word atm re-EURUSD. There are two key hindrance zones -resistances - which price will have to clear before any further bullish momentum. See attached; the two resistance zones are indicated by magenta coloured horizontal lines and sandybrown coloured lines.
Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
Another interesting technical point is that current price action is between the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the November 2016 high. KP {quote}
See attached.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
Another interesting technical point is that current price action is between the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the November 2016 high. KP {quote}
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
{quote} Hi KP; yes I saw the price action in those areas and having bagged 22 pips from the two trades decided to close and live to trade another day with some profit having gone into in my account.
Wise to take the profit and track price action for another very good trading opportunity rather than just jumping into trades.Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook This pair continued its bearish disposition. On the weekly time frame, in December 2016, the pair saw a 76.4 Fib retracement of the downward trend began in August 2015. Price action has moved below the outer trend line to respect an inner trendline. Recent price action has remained within the 61.8/50.0 Fib zone, moved below the monthly pivot and validated a counter trendline (magenta colour). The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further bearish move. {image} On the daily time frame, recent price action is...
Here's an update on USDJPY. You may expect it to move further northwards before driving southwards. A likely retracement target is the 38.2/50 Fib zone, proximal to the immediate resistance zone on the H4 time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
Technical Update on USDJPY
If you are tracking USDJPY, mind the immediate resistance zone on the H4 tf; it corresponds to the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the March 2017 high. A potential for a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
If you are tracking USDJPY, mind the immediate resistance zone on the H4 tf; it corresponds to the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the March 2017 high. A potential for a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on the upside move since November 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging in the 32.8/23.6 Fib zone since December 2016. However, it has been a heavy 415 pip-range (saddlebrown horizontal lines) and offered good trading opportunities for scalping and short-term swing trading. The last three weeks have seen further bearish push particularly with the last weekly candlestick which was strongly bearish and attacked the immediate support zone but failed to breach the ascending trendline from the low of November 2015. Should price break the ascending trendline southwards, it will have to contend with the next weekly support zone which is about 65 pips away and still within the original range.
On the daily time frame, the ascending trendline from November 2015 is still very much intact. Together with the descending trendline from the high of 2016, an ascending triangle has formed by recent price action; a situation that portends further southwards move. This is favoured by the strong bear candlesticks that formed in the last three days of last week. However, it would take another bearish daily candlestick that close strongly below the ascending trendline (navy colour) to justify a southward trade, although the technicals on the daily time frame favour further southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action has rejected southwards the descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of October 2016 and both the order flow context and the technicals are in support of momentum to the south.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has been on the upside move since November 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging in the 32.8/23.6 Fib zone since December 2016. However, it has been a heavy 415 pip-range (saddlebrown horizontal lines) and offered good trading opportunities for scalping and short-term swing trading. The last three weeks have seen further bearish push particularly with the last weekly candlestick which was strongly bearish and attacked the immediate support zone but failed to breach the ascending trendline from the low of November 2015. Should price break the ascending trendline southwards, it will have to contend with the next weekly support zone which is about 65 pips away and still within the original range.
On the daily time frame, the ascending trendline from November 2015 is still very much intact. Together with the descending trendline from the high of 2016, an ascending triangle has formed by recent price action; a situation that portends further southwards move. This is favoured by the strong bear candlesticks that formed in the last three days of last week. However, it would take another bearish daily candlestick that close strongly below the ascending trendline (navy colour) to justify a southward trade, although the technicals on the daily time frame favour further southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action has rejected southwards the descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of October 2016 and both the order flow context and the technicals are in support of momentum to the south.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has maintained a southward disposition for a very long time. On the weekly time frame, price action respected an outer descending trendline (chocolate) from the high of August 1998. It was later rejected southwards to respect an inner descending trendine (navy colour) from the high of 2002. After a retracement just above the 61.8 Fib zone of that trend in December 2016 and January 2017, price action is bearing south but an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of September 2012 is holding as support. Recent price action is within a weekly support zone and the technicals on the weekly time frame are mixed, suggesting a further period of consolidation even though the overall outlook is southwards. A close below the immediate support on the weekly time frame is likely to expose the 107.320 handle, which adjoins the 50 Fib zone. As the most recent price action suggests a further bullish move or consolidation, price may move upwards to retest a minor descending trendline (magenta colour) before turning southwards.
