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  • #909,981
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:21pm Jul 11, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Your logic sometimes escapes me Tom, if all these people are selling A) Why price is not falling?! B) Who's gonna start buying to fill your orders?!
you have a nice reasoning here.

Futures are a tiny part of the Forex world. We cannot predict price from futures COT report.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,982
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:22pm Jul 11, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting meleeam
{quote} LOOOOOOL HAHAHA yes between 3600 and 3605 would make extremely skeptical, but if its 3607 then yes I become bullish on this currency.
its not your fault. its the interbreeding.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,983
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:23pm Jul 11, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Your logic sometimes escapes me Tom, if all these people are selling A) Why price is not falling?! B) Who's gonna start buying to fill your orders?!
The main thing people are missing is futures, show me one moment in history when main buying trend was sold in Chicago by speculative side and vice versa, I am not an expert on the fundie side, I lack education - but I called two major turns in euro since I joined this site and called third one few weeks ago - all with cot.
Why do you think euro should go up with nirp?
swing it!
  • #909,984
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:24pm Jul 11, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} no its not like that. i just look for bounces to short. i took a few longs when it seemed right. we are above 3547.. these things take time to get past. no comfort for me until we close -3494 and the last bull headfake to 3589
That is what I feel, on short time frame (days up to couple weeks), it is bullish. On large time frame it is bearish.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,985
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:27pm Jul 11, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} The main thing people are missing is futures, show me one moment in history when main buying trend was sold in Chicago by speculative side and vice versa, I am not an expert on the fundie side, I lack education - but I called two major turns in euro since I joined this site and called third one few weeks ago - all with cot. Why do you think euro should go up with nirp?
I paid some attention to COT data and find that the data are reactive, not predictive. That is the large speculators react to the price movement, and quite often their reaction lags some time to the price movement.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,986
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:27pm Jul 11, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you have a nice reasoning here. Futures are a tiny part of the Forex world. We cannot predict price from futures COT report.
My eurodollar thread few first pages, then feb 2013 here, thank you, God bless
swing it!
  • #909,987
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:29pm Jul 11, 2014 3:29pm
You cannot predict price like with fibs or pivots but swing against futures and you'll be toasted buddy
swing it!
  • #909,988
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:30pm Jul 11, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} The main thing people are missing is futures, show me one moment in history when main buying trend was sold in Chicago by speculative side and vice versa, I am not an expert on the fundie side, I lack education - but I called two major turns in euro since I joined this site and called third one few weeks ago - all with cot. Why do you think euro should go up with nirp?
Well, i could give u the answer of a Canadian Central Banker, CAD exchange rate wouldn't be determined by a group of gamblers ... fair enough?!

