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  • #900,621
  • May 25, 2014 12:45am May 25, 2014 12:45am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Those who have any reservations may try the following for just one week. This little experiment may place them from amateur to professional category. 1. Mark certain key levels near current pa. These levels could be historical support/resistance, weekly or daily high, low, open, close, etc. If not sure, use Gator's posted levels.
Interesting. What I do with a properly scaled chart is after price makes a lower low, and I'm itching to go long, but I don't want to get burned in the process, is instead of putting a 45 degree angle going into the future, I'll put a 135 degree angle going into the past, and put the time line of the previous high. And where the two intersect at, that's where I'll put my horizontal line, for price of interest to go long. The key is timing it. That's where I'll also put a 45 degree angle on that low, going into the future, and where it intersects with my price of interest, I'll then wait to see what it does after it intersects at. And once it drops below that line, without making a lower low, I'll then put a buy stop above that line and let it go. First chart belows shows what I'm talking about. The second chart shows where price is currently at in regards to that line of interest. Speaking of time. Time to take my drunk as a skunk azz to bed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #900,622
  • May 25, 2014 12:49am May 25, 2014 12:49am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} London and NY are closed on Monday but some news from EU on Sunday. What do you think? How this market will behave until Tuesday London Open or Tuesday NY Open? Should we trade during this period of time? If we decide to trade, what should we trade and what should be our strategy? I closed all my positions except one longer term before Friday NY open................. They are going to grind many like wheat in a flour mill.
One thing that I'll be trading is EUR/NZD come Sunday open, due to NZD trade balance coming out. Still figuring out where it will go. Good night.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #900,623
  • May 25, 2014 12:56am May 25, 2014 12:56am
Quoting ForExtraPips
{quote} One thing that I'll be trading is EUR/NZD come Sunday open, due to NZD trade balance coming out. Still figuring out where it will go. Good night.
Go long on this pair. So long.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #900,624
  • May 25, 2014 1:02am May 25, 2014 1:02am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Go long on this pair. So long.
Me think you're right. Will be keeping an eye on the 1.593x area to long at, with a tp @ that 1.610x area. Going to bed for real this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #900,625
  • May 25, 2014 2:42am May 25, 2014 2:42am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Go long on this pair. So long.
Gidday Chicky

Long also

but its struggling a bit 1.594

Small longs in case it falls below 1.59 again
  • #900,626
  • Edited 3:35am May 25, 2014 3:24am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Tom, which category below as Non Commercial and Commercial? Dealer/Intermediary Asset Manager/Institutional Leveraged Funds Is non Commercial having more impacts on spots price or the total of changes under each column from long to short and vice versa? {image}
I'll try to explain how I arrived at this so you can understand how I think about everything and why.
Plus some new guys will read this post could be useful for them as well.
Just at the beginning back in 2011 I stumble on Peter Bain's trading like a big dogs seminair and among a lot of crap I was introduced to pivots and COT report, he was saying a lot about how you don't want to trade against merc guys etc.
So I found CFTC site and dig deeper. I went back to every major turn in the market and compared with COT report and found that at every turn of the trend positions between players or players themselfs become flat on the exposure.
I believe that Forex, even if mainly speculative - it's a hedging market so is divided by two main players,
Non-Commercial Speculators (banks,hedge funds etc) and Commercial business(i.e.Toyota, Siemens)who needs to hedge their risk in price fluctuation and cost average value of currency.
So if market is driven by supply and demand one must sell to the other and that was the "aha" moment for me.
Bullish market eg:
Lets say eur/usd is at 1.20 and there is something announced by Draghi or Yellen, then you will see report after report how non comms acumulate positions, there are some reductions here and there but majority still buy while comms selling at those levels(hedging), then you can see gradual reduction in longs until report comes up flat/balanced like this:

In this case it was beginning of a bull run for euro
Quoting tomspin
Delayed COT report http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm What I have noticed fx euro and 3 months eurodollar positions become more balanced which could be a sign of bottom in the market. {image} upload images
in much simpler words imagine market and trends like this

So you want to use just futures report and simple part of it, look for a balance between the players and buy with non comms, never against them, this is just another tool I do not believe you can use COT to trade on daily basis but since you like to hold'em for longer this is something for you,
Please remember this is just MY theory on how to read the report

So far I managed to pick 1.20 1.37 in feb last year and now for third time seems to be a good thing to look at,
Maybe I am wrong about all of this, JeremyWS says it's irrelevant because futures are just fraction of the volume however what's better in OTC non regulated market than this???
I'd rather go along with merc guys than against them,
Hope this helps, pm me if you have further questions, time for some sunday afterrnoon and sun,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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swing it!
  • #900,627
  • May 25, 2014 3:31am May 25, 2014 3:31am
Quoting aahmad29
Its weekend guys {image}
oh dear, that's 100% me, I need a shrink
swing it!
  • #900,628
  • May 25, 2014 3:43am May 25, 2014 3:43am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I'll try to explain how I arrived at this so you can understand how I think about everything and why. Plus some new guys will read this post could be useful for them as well. Just at the beginning back in 2011 I stumble on Peter Bain's trading like a big dogs seminair and among a lot of crap I was introduced to pivots and COT report, he was saying a lot about how you don't want to trade against merc guys etc. So I found CFTC site and dig deeper. I believe that Forex, even if mainly speculative - it's a hedging market so is divided by two...
Thanks.

