Euro/Dollar

So you dig a post to embarres me and show others that I know shit,
well you missed many others on the way

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post5826473

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post6395501

I am about 200 pips from the target atm

http://s18.postimage.org/hoyn66zih/a...markets_as.png
image hosting

get real stop attacking people who are here because they care about trading not the number of daily hits on their blog,
I am really dissapointed I decided to remove my vouch for you.
Good luck

not a problem

Tomspin,
I see what I see. The target for scenario 1 is 1.41. There are other scenarios as well. As said below 1.2715 I will open up to bearish scenarios. It's not time just yet. What I or you think is not really important.
I am always open to different scenarios. I think we can go higher: this is one of the scenarios and until something changes it is the highest probability scenario, at least for me.
Price is king and price will tell... Saying there is no 1.40 or you cannot see it does not mean that the market cannot go there.

BTW I have had a swing short from Feb highs down to 1.30, so I took part of the move down. Neither you or I know if this is going to continue.

Good luck with your shorts.

weekly volume highest last 4 weeks. each time we break swing low, price didn't move much to the down side. i don't think those are sellers.

of course there is no sellers from current levels but there is many from 1,37 - they will defend it heavy, I would give euro rally up to 1,3257 with second attack at 1,35.
I had a very nice PM from one of the members about that post and I am not naive, 1.40 is possible but I just don't see fundie push need it:

1. Europe is in shambles again
2. France diverging from Germany with rapid pace
3. US "improving"
4. Europe is expected to be in the better shape from the fall of this year - these are Draghi's words that is why I mentioned Q3 as a possible leg up for euro/dollar (if I am wrong about SP500)
5. I believe we are about to top in SP I'll give it 1585 and then au revoir

My theory is based on COT positions and we can see similair pattern between COT from Sept 2007 and recent data - I might be wrong and this will flight to virgins terytory,
But this is my opinion - Rob will love this since I "recommended" a sell when the markets were "bottoming"
Anyway hope this explain a bit my stance.

PS - I would hold OZ up to target you posted in the other thread - same number I'll be watching.

.............

Dear FF Traders

This is my simple summarisation of almost two years of trading and what I have learned about it so far. I decided to write what I believe is neccesary to achieve success in this business - in other words to give something back to FF community.
Lets start from the top:

1. Do I trade fundamentaly or technicaly?

You trade both. Most people trade just one side and missing important factor that Market is traded/created in a fundamental way and trades are place in a technical way. In other words you determine sentiment(bull/bear) by digesting fundamental data and look for the best price level to enter. When you hear somebody telling you "oh fundie is crap, or oh tech are always wrong" this person is probably not very succesful trader and has a lot to learn about the market.
Learn fundamental, filter important info from all the noise - the easy way to start to learn, is to go back to your weekly charts, find last top/bottom in your favourite pair. Analyse what kind of data was released, compare it with previous quarter or two, maybe somebody said something(minister of finance, head of CB), where was oil at that day, how bond market looked like etc. I believe that head of Central Banks should be listen very carefully, Non farm payrolls do not change or create trending market, only big political comments do.
It is hard to trade fundamentaly, but with time you will learn what kind of information is important and what can be ignored. Combine it with technicals and you are golden.


2. Do I trade intraday, swing or position?

That really depends on your personality, time on hands and account size.

Itraday - if you are looking for 20 pips a day, you do not want to keep open trades overnight and want to be in the market for a short period of time then intraday is the way to go, try to focus on one pair and lower time frames (from M1 to M15)

Swing - slightly bigger targets and longer exposure to risk often kept overnight, trade more than one pair on higher time frames (from M15 up to H4)

Positiom - you want a ride the main waves for the trading year without looking at charts every five minutes, trade many pairs on higher timeframes (from D1 up to Monthly)

I personally like swing/position but learning about intraday atm. There are pros and cons in every type of trading, in my opinion account capitalisation and free time is the biggest factor in choosing what type of trader you want to be.
I also believe that any new trader should trade daily time frames for at least full year to learn patience and then if successfull gradualy go lower with target/time frames and increase position size.
The biggest untrue in forex world is that if you are trading Daily TF you cannot go with full lots - this statement was created and repeated by thousands of traders who were not sufficiently funded.

