EurAnalysis

This may have an impact on E/U

Times are CET (GMT+1)

good eyes!

whats upppppppp everybodyyyyyyyyyy
I hate my current faking Job ya

http://www.myemoticons.com/images/em...uter-smash.gif

This is FXM at work.

http://www.myemoticons.com/images/em...nted/pouty.gif

Waiting for reaction here. Maybe take profit, maybe add. Let us see what happens...

radical

Orderboard……
Written by Joe Brown
March 9, 2012 at 10:25 GMT

Morning all, TGIF….

EUR/USD: Sell stops down through 1.3190 and 1.3180. Offers 1.3290/00, buy stops up through 1.3310

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5750/55 and better down at 1.5725/30. Good offers 1.5825/35, better at 1.5850/75. tech res 1.5880 (200 DMA)

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8360/65, better down at 0.8340/45. Offers 0.8395/00 (0.8400- 14 DMA). Tech res 0.8439 (100 DMA)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0615/20, 1.0590/95, tech support 1.0542 (55 DMA). Offers strong towards 1.0665/70 and 1.0690/00

AUD/JPY: Bids 86.55/60 (Toushin related), offers 87.20/30

USD/JPY: Offers 81.90/00, barrier at 82.00, offers above from 82.25 up to 82.50 with buy stops above. Bids down at 81.45/50 and 81.30/35.

EUR/JPY: Offers 108.60/65, Bids 107.60/65

GOLD: Tech support 1695.60 (100 DMA) and better down at 1679.10 (200 DMA). Resistance 1717 and 1726

USD/CAD: Support/bids 0.9890/95, likely sell stops just below. Offers 0.9920/25 and 0.9960/65

NZD/USD: Sell stops down through 0.8220 and 0.8200, Offers ahead of 0.8280 and 0.8300

like to see a break down under

Euro Group Conference Call Brought Forward to 6:30 AM EST (11:30 GMT)

European morning wrap: Surprisingly calm session. Is it the calm before the storm?

Written by Gerry Davies
March 9, 2012 at 10:45 GMT


Greek debt swap at 95% after bondholders forced to join – Bloomberg

Derivatives body ISDA says will meet at 13:00 GMT on Friday to determine if Greek sovereign credit event has occurred

Italian Dep FinMin Grilli: Greece’s use of CACs not necessarily credit event

Greek FinMin Venizelos: Achieved exceptional degree of success in swap. CDS activation not a concern for Greece

German BdB (association of German banks): Greek bnod swap participation rate “good news”

Greece’s private sector committee welcomes PSI – MNSI

German Finance Ministry: High participation rate in Greek debt deal is a big step towards stabilisation

French FinMin: Greek bond swap is good news, avoids default risk

German February CPI (final) +0.7% m/m, +2.3% y/y, as expected

German January trade surplus s.a 14.2 bln vs 13.9 bln surplus in December, better than Reuter’s median forecast of 13.5 bln

French January industrial output +0.3% m/m, weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of +0.5%

Italy January industry output -2.5% m/m, much weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of -0.8%

UK January industrial production -0.4% m/m, -3.8% y/y, weaker than Reuter’s median forecasts +0.3%, -3.1% respectively. Biggest y/y fall since November 2009

EUR/USD down at 1.3225 from early 1.3260, having been as low as 1.3212 so far. Eastern European selling noted after Greek debt swap details hit the wires. Some hedge fund buying noted around the lows.

Slight variance in sell stop levels, either through 1.3190 or 1.3180, take ya pick.

Market now awaits outcome of ISDA deliberations and US jobs report.

USD/JPY effectively unchanged at 81.78. Talk of sell orders just ahead of well-documented 82.00 barrier option interest. Buy order seen clustered 81.30/45.

IIF welcomes conclusion of debt swap, looks to reform program



http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/.../ackermann.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif The Institute of International Finance (IIF), the bank lobby that negotiated Greece's debt swap on behalf of the debt-laden country's private creditors, on Friday welcomed the results of the exchange.

