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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #23,861
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:08pm Mar 8, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting Thijs
It's not in the press yet.

Belgium goes to European council with an extra 600 million euro shortage on budget than agreed with Europe.
I'd like to see what Portugal's budget shortfall actually looks like instead of the 5.8% "estimated" figure they put out last week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,862
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:10pm Mar 8, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting BrunargarFx
I actually put a long @ 1.323, SL: 1.322, TP 1.331 Small position. I might revert it to short if clean break of 1.322.

Although we broke the LTL of yesterday's move, momentum should have gone through 1.3225. Not convinced of further move down, at least not yet. Looks like an expected pullback from yesterday's move. But need clean break of 1.324 for further continuation North
yes the daily pivot is holding quite well so far... but too early to tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,863
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:10pm Mar 8, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting Cerber.bf2
right, waiting for london
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,864
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:13pm Mar 8, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting Cerber.bf2
right, waiting for london
Got the coffee machine started! Hopefully the market gets as hyper as I will be.
  • #23,865
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:15pm Mar 8, 2012 11:15pm
We've just retested yesterday's LTL from the bottom, need to break above it for further continuation North. I've amended my SL to BE
Quoting PipTrapper
yes the daily pivot is holding quite well so far... but too early to tell.
  • #23,866
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:15pm Mar 8, 2012 11:15pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Got the coffee machine started! Hopefully the market gets as hyper as I will be.
exactly, stocking it up!
coffee and push ups to stay awake
  • #23,867
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:26pm Mar 8, 2012 11:26pm
S/O @ BE
Quoting BrunargarFx
We've just retested yesterday's LTL from the bottom, need to break above it for further continuation North. I've amended my SL to BE
  • #23,868
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:41pm Mar 8, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting BrunargarFx
S/O @ BE
Good call. You don't want to marry a trade in this market.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,869
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:47pm Mar 8, 2012 11:47pm
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120309161082/

Snippet:

Daily Report: Sentiments Lifted as Greece Passed PSI Hurdle, But Markets Cautious Again Ahead of NFP

Sentiments are further lifted today as Greece has successfully completed the PSI bond swap deal. The Ministry of Finance just confirmed that participation rate reached as 85.8%. And Greek government is optimistic that after activating the collective action clauses, overall participation could surpass 95%. Greece has cleared an important hurdle in securing the second EUR 130b bailout from EU. Finance Minister Venizelos will have a call with Eurozone finance ministers later today on the progress while IMF will discuss the bailout for Greece on March 13. EUR/USD recovered strongly cover high but faced some resistance ahead of 1.33 level.

While the Greece risk is cleared, focus will now turn to non-farm payroll from US today. Markets are expecting 210k job growth in February while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 8.3%. Looking at the leading indicators, ADP job report showed 216k expansion in the private job market. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims improved notably from 375k to 355k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing dropped form 54.3 to 53.2 in February while that of ISM services dropped from 57.4 to 55.7. Nonetheless both employment components stayed comfortably above 50 level. Hence, today's Non-farm payroll report will likely show healthy job growth even though it would possibly be lower than January's 243k.
  • #23,870
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:55pm Mar 8, 2012 11:55pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ults-view.html

Editorials
Banks Shouldn’t Be Both Judge and Jury on Credit Defaults: View


http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iRsyjlm71mZg.jpg Illustration by Bloomberg View

The CDS market, thanks to ISDA and pressure from the New York Fed, already operates far more smoothly than it did just a few years ago. Until 2009, the question of whether a credit event had occurred was duked out between each CDS buyer and seller. A major default could have brought financial disaster. Still, the CDS market would benefit further if ISDA deliberations were made public -- minutes could even be released a week or two after the fact, the way the Federal Reserve publishes its monetary policy deliberations.

More to the point, monumental decisions involving billions of dollars ideally should be made by an outside, independent group. ISDA already has such groups in the wings, but it uses them only in case a determinations committee can’t get agreement from a supermajority and needs to hand off the matter to a neutral panel.

In any market, secrecy begets fear. The credit markets must be supremely confident that judgments about credit events are made in good faith. And investors must believe they are being dealt with fairly. If they think default insurance no longer protects them, they might simply avoid owning the bonds of Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, undermining the CDS market and endangering those countries’ ability to survive the debt crisis.
  • #23,871
  • Mar 8, 2012 11:58pm Mar 8, 2012 11:58pm
Still moving down but I have to admit I'm not really that confident about this trade.... but at least I'm in the green.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m15.gif Size: 35 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,872
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:10am Mar 9, 2012 12:10am
That's right.
Didn't get my level - moved SL to BE to avoid any loss.
I might wait til after NFP to trade. Daughter is sick this morning, will take care of her.



Quoting PipTrapper
Good call. You don't want to marry a trade in this market.
  • #23,873
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:13am Mar 9, 2012 12:13am
well done, good catch.
We had retest of yesterday LTL and then further move down. Break of 1.3225 should open 1.321.
Below that 3184 but 50% retracement would be 1.3194 so don't know if we'll get (if we do) there before NFP?


Quoting PipTrapper
Still moving down but I have to admit I'm not really that confident about this trade.... but at least I'm in the green.

Attachment
  • #23,874
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:14am Mar 9, 2012 12:14am
Greek Press Conference 11:00 GMT

Re: CAC'S as in Ca Ca

ISDA Meeting 13:00 GMT

Did Greece Default ? They Decide...

EU Leader's Press Conference No Set Time... After Though...

NFP at 8:30 AM

EUR/USD Range 1.3180 to 1.3280 Range

EUR/USD trades at 1.3222 as of this report
  • #23,875
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:22am Mar 9, 2012 12:22am
Possible end of downmove for now
Quoting BrunargarFx
well done, good catch.
We had retest of yesterday LTL and then further move down. Break of 1.3225 should open 1.321.
Below that 3184 but 50% retracement would be 1.3194 so don't know if we'll get (if we do) there before NFP?
  • #23,876
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:59am Mar 9, 2012 12:59am
Quoting BrunargarFx
Possible end of downmove for now
not quite

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,877
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:59am Mar 9, 2012 12:59am
Quoting BrunargarFx
Possible end of downmove for now
E/U is not a good wife who listens her husband ;-)
  • #23,878
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:02am Mar 9, 2012 1:02am
I was just looking at this

1.3213 is 50% retracement from bottom of yesterday low.


Quoting PipTrapper
not quite

Attachment
  • #23,879
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:03am Mar 9, 2012 1:03am
Quoting rekon67
E/U is not a good wife who listens her husband ;-)
Possible cup .. and Handle forming... 1.3220 is a light historical support .. don't buy but wait for the top of the Handle ;-)
  • #23,880
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:06am Mar 9, 2012 1:06am
PS: When I made my call I saw a downward wedge that got broken.

move back to DP is creepling death to me and my system indicated possible end of downmove but needed confirmation still.
I'm out now, will be back after NFP. Trade safe all.


Quoting BrunargarFx
I was just looking at this

1.3213 is 50% retracement from bottom of yesterday low.
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