3. Charts

- Candle patterns are important but ONLY at the right time and place
- Candle patterns can be destroyed in seconds by news (fundamental)
- Use pivot points, probably the best available technical tool out there
- focus on price action, leave just one indy if you like, having macd, rsi, cci and 10 other indicators at your screen will confuse you and it is pointless.
- most indicators are good in the specyfic trading conditions(RSI - ranging, MA's - trending)
- Keep it nice and clean, I have tested many colour themes and decided that slightly creamy background with black and white candles are the best but you should choose whatever you like and work for you.

4. Account size, Money managment, RRR(Risk Reward ratio)

Your account size should match your minimal monthly expectations - to be fair and honest I believe that 10% a month is a safe asumption so if you want to have extra cash or go full time - be well capitalised.
Money managment is the key component here and connected with RRR, If you start your position never risk more than 3% of your account and have at least 3:1 RRR if things goes your way you can increase your risk - check what Soros think about directional commitment in trade and a size of the position.

5. COT (commitments of traders) - http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ders/index.htm

Released every week on friday, shows current position/size and number of traders involved - focus on "Chicago Mercantile Exchange - short format".
COT is missused in my opinion and underrated among FF traders, it is a great tool to spot major trend shift in any currency, examples are in this tread on the first few pages, nobody actually respond to my claims in a serious manner about this.

6. The edge - ultimate goal

Be different then most, master MM/RRR, look for opportunities, think fast but be patient, don't be greedy, stay humble and follow the market not your own wishes, this is a very tough thing to do.
Never give up.

Not much but it sums up nicely and simply what I think and learned about trading in FF since I've been part of this place.
You will meet great minds here, absorb as much as you can and give back a bit when the time is right.
I am about to finish my episode with France and come back home, will start to trade again and do not want to be influence by anybody.
Big thanks goes to all who V me - gave a helping hand and believe that I can do it one day,
I'll see you one day
Goodbye
Tom

Hello all,
FibStalker is back (and who cares?). Okay enough for self-greeting! . Hope you all are well. My Easter trip was awesome!

Immediately back to business... I want to remind you all my latest reviews on the Euro FX currency futures I made before leaving:

post #6524356 and in my newsletter (last one sent on March 17th).

This is my up to date view of the Euro (daily chart):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1365577267



In the last weeks/months we have heard a lot about the Euro demise and lower prices projections. But the failure level indicated before leaving for my trip (1.2715 on the June contract) was never violated on the downside. The potential to 1.41 area is still intact and, indeed, this target will be confirmed if/when prices climb above 1.3360.

As usual my two scenarios going forward:

Scenario 1. The Euro is not likely to offer a throw-back at this stage and it is very possible that will just continue generally higher into the 1.3360 area (and higher) before we get a sensible correction. Such a move downwards could bring prices into the 1.3140 before a renewed move higher to the next level of profit taking (close to February highs). Congratulations to those who followed my advice and were not distracted by the heavily negative news!

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility that we get a retrace here, in which case we could see price back into the 1.3000 area where the 20-day SMA could be met and offer support. This would be a good long entry to those who lost the train.

If you lost the train now be patient. If we don't get scenario 2 (lower probability), you will need to wait for price to move higher into and above the 1.3360 area before a potential retrace into 1.3140. Good luck.

PS: if you find my analysis compelling and correct, as well as, if it helped you, feel free to vouch me!

All the best.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367355901



The two scenarios going forward are (please refer to the above picture):


Scenario 1. The 1.3230 is a very important area and it could show participation on the downside. Notice that price held the 1.2990 area of support with a first target in the 1.3310 area, well above the 1.3230. If price is capable of piearcing the 1.3230 area I anticipate a continuation higher with a move into 1.3310 and a continuation to and above 1.3354. If the 1.3354 level is broken on the upside the 1.41 final swing target will be confirmed.

Scenario 2. If the 1.3230 important area holds and offer significant resistance, we could see a move lower due to the “sell in May and go away” effect, as well as, a reaction to BCE lowering interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday. In that case we price could move lower to retest the 1.2980 area (or lower).

As usual I am interested in your thoughts and ideas and you can watch the video related to the explanation of the above scenarios on my blog.

Cheers
-fibstalker