"We welcome the results of the voluntary debt exchange by Greece, announced this morning by the Greek authorities,» the chief negotiators for the IIF said in a statement.

"The debt exchange results, and the associated unprecedented upfront nominal reduction in the privately-held Greek debt, will catalyze the front financial official sector support for Greece's new three-year reform programme,» it added.

'The very strong and positive result provides a major opportunity now for Greece to move ahead with its economic reform program, while strengthening the Euro Area's ability to create an economic environment of stability and growth,' said Dr Josef Ackermann, Chairman of the IIF Board of Directors, and Chairman of the Management Board and the Group Executive Committee, Deutsche Bank AG
[Kathimerini English Edition & Reuters]

Kno's Comments: Now we move on to NFP and the BLS Adjustments. I am going to rename it BS Adjustments.

We live in the times of Alice In Wonderland.

We await setting up of CAC's and then ISDA to declare it was all voluntary.
ekathimerini.com , Friday March 9, 2012 (10:09)

Greek Debt Deal Might Trigger $3 Billion of Default Swaps Under ISDA Rules

Greece’s use of collective action clauses forcing investors to take part in the sovereign restructuring should trigger $3 billion of insurance payouts under rules governing credit-default swap contracts.
The International Swaps & Derivatives Association’s determinations committee meets at 1 p.m. in London today to decide whether the use of CACs is a restructuring credit event which will cause a payout of swaps insuring Greek debt... read more

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...03/2012_432020

Greece activates CACs to reach bond swap target



http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_0803.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Greece has activated collective action clauses (CACs) to ensure the participation in its bond swap was high enough to satisfy the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund that Greek debt is being reduced enough to justify a second bailout.
Participation in Greece’s offer to investors to submit bonds written under Greek law for restructuring, known as PSI, reached 85.8 percent, the government announced on Friday morning.
Bonds written under Greek law amount to 177 billion euros and those holding 152 billion euros in such notes accepted the invitation to undergo a 53.5 percent haircut on their face value.
Greece said that it would activate collective action clauses (CACs), enforcing net present value losses of about 75 percent on investors who refused to participate. This would take the total participation in the bond swap to 95.7 percent.
To reach this percentage, Greece is also including a restructuring of some 20 billion euros held by investors in Greek bonds that are not written under Greek law.
Participation from holders of these bonds only reached 69 percent and Greece has decided to extend until March 23 the deadline for investors to volunteer their bonds for a haircut.
Greece needed a participation rate of between 95 and 100 percent to reduce its debt by more than 100 billion euros and satisfy the eurozone and International Monetary Fund that the haircut had been large enough to allow a new bailout, worth 130 billion euros to go ahead.
“On behalf of the Republic, I wish to express my appreciation to all of our creditors who have supported our ambitious program of reform and adjustment and who have shared the sacrifices of the Greek people in this historic endeavour,” said Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos in a statement. He is due to hold a press conference later on Friday
“With the support of our official sector and private creditors, Greece will continue implementing the measures needed to achieve the fiscal adjustments and structural reforms to which it has committed, and that will return Greece to a path of sustainable growth,” he added.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) said it would also meet on Friday to discuss whether a credit event, which would trigger Credit Default Swaps, has occurred as a result of the bond swap.
ekathimerini.com , Friday March 9, 2012 (08:39)

...and the Mad Hatter has just joined the tea party.

March 9, 2012

Mr. Market: Get It Through Your Head, The PSI DOESN'T Matter

I don't know how many times I have to say this, but I'm saying it again.
Greece and the Euro are finished. The math is impossible. There is no way on earth that this Second Bailout accomplishes anything worthy of note.

The idea that this country will somehow return to economic growth within two years, based on an additional €130billion in bailouts is outright insane.
Remember, Greece already received €110 billion in bailout funds in 2010... and still posted GDP growth of -4.5% in 2010 and -6.8% in 2011. Greece's economy is only €227 billion, so the country failed to post any economic growth and in fact saw its economic collapse accelerate after receiving a bailout equal to 57% of its GDP!!!

And somehow another 130€ billion is going to get this country back to economic growth in two years' time? Greece hasn't experienced any growth in five years.