On the H4 time frame, price action is within an S/R zone but the bears have been dominant. Any push by the bulls may be merely corrective, perhaps to retest the 61.8 Fib zone or the immediate resistance zone on the H4 around 112.440, which intersects the descending trendline on the H4 time frame (saddlebrown colour); a rejection of which is likely to provide impetus for further southwards drive. The technical mode on the H4 time frame currently supports a corrective move upwards but the momentum is likely to wane as the main outlook is for further southward move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has maintained a southward disposition for a very long time. On the weekly time frame, price action respected an outer descending trendline (chocolate) from the high of August 1998. It was later rejected southwards to respect an inner descending trendine (navy colour) from the high of 2002. After a retracement just above the 61.8 Fib zone of that trend in December 2016 and January 2017, price action is bearing south but an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of September 2012 is holding as support. Recent price action is within a weekly support zone and the technicals on the weekly time frame are mixed, suggesting a further period of consolidation even though the overall outlook is southwards. A close below the immediate support on the weekly time frame is likely to expose the 107.320 handle, which adjoins the 50 Fib zone. As the most recent price action suggests a further bullish move or consolidation, price may move upwards to retest a minor descending trendline (magenta colour) before turning southwards.
On the H4 time frame, price action is within an S/R zone but the bears have been dominant. Any push by the bulls may be merely corrective, perhaps to retest the 61.8 Fib zone or the immediate resistance zone on the H4 around 112.440, which intersects the descending trendline on the H4 time frame (saddlebrown colour); a rejection of which is likely to provide impetus for further southwards drive. The technical mode on the H4 time frame currently supports a corrective move upwards but the momentum is likely to wane as the main outlook is for further southward move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
GOLD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been in decline since the high of 2010. On the weekly time frame, price action in 2016 peaked to just 32.8 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of 2010. The outer and inner trendlines (chocolate colour) from the peak of 2010 have formed a descending channel within which recent price action is operating. .An ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of June 2016 has held as support since August 2015. Furthermore, price action since November 2016 has moved into the descending channel created in November 2014 (navy coloured lines). Thus in the circumstance, with most recent price action under the control of the bulls it is safe to expect a a further push northwards to perhaps target the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame around 1322 or retest the 38.2 Fib zone before impetus for a strong southward drive. However, there are a series of barriers to overcome northwards and thus the momentum may be limited. It will be safe to step aside for clarity of price action because should the barriers prove strong, we may see a ranging market before a southward push can materialize.
On the daily timeframe, price action is operating within a descending channel and is retesting the upper channel line. Should the channel be breached upwards, the initial target is likely to be the immediate resistance zone identified on the weekly time frame around 1322. Otherwise, a bounce off the channel line is likely to see price target the immediate support around 1190.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has been in decline since the high of 2010. On the weekly time frame, price action in 2016 peaked to just 32.8 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of 2010. The outer and inner trendlines (chocolate colour) from the peak of 2010 have formed a descending channel within which recent price action is operating. .An ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of June 2016 has held as support since August 2015. Furthermore, price action since November 2016 has moved into the descending channel created in November 2014 (navy coloured lines). Thus in the circumstance, with most recent price action under the control of the bulls it is safe to expect a a further push northwards to perhaps target the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame around 1322 or retest the 38.2 Fib zone before impetus for a strong southward drive. However, there are a series of barriers to overcome northwards and thus the momentum may be limited. It will be safe to step aside for clarity of price action because should the barriers prove strong, we may see a ranging market before a southward push can materialize.
