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ForexLive North American wrap: Greek PSI appears successful


Greek PSI deadline passes
Rumors/reports centered around 80-85% participation
Officials indicate over 75% participation
Results to be released at 0600 GMT
ECB holds rates at 1.00%, as expected
Draghi hikes inflation forecast, cuts on growth
Draghi: no discussion of rate cuts
Draghi: sees many signs of a return of confidence
Initial jobless claims 362K vs 352K exp
Bank of Canada holds at 1.00%, as expected
BOC: inflation firmer than anticipated
US Challenger job cuts 51.7K vs 53.5K prior
US household debt rises 0.3% in Q4
Portugal says it will not ask for more money, time
NZD and EUR lead, JPY lags
S&P 500 gains 1% to 1365

EUR/USD into the session at 1.3250. Draghi’s initial forecasts about high inflation ratcheted EUR/USD up to 1.3274 (above the 100 dma) but the clarification that this is due to high energy prices reversed the trade. Adding to the downward momentum was the cut in growth forecasts, even if Draghi noted signs of stabilization. That sent the euro to a press-conference low of 1.3225. After the press conference, semi-official rumors or higher and higher PSI participation sparked a rally as high as 1.3291.

USD/JPY started at 81.77, the highs of the day. Trading was choppy, slipping down to 81.32 as stocks fell at the open on European growth concerns. Optimism about the debt swap renewed the climb to 81.65.

USD/CAD promptly droppped 35 pips to 0.9920 after the BOC, after a brief bounce it continued lower, falling below 0.99 before settling just above.

Greece closes offer with bond swap set to pass

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8270FH20120308

QUOTE:"If all goes well, tomorrow we will be able to announce that a debt burden of 105 billion euros has been lifted from the Greek people," Venizelos told parliament earlier in the day. "For the first time we are cutting debt instead of adding to it."

What a freakin' quote........default on debt obligations and call it cutting debt!

BEWARE of Greeks bearing gifts!

GOFER thought: " Maybe helicopter Ben and U.S. Congress can cut or eliminate US debt instead of adding to it by screwing all the creditors the way Greece is screwing the creditors of which pension funds of public employees are included."

Big fat lie.. even fatter than his two fingers.

Screw creditors out of 105 billion and then go borrow 130 from the troika plus add another 50m billion in a third bailout bringing the total additional debt to 180 billion

So 180 billion minus 105 billion tells me they are adding 75 billion to their debt.

http://neoskosmos.com/news/sites/def.../venizelos.jpg

"First bring me a gyro this big, and then we'll talk about your money"

.

I must be doing something right

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...03/2012_432010

What a joke !!! Read this from Greece !!! April 11, 2012 Anyone ???

Snippet:

Friday’s announcement will not be the end of PSI for Greece as there is still the issue of some 18 billion euros of Greek bonds under other countries’ laws to settle. This amount accounts for 8.7 percent of the total privately held debt of 205 billion euros that Greece is seeking to restructure.

The bonds are written under UK, Swiss, Japanese, US and French law. Holders of these notes will have until April 11 to swap them. Greece’s public enterprises (DEKOs) also hold 3 billion euros of these bonds.

And Now The Whole Article !!!


Greece prepares to announce participation rate in PSI




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_0803.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
The deadline for Greek bondholders to agree to a voluntary debt restructuring scheme passed on Thursday night and the government is expected to announce on Friday morning that well over 75 percent of investors will take part in the swap.

Government officials remained tight-lipped over the participation rate of investors who hold 177 billion euros of bonds written under Greek law but momentum appeared to build throughout the day.

“I look forward to maximum participation by the private sector, which will contribute significantly to the effort to adjust and restore our economy,” Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said during a cabinet meeting.

Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which has been negotiating on behalf of large private creditors, said he believed the participation would likely be ”very, very high.”

Athens needed at least 66 percent of those holding bonds written under Greek law to take part in the deal. This would allow it to effect collective action clauses (CACs) imposing losses on the holdouts as well.

Friday’s announcement will not be the end of PSI for Greece as there is still the issue of some 18 billion euros of Greek bonds under other countries’ laws to settle. This amount accounts for 8.7 percent of the total privately held debt of 205 billion euros that Greece is seeking to restructure.