Again, this entire deal is just stupid. And all it's done is alert Spain and Italy to the fact that handing over fiscal sovereignty and implementing austerity measures in exchange for bailouts is a waste of time.

As I wrote to clients several weeks ago:
Meanwhile, on the other side of EU equation, Spain and Italy must be watching what's happening in Greece and asking themselves whether they want to go through this whole process of negotiating for bailouts via austerity measures.

Both countries have already had a small sampling of the austerity measure medicine. Spain recently implemented a meager 19€ billion in austerity measures while Italy passed 30€ billion in austerity measures in 2011... hardly a drop out of their respective 1.06€ trillion and 1.5€ trillion economies.

Yet, even these tiny moves resulted in protests and riots. One can only imagine what Spanish and Italian politicians are thinking as they witness the widespread civil unrest, country-wide strikes, and economic depression that have occurred in Greece as a result of that country's full commitment to the EU's austerity measure demands.

Spain's official Debt to GDP is only 64%, but its private sector debt is at an astounding 227% of GDP. And the Spanish banking system is leveraged at 19 to 1 (worse than Greece).

Moreover, the country is already experiencing an economic Crisis with an unemployment rate of 20+% and an economy that has been contracting since mid-2011 (in fact Spain's GDP just actually went negative in the first quarter of 2012)...

So... we must consider that it is highly likely the option of simply defaulting is being discussed at the highest levels of the Spanish and Italian government. Should either country decide that austerity measures don't work and it's simply easier to opt for a default, then we are heading into a Crisis that will make 2008 look like a joke.

Well, Spain just woke up and smelled the coffee:
Spain's sovereign thunderclap and the end of Merkel's Europe
As many readers will already have seen, Premier Mariano Rajoy has refused point blank to comply with the austerity demands of the European Commission and the European Council (hijacked by Merkozy).

Taking what he called a "sovereign decision", he simply announced that he intends to ignore the EU deficit target of 4.4pc of GDP for this year, setting his own target of 5.8pc instead (down from 8.5pc in 2011).

In the twenty years or so that I have been following EU affairs closely, I cannot remember such a bold and open act of defiance by any state. Usually such matters are fudged. Countries stretch the line, but do not actually cross it.

With condign symbolism, Mr Rajoy dropped his bombshell in Brussels after the EU summit, without first notifying the commission or fellow EU leaders. Indeed, he seemed to relish the fact that he was tearing up the rule book and disavowing the whole EU machinery of budgetary control.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...erkels-europe/



So... if you still think the Greek PSI matters in any way, you're not thinking past the next 24 hours. Spain has just told the EU to "shove it." Having seen Greece enter a depression and get pushed around by Germany and France for two years, Spain's just told the EU that it's not going that route.

So... if Greece, whose economy is roughly the size of Massachusetts, nearly took down the European banking system... what do you think will happen when Spain decides to it doesn't want to play ball and would rather just default.

Hint: It will be Lehman times ten.

My research has been featured in RollingStone, The New York Post, CNN Money, the Glenn Beck Show, and more. And my clients include analysts and strategists at many of the largest financial firms in the world.

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Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist

I'm still holding. Still not that much confidence it's going south but I guess since I'm already in and in the green, I might as well hang on.

The econ news lineup for the rest of the day.. All times are CET (GMT+1)



In other news, Greece has CAC'd the holdouts and the ISDA is due to decide if it constitutes a credit event and triggers the CDS.

I fully expect them to declare a credit event which makes the prospect of Greece returning to the bond markets bleak, but makes Mr. Market happy.

Not triggering the CDS will kill the CDS market and seriously hurt the bond market overall... nobody wants to buy bonds without insurance.

My 2 cents.

UI Rate Goes From 7.6% to 7.4% and Jobs created NOT 14,000 however is 2,800 so numbers are disappointing.

My call (GUESS) for NFP is 150,000

The Important Part will be any revisions from 243,000 to ?

Canada Loses 2,800 Jobs in February 2012

Stay Tuned...