On the daily timeframe, price action is operating within a descending channel and is retesting the upper channel line. Should the channel be breached upwards, the initial target is likely to be the immediate resistance zone identified on the weekly time frame around 1322. Otherwise, a bounce off the channel line is likely to see price target the immediate support around 1190.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair is generally on a downward mood. Since mid-December 2016, price action on the weekly time frame has been operating within a descending channel formed by the outer and inner descending trendlines from the high of 2014. Price action in February and early March 2017 retraced upwards to the range formed between mid December 2016 and January 2017 before moving further southwards three weeks ago. Price has reached a significant support area and an inner ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of 2016 is a likely hindrance for further southwards move. Should price break the inner trendline southwards, the outer ascending trendline (magenta colour) will need be overcome, perhaps around 116.271, before momentum for a southward drive can be expected. Thus the overall outlook shows a period of sideways, ranging or consolidating price action before a further southward drive.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame is controlled by the bears. Key trendlines, ascending (navy colour) from the low of October 2016 and descending (navy colour) from the high of March 2017 have been rejected to the south. As current price action is within a support zone on the H4 time frame, a break below 118.00 will give a strong indication for further southward drive. Should price retrace upwards, the target may be a retest of the immediate resistance zone on the H4 time frame, which adjoins the monthly pivot around 120.00.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair is generally on a downward mood. Since mid-December 2016, price action on the weekly time frame has been operating within a descending channel formed by the outer and inner descending trendlines from the high of 2014. Price action in February and early March 2017 retraced upwards to the range formed between mid December 2016 and January 2017 before moving further southwards three weeks ago. Price has reached a significant support area and an inner ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of 2016 is a likely hindrance for further southwards move. Should price break the inner trendline southwards, the outer ascending trendline (magenta colour) will need be overcome, perhaps around 116.271, before momentum for a southward drive can be expected. Thus the overall outlook shows a period of sideways, ranging or consolidating price action before a further southward drive.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame is controlled by the bears. Key trendlines, ascending (navy colour) from the low of October 2016 and descending (navy colour) from the high of March 2017 have been rejected to the south. As current price action is within a support zone on the H4 time frame, a break below 118.00 will give a strong indication for further southward drive. Should price retrace upwards, the target may be a retest of the immediate resistance zone on the H4 time frame, which adjoins the monthly pivot around 120.00.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
GOLD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has been in decline since the high of 2010. On the weekly time frame, price action in 2016 peaked to just 32.8 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of 2010. The outer and inner trendlines (chocolate colour) from the peak of 2010 have formed a descending channel within which recent price action is operating. .An ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of June 2016 has held as support since August 2015. Furthermore, price action since November 2016 has moved into the descending channel created...
If you are tracking XAUUSD, patience can be golden. You may benefit from the over 800 pip-range it has created, see the weekly chart attached, but you need to navigate the descending channel of the price action on the H4 time frame first. You would see that even that is a part of the overall descending channel on the weekly time frame if you look closely at the attached weekly chart.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been predominantly on the decline since 2012. On the weekly time frame for much of 2015 and 2016, the pair operated in a consolidating mode spanning a range of over 580 pips from 0.71712 to 0.77645. However, price action since 2017 has remained on the upper half of a horizontal channel (bound by bold saddlebrown coloured lines). Three descending trendlines (chocolate colour) from the high of 2013 constrained the consolidating price action in 2017 and the desending trend is basicaly intact. This was emphasized by the three weekly candlestics of the past three weeks which rejected the descending trendline southwards and breached the low of the bullish candlestic formed four weeks ago. The current price action is within a weekly support zone, but price action has to break the next innner descending trendline to give further impetus to a southward momentum. Another inner trendline is below this and the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 is likely to be another barrier to a southward drive. Essentially there is likely to be much difficulty for price action to break down the barriers southwards.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken the triangle pattern formed by a descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 2017 and an ascending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the low of March 2017 and is now respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in southward momentum. Two bearish price waves had been created since the price action moved into the inner trendline – the first was accompanied by a full pullback, but the second is still in play and may likely experience a pullback before further southward push.