* U still hasn't answer my question, if COT are selling and bearish sentiment are super strong: Why price is not falling?! ( We are in a bears trend, are we not?!) Even your previous argument, who would see after 500 pips drop is not working now with all these selling bars are low as 1.367)
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #909,989
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:30pm Jul 11, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} That is what I feel, on short time frame (days up to couple weeks), it is bullish. On large time frame it is bearish.
yeah.. i am getting to the point of setting a large target and just letting it run with just a little early management. on their own merit, and leave them s/o or tp
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,990
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:31pm Jul 11, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting tomspin
You cannot predict price like with fibs or pivots but swing against futures and you'll be toasted buddy
If you check the COT data for all other currencies including euro, you will find that at most of the major swing extremes, the large speculators react to the extremes and lags some time.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,991
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:34pm Jul 11, 2014 3:34pm
C Bankers are gamblers. All bankers are. the have spreads and odds. of course they have different names like prime + 1.. or credit reports or balance sheets...ect. to decide.. its still a gamble
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,992
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:34pm Jul 11, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} If you check the COT data for all other currencies including euro, you will find that at most of the major swing extremes, the large speculators react to the extremes and lags some time.
Of course, like one from may, that is why you have tech levels to enter, that's when fibs and pivots come into play and you can ride for longer, of course not everything is perfect, cannot be this is the market after all, check USD/RUB and last 4 reports, look at the charts see the potential.
Will it happened? no idea
swing it!
  • #909,993
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:34pm Jul 11, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting pedro319
USDCAD We might have a long scalp opportunity coming as price reached 61.8 Weekly Retracement and is currently sitting at Weekly support 1, all we need now is a candlestick pattern on the 1 hour. When this move is finished we can join the downside for more. You can target 1.0729 as probable resistance or 1.0757 Monthly pivot (Untested) + 50% Resistance. I will get more details later.
USDCAD
First target reached. The speed of the move could indicate that there is more to come, if you look into the weekly chart you will see that we are bouncing or reversing from 61.8 Ret and there is positive divergence on Weekly chart as well. Next week should find good spot to add longs depending on reaction to 50% Resistance Daily chart if we get there as I expect .
I will update on this one in due time.
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #909,994
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:36pm Jul 11, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
C Bankers are gamblers. All bankers are. the have spreads and odds. of course they have different names like prime + 1.. or credit reports to decide.. its still a gamble
Vachus meant the officials of Canadian Central Bank.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,995
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:39pm Jul 11, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Vachus meant the officials of Canadian Central Bank.
yeah, one gambler (CC banker) calling others gambers
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #909,996
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:40pm Jul 11, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} Well, i could give u the answer of a Canadian Central Banker, CAD exchange rate wouldn't be determined by a group of gamblers ... fair enough?! * U still hasn't answer my question, if COT are selling and bearish sentiment are super strong: Why price is not falling?! ( We are in a bears trend, are we not?!) Even your previous argument, who would see after 500 pips drop is not working now with all these selling bars are low as 1.367)
I did it many times over, cot is sentiment between gamblers and people who cost average their business, it's pure logic w/o 2 grand bloomberg terminal,spot main swing and compare it with COT then watch what both sides are doing. If you are late price will come back anyway.

Quoting tomspin
{quote} I'll try to explain how I arrived at this so you can understand how I think about everything and why. Plus some new guys will read this post could be useful for them as well. Just at the beginning back in 2011 I stumble on Peter Bain's trading like a big dogs seminair and among a lot of crap I was introduced to pivots and COT report, he was saying a lot about how you don't want to trade against merc guys etc. So I found CFTC site and dig deeper. I went back to every major turn in the market and compared with COT report and found that at...
swing it!
  • #909,997
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:43pm Jul 11, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah.. i am getting to the point of setting a large target and just letting it run with just a little early management. on their own merit, and leave them s/o or tp
Yet another lesson from you today...

Had these same numbers/lines since few days ago.

I did try on July 4th, s/o at 1.35800, tight S/L at BE

Then again July 7th, tight S/L (3 pips), now of course at BE

Both trades shown in the charts (blue lines)

The best of this is the easy BE's, the huge r/r/r and the validation/invalidation of the trade.

I combine it with my levels and is working wonders since I'm using it.
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  • #909,998
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:44pm Jul 11, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I did it many times over, cot is sentiment between gamblers and people who cost average their business, it's pure logic w/o 2 grand bloomberg terminal,spot main swing and compare it with COT then watch what both sides are doing. If you are late price will come back anyway. {quote}
No doubt the euro is bearish on large time frame. But I have no shorts position on it, so just play scalp on long on the short time frame. It missed last monthly pivot, and this quarterly pivot is right at last monthly pivot. The high probability is to go up to test the two pivots before it goes down again.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #909,999
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:46pm Jul 11, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting pedro319
OIL Bouncing nicely from Monthly support 1 and 100% Ret on Daily chart. Looking for scalp long and later bullish engulfing Daily chart or any other candlestick pattern to increase positions size I will post a chart here later. Cheers.
OIL
No signs of reversal and price went through Monthly S1 and Yearly pivot rather quickly reaching weekly S3. Probably heading towards .786 Ret weekly which is the last level I will look into.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #910,000
  • Jul 11, 2014 3:49pm Jul 11, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} Yet another lesson from you today... Had these same numbers/lines since few days ago. I did try on July 4th, s/o at 1.35800, tight S/L at BE Then again July 7th, tight S/L (3 pips), now of course at BE Both trades shown in the charts (blue lines) The best of this is the easy BE's, the huge r/r/r and the validation/invalidation of the trade. I combine it with my levels and is working wonders since I'm using it. {image}
or you could just learn to manage with a 500+ pip draw-down. its not my thing, but i hear some work magic using those.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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