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  • #21
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:13am Jul 9, 2012 6:13am
I managed to place another short sell @ 1,0180 got four atm and will leave them for now so I can have room to limit my risk on levels below.
H4 still doesn't go along with other TF's I expect to see rather long upper shadow or pin.
Euro managed to find new high for the session and quickly rejected that level on M15 - still going east.
Cabel doing pretty much the same but I do have short sell @ 1,5495 we must cross 85 and 75 to see further down move.
swing it!
  • #22
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:35am Jul 9, 2012 11:35am
Quoting 5percent
i am looking at 1.2330-40 for a sell with tight stop in case bull is unleashed. i wait for resistance to form, and tested 2 times at least
My 4 hour says , it can test 1.2324-1.2333 at area and possible to hit through offers, and into buy stop.

current hour1 RSI is 50 in neutral zone out from bearish momentum.

1.2275 is supporting the 1hourly upmove, on all 15 minutes and 5 minutes momentum.

4hours says bullish favor or testing resistance 1 where selling off at 1.2330.

daily is currently building up bullishness.

i don't sell this at lower stochastic. its moving up on daily chart at least next few moments.


just hit my tp as i write.
  • #23
  • Jul 9, 2012 1:05pm Jul 9, 2012 1:05pm
Seems like 2316 is a good barrier for today, next fence would be 2344 and 2372
I placed third short sell @ 2315 this could take some time like with aussie which some levels are underwater atm.
On cabel I do have 5537 5565 and 5589 as the final fence.
Overall a very boring session but what could we expect after fridays ride?
swing it!
  • #24
  • Edited 5:35pm Jul 9, 2012 5:24pm | Edited 5:35pm
Delayed COT report

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

What I have noticed fx euro and 3 months eurodollar positions become more balanced which could be a sign of bottom in the market.

http://s15.postimage.org/fpldzinaz/cot.jpg
upload images
swing it!
  • #25
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:44pm Jul 9, 2012 5:44pm
Quoting tomspin
Delayed COT report

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

What I have noticed fx euro and 3 months eurodollar positions become more balanced which could be a sign of bottom in the market.

http://s15.postimage.org/fpldzinaz/cot.jpg
upload images
Non-commercial traders have been building a heavy net short position. I like to look at the Oanda order book to see what the average sheep is doing. They are primarily short right now. Situations like these are prime for banks to run through some retail trader bankrolls. After such a monumental fall over the past week a lot of retail guys are trying to ride the gravy train home. We also just ran a ton of stops by busting the 1.2280 low from June 1st. I got a long at around 1.2230 (on gmt S1, at the bottom of the gap low). Going to hold on to it for now, hoping to see some relief to the upside for now.
  • #26
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:53pm Jul 9, 2012 5:53pm
hey tomspin, whish you all the best for this thread!

posted my current outlook here: #10546

  • #27
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:53pm Jul 9, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting C5fx
Non-commercial traders have been building a heavy net short position. I like to look at the Oanda order book to see what the average sheep is doing. They are primarily short right now. Situations like these are prime for banks to run through some retail trader bankrolls. After such a monumental fall over the past week a lot of retail guys are trying to ride the gravy train home. We also just ran a ton of stops by busting the 1.2280 low from June 1st. I got a long at around 1.2230 (on gmt S1, at the bottom of the gap low). Going to hold on...
Last report showed a sharp decline in long positions (about 50%) I guess they positioned themself for ECB decision, I am bearish atm and see further decline but COT is something I always read and consider.

Great entry, move your stops and protect position, she failed to hold above 2320 London should give us more direction tommorow/today.

This is a brief explanation how to read COT and what it is if anybody who's reading wondering.

http://www.babypips.com/school/commi...rs-report.html
swing it!
  • #28
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:55pm Jul 9, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting 2046
hey tomspin, whish you all the best for this thread!

posted my current outlook here: #10546

Thanks, drop a line from time to time
swing it!
  • #29
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:58pm Jul 9, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting tomspin
Last report showed a sharp decline in long positions (about 50%) I guess they positioned themself for ECB decision, I am bearish atm and see further decline but COT is something I always read and consider.

Great entry, move your stops and protect position, she failed to hold above 2320 London should give us more direction tommorow/today.

This is a brief explanation how to read COT and what it is if anybody who's reading wondering.

http://www.babypips.com/school/commi...rs-report.html
Yeah, I agree with your sentiment. I think everyone wants to see a run on 1.18xx. Daily flows are definitely pointing down there. I'm trying to decide on a good place to put my stop right now to protect what I've made. Going to wait to see what Asian session brings. I've moved it to just below 1.22700/NY central pivot for the time being.
  • #30
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:15pm Jul 9, 2012 6:15pm
Hey and thanks for a "clean" thread .