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair has been predominantly on the decline since 2012. On the weekly time frame for much of 2015 and 2016, the pair operated in a consolidating mode spanning a range of over 580 pips from 0.71712 to 0.77645. However, price action since 2017 has remained on the upper half of a horizontal channel (bound by bold saddlebrown coloured lines). Three descending trendlines (chocolate colour) from the high of 2013 constrained the consolidating price action in 2017 and the desending trend is basicaly intact. This was emphasized by the three weekly candlestics of the past three weeks which rejected the descending trendline southwards and breached the low of the bullish candlestic formed four weeks ago. The current price action is within a weekly support zone, but price action has to break the next innner descending trendline to give further impetus to a southward momentum. Another inner trendline is below this and the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 is likely to be another barrier to a southward drive. Essentially there is likely to be much difficulty for price action to break down the barriers southwards.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken the triangle pattern formed by a descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 2017 and an ascending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the low of March 2017 and is now respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in southward momentum. Two bearish price waves had been created since the price action moved into the inner trendline – the first was accompanied by a full pullback, but the second is still in play and may likely experience a pullback before further southward push.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 8,140 Posts
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair is generally on a downward mood. Since mid-December 2016, price action on the weekly time frame has been operating within a descending channel formed by the outer and inner descending trendlines from the high of 2014. Price action in February and early March 2017 retraced upwards to the range formed between mid December 2016 and January 2017 before moving further southwards four weeks ago. Last week, the weekly candlestick tested and nestled on the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2016, and at an intersection of a weekly support zone, but could not breach it. A breach of the trendline is likely to target and be limited by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2012. Should price action bounce off that zone, it would have to contend with an inner descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 with the monthly pivot around 120.00 serving as another likely hindrance. A break above this is likely to be held by the immediate resistance zone around 122.00, which intersects the inner descending trendline. The technicals on the weekly time frame are disposed for further southward drive.
On the H4 time frame, an outer descending trendline (bold saddlebraown colour) from the high of March 13, 2017 is still very much in play while price action has moved lower, indicating an increase in momentum, to respect an inner descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 17, 2017. The order flow context and the nature of price action last week showed that the market was in consolidation but the bulls were largely more influential. It is much likely that there wil be a retracement northwards before any further southward move is in play. A likely target of such a retracement is the intersection of the inner descending trendline and the immediate resistance zone, which is around 118.656 and 119.023 and which adjoins the 38.2 Fib zone from the high of March 17, 2017.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
The pair is generally on a downward mood. Since mid-December 2016, price action on the weekly time frame has been operating within a descending channel formed by the outer and inner descending trendlines from the high of 2014. Price action in February and early March 2017 retraced upwards to the range formed between mid December 2016 and January 2017 before moving further southwards four weeks ago. Last week, the weekly candlestick tested and nestled on the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2016, and at an intersection of a weekly support zone, but could not breach it. A breach of the trendline is likely to target and be limited by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2012. Should price action bounce off that zone, it would have to contend with an inner descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 with the monthly pivot around 120.00 serving as another likely hindrance. A break above this is likely to be held by the immediate resistance zone around 122.00, which intersects the inner descending trendline. The technicals on the weekly time frame are disposed for further southward drive.
On the H4 time frame, an outer descending trendline (bold saddlebraown colour) from the high of March 13, 2017 is still very much in play while price action has moved lower, indicating an increase in momentum, to respect an inner descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 17, 2017. The order flow context and the nature of price action last week showed that the market was in consolidation but the bulls were largely more influential. It is much likely that there wil be a retracement northwards before any further southward move is in play. A likely target of such a retracement is the intersection of the inner descending trendline and the immediate resistance zone, which is around 118.656 and 119.023 and which adjoins the 38.2 Fib zone from the high of March 17, 2017.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money