The bonds are written under UK, Swiss, Japanese, US and French law. Holders of these notes will have until April 11 to swap them. Greece’s public enterprises (DEKOs) also hold 3 billion euros of these bonds.
Greece has the option of either not paying these bonds at all or subjecting them to a greater haircut than the one for bonds written under Greek law.

Whichever option Greece chooses, it is likely to face legal challenges from the investors who hold these notes.

The decision over which course to take is likely to depend on the participation rate in yesterday’s debt swap. Greece needs to have an overall participation rate between 95 and 100 percent to satisfy the eurozone and the IMF that it is on its way to making its debt sustainable.

If today’s announcement reveals a lower participation rate than desired, Greece could have to default on the bonds that are written under foreign law.

Papademos described as “shortsighted” the decision of some pension funds not to take part in PSI. Seven pension funds holding about 3 billion euros agreed to join the scheme but six funds with some 3.5 billion euros refused to accept a haircut.

Kno's Comments: What A Bunch Of Clowns...

Comments Welcome

Yogi Berra: It Ain't Over Until It Is Over...

Go that right!

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...bonds-u-s-jobs

Snippet:

This morning’s favorable news flow should help stocks sustain the positive momentum from Wednesday. Greece’s private sector bond swap, whose uncertain fate had gripped the markets in recent days, appears to be attracting enough participation to make the deal binding on all bondholders.

The details of the swap will come out Friday morning, but growing optimism about the deal is helping bring down the yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds, which had started creeping back up in recent days.

Friday morning not only clears up the air on the Greek situation, but will also likely confirm the recent improving trend in the U.S. labor market though the February non-farm report. This morning’s modestly weaker-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report nevertheless confirms the improving jobs picture, helping build expectations of a strong labor reading tomorrow. The expectation is that a favorable labor market read on Friday will serve as the key catalyst to push stocks above resistance levels.

Initial Jobless Claims came in a tad weaker than expected last week – up 8K to 362K vs. expectations of a lower rise. The prior week’s tally was modestly revised upwards to 354K from the originally reported 353K. The four-week average, which smoothes out the week-to-week fluctuation, moved up by a mere 250 to 355K.

This week’s modest ‘miss’ notwithstanding, the overall trend in the labor market has consistently been in favorable direction lately. It will be interesting to see if Friday’s jobs report will further confirm this trend.

Kno's Comments: NFP - Early Guess - 150,000

Greece Who Knows When It Will Ever End... Good News is already in the market so any BAD news will not be good. We shall soon see in less than 12 hours.

Popcorn Anyone ?

P.S. MY Title was said in jest as everyone had High Hopes for a solution that would help the banks and harm the Citizens. Everyone is the Banksters.


JUST SAY NO !!!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...=c&a=2&w=5&v=s

The bond swap take-up figure is 85.8%

Now we see if the rest get CACed

Meeting of ISDA at 13:00 CET to determine if credit event has occurred.

Greece says 85.8% of bondholders have accepted bond swap offer


Has received tenders and consents for 152 bln euros under Greek law

Holders of 172 bln euros worth of bonds in total have consented to bond offer

95.7% of total face amount of bonds in swap if consent to amendments to Greek law bonds are accepted

Has extended invitation period to bonds under non-Greek law and issued by state companies to March 23

To amend bonds issued by Greek state companies, in a manner similar to the amendment proposed for Greek-law bonds

There will be no further opportunity for applicable creditors to accept swap offer after March 23

... and down we go. How far? I don't know

Short at 1.3248

Attachment

im being defensive here, shorting after the break of 312x

Not sure it's going to reach that far down at this point. We will know more later but so far the market reaction is quite muted.

Typo: I guess you meant 1.322 (With support @ 1.3225)?

It's not in the press yet.

Belgium goes to European council with an extra 600 million euro shortage on budget than agreed with Europe.

yep, thank you

right, waiting for london

I actually put a long @ 1.323, SL: 1.322, TP 1.331 Small position. I might revert it to short if clean break of 1.322.

Although we broke the LTL of yesterday's move, momentum should have gone through 1.3225. Not convinced of further move down, at least not yet. Looks like an expected pullback from yesterday's move. But need clean break of 1.324 for further continuation North