With today's PA and the oversold condition I'd like to see prices climb towards 1.2360 > 1,24. Also watching the H4 stochastics for hidden bearish divergence before entering any short at this stage.
  • #31
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:39pm Jul 9, 2012 6:39pm
Hey Bro
Thread going along nicely.

I agree about a possible bottom, 1hr has started to build an ascending chanel / bearflag, 2287 was always going to be a tough nut, similar situation with other ladies, however they are presently running into some minor but nice resistance

I switched station off last night, screentime overload, looks like didnt miss much, but back on board now waiting for asias reaction.

For me is still China releases and Merkel are key for pa movement, and Im expecting some fireworks,

My bias has always been south, see no reason to change just yet, I am looking to add position shortly, will see what tokyo and singapore signs give
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #32
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:48pm Jul 9, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting tomspin
Delayed COT report

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

What I have noticed fx euro and 3 months eurodollar positions become more balanced which could be a sign of bottom in the market.

http://s15.postimage.org/fpldzinaz/cot.jpg
upload images
thanks man
  • #33
  • Jul 9, 2012 7:29pm Jul 9, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Hey Bro
Thread going along nicely.

I agree about a possible bottom, 1hr has started to build an ascending chanel / bearflag, 2287 was always going to be a tough nut, similar situation with other ladies, however they are presently running into some minor but nice resistance

I switched station off last night, screentime overload, looks like didnt miss much, but back on board now waiting for asias reaction.

For me is still China releases and Merkel are key for pa movement, and Im expecting some fireworks,

My bias has always been...
sushi looking good so far
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #34
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:07pm Jul 9, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Hey Bro
Thread going along nicely.

I agree about a possible bottom, 1hr has started to build an ascending chanel / bearflag, 2287 was always going to be a tough nut, similar situation with other ladies, however they are presently running into some minor but nice resistance

I switched station off last night, screentime overload, looks like didnt miss much, but back on board now waiting for asias reaction.

For me is still China releases and Merkel are key for pa movement, and Im expecting some fireworks,

My bias has always...

Nice Tokyo Open trade, has just tap ltl of flag, waiting to see if sellers can take that out and then attack 2287, nice start to day
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #35
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:20pm Jul 9, 2012 8:20pm
Wish you well with your Tread Sir!

Mid fib did not hold for the time being . Could be looking for retest of the low or a stop hunt. Still room to the to @ 2345 but stoch is turnig.. Lets see...

Best Regards..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:19pm Jul 9, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Nice Tokyo Open trade, has just tap ltl of flag, waiting to see if sellers can take that out and then attack 2287, nice start to day
LTL of flag breached now to try take out 2287, her is very squeezed, if it go with conviction could be some nice quick pips, because is nice support.

Once again not place to be selling it would be selling support, entries should be much higher
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #37
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:41am Jul 10, 2012 12:41am
Mornin', 'gents.

After reading the COT myself, and trying to decipher to my best, we could hit a bottom here, if there are no negative news from the EU, given that the 3 months orders on EU FX are almost equal.

From a technical point of view, we have supports at 1.2285 and 1.2255. Next support would be 1.220ish, and 1.215ish.

Resistances are present on the upside at 1.2300 (round and psych number), 1.231ish-1.2320, 1.2360 to a maximum move without any kind of good news or intervention to 1.2390-1.24.

From a fundamental point of view, 'gents, the euro is in deep shit, so expect rallies on every type of good news that comes out of the EU, especially from ECB officials or Merkel.

Though it's not expected, be on the lookout for QE3 hints from FED officials or Bernanke himself, they have the gift and ability to manipulate with a single word.

Safe trading, see you on the thread.
Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
  • #38
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:58am Jul 10, 2012 12:58am
We have a little bounce on the Friday close right now (1.2282). We tapped this level a couple of times yesterday and traded back up. There are a lot of conflicting signals here, but my short term bias is long for now. I think in situations like this if you don't have a position it's best to just step back and wait for more information from the market.
  • #39
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:38am Jul 10, 2012 2:38am
Good morning all

Over night drop in Euro was really nice and as I am writing I can see more weakness lay up ahead. Chilly posted nice signal - good point to start position again if somebody's not on it yet. Good place for sideliners would be under 1,2275 I do have my last sell stop at 70.
Aussie gave me a faster heart rate yesterday - doing a bit of countertrading here as daily and h4 is in uptrend I missed!!!!Maybe because I don't use much trendlines. Anything under 1.0160 will be a confirmation of my plan however I am ready to liquidate my position if necessary.
Cabel on its path to 1,5400 - 1,5537 was to much of a resistance. More shorts in COT and we could be testing 1,5400 today or tommorow.

Agree with Kiwi - Markel & China will be playing key role in this week.

Green pips gents, have a safe session
swing it!
  • #40
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:43am Jul 10, 2012 2:43am
ah ha found you all

nice thread tom
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