All the explanation for Commercial/Non Commercial is in here http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...atorynotes.pdf

Just wanted to understand your view on the changes under Non Commercial alone was confirmed as bearish for spots price.
  • #900,629
  • May 25, 2014 4:15am May 25, 2014 4:15am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Thanks. All the explanation for Commercial/Non Commercial is in here http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...atorynotes.pdf Just wanted to understand your view on the changes under Non Commercial alone was confirmed as bearish for spots price.
As I said, I do not believe you can trade on daily basis, COT is a tool showing general sentiment in the market, euro near 1.40 Draghi saying he's ready to act and he must do something (credibility) non comms selling after two years of buying this is how I would think about the market and this is how I would use COT.
swing it!
  • #900,630
  • May 25, 2014 5:21am May 25, 2014 5:21am
Quoting aahmad29
Its weekend guys {image}
lol..
  • #900,631
  • May 25, 2014 5:46am May 25, 2014 5:46am
%100 Profit in the 7 month.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post7490628
  • #900,632
  • May 25, 2014 7:32am May 25, 2014 7:32am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Those who have any reservations may try the following for just one week. This little experiment may place them from amateur to professional category. 1. Mark certain key levels near current pa. These levels could be historical support/resistance, weekly or daily high, low, open, close, etc. If not sure, use Gator's posted levels. 2. Wait for a) London Open, b) Asia Close, and c) NY Open 3. At a), b) and c), above, watch the market. Try to see what buyers and sellers are trying to do at these levels in that moment. Watch the market as it...
I'm in "re-thinking everything" mode.

Until now, I didn't have time to dig in a serious way. Now I have it.

Not ashamed of saying I'm on a DEMO account again and starting with an empty brain -not so sure it was filled with anything useful before-. I was trading for five years in real with strategies that were very secure but little rewarding. Did my own thing losing a few and winning a few with low risk, too low. The problem was never mm or r/r, the worst issue was volatility, you need to adapt to it when you play in certain styles.

I was very interested in Fibos and levels because it could help with my strategies.

Chicky, that's a very good idea. Why not try and see what happens? Just look at the charts and guess, as if it was just a kid's game. And then start to make the right questions and find the answers for them.

Regarding the precission issue, I've worked with some neurosurgeons for years. I could tell you some stories, good and bad stories. They have to be very precise people. I've also been in operating rooms where some patients were world-champions (soccer players, F1 drivers, motorcycle GP champions, golf, tennis, you name it). I've seen surgeons doing things that seemed impossible.

But even the best neurosurgeon wouldn't work while an earthquake is happening. So I agree with you.
Visit my Drumming & Percussion Blog - DrumsCult com
  • #900,633
  • May 25, 2014 8:27am May 25, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Fx-gtg
1.3774 is first support, April open
Second Support 1.3589
  • #900,634
  • May 25, 2014 11:01am May 25, 2014 11:01am
Hi all
This is my first post here, no noise intended.
Daily long term trend is clearly bullish but euro has suffered from Mr. Draghi's words a couple of weeks ago.
This chart tells me it's time the bulls come to action, last candle closed below SMA200, what do you guys say?
Today we have EU elections and all sustained trends may flip.
Thanks, happy trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 54 KB
  • #900,635
  • May 25, 2014 11:06am May 25, 2014 11:06am
Quoting AR.dadkhah
%100 Profit in the 7 month. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post7490628
So what ya waiting for? go on be the best, forbes and shit, what you want here?
swing it!
  • #900,636
  • May 25, 2014 11:29am May 25, 2014 11:29am
Quoting aahmad29
its weekend guys {image}
屌丝注定孤独一生。
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4M0S220140524
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #900,637
  • May 25, 2014 12:39pm May 25, 2014 12:39pm
Quoting geniusztc
{quote}屌丝注定孤独一生。 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4M0S220140524
any update on Draghi's speech?
  • #900,638
  • May 25, 2014 1:17pm May 25, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I'll try to explain how I arrived at this so you can understand how I think about everything and why. Plus some new guys will read this post could be useful for them as well. Just at the beginning back in 2011 I stumble on Peter Bain's trading like a big dogs seminair and among a lot of crap I was introduced to pivots and COT report, he was saying a lot about how you don't want to trade against merc guys etc. So I found CFTC site and dig deeper. I went back to every major turn in the market and compared with COT report and found that at...
good reasoning. But I tend to agree with JeremyWS.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX-turnover_233.png Size: 301 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #900,639
  • May 25, 2014 1:31pm May 25, 2014 1:31pm
Last Thursday, French's Manufacturing PMIs fallen unexpectly below 50 together with German's PMIs falling down to 52.9 from 54.1, creating more uncertainty if the eurozone is indeed recovering as what the market has expected. This also increases the possibility the need of reducing interest rate by the ECB to spur growth in hitting targetted inflation.
Technically speaking, we seen double top formed after breaking below 1.3670, the supporting line. Going forward towards next meeting, I would see the Euro trading between 1.3560 - 1.3670 level.
Historically speaking, most of double top break-out would see a re-test at the neckline. Therefore, currently, we can look out to short the Euro when it's nearer to these level.

Here's my reasoning/charting: http://alternateforexiew.wordpress.c...hat-to-expect/
Knowledge is powerful tool that we can ever have.
  • #900,640
  • May 25, 2014 2:18pm May 25, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Vachus
{quote} MT4 or MT5, register a demo account - with Meta quotes ...
thank you
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