I observe your reality but live my own. 
- #23,822
- Edited 11:09am Mar 8, 2012 10:57am | Edited 11:09am
So here we are in the key zone. However I am not ready to fade this move as it will probably still go higher. We have reached this zone even before we have the Greek PSI results so it has compelled me to re-think the whole call.
If price pops in to the 33xx zone, then all bets are off. I'll just sit by and watch for now.
Only if we get some miraculous results, we go up - in all other cases down.
Well, I'm maybe be wrong, but I'm kind of stubborn for now
- #23,823
- Mar 8, 2012 11:14am Mar 8, 2012 11:14am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #23,824
- Mar 8, 2012 11:41am Mar 8, 2012 11:41am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #23,825
- Mar 8, 2012 11:48am Mar 8, 2012 11:48am
So here we are in the key zone. However I am not ready to fade this move as it will probably still go higher. We have reached this zone even before we have the Greek PSI results so it has compelled me to re-think the whole call.
If price pops in to the 33xx zone, then all bets are off. I'll just sit by and watch for now.
Attachment
- #23,826
- Mar 8, 2012 1:46pm Mar 8, 2012 1:46pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
The inpenetrable 50sma stood strong once more on the daily next stop 200sma around 1.36 or wherever it may lie
If they don't get 100% participation, and the holdouts don't get paid face value, or the Greeks implement the CAC, then that triggers a credit event = disorderly default = probable CDS triggers.
Should be interesting.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #23,828
- Mar 8, 2012 2:16pm Mar 8, 2012 2:16pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #23,829
- Mar 8, 2012 2:24pm Mar 8, 2012 2:24pm
We can take today's rally as getting to the highest price to take a big sell position or else expectations are for a positive outcome!
I bet 100 euro that it'll be delayed!
Good night - I'm not going to hang here picking my nose
- #23,830
- Mar 8, 2012 2:32pm Mar 8, 2012 2:32pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
Reuters announced that results will be released 6:00 GMT tomorrow morning.
Good night - I'm not going to hang here picking my nose
- #23,832
- Mar 8, 2012 2:43pm Mar 8, 2012 2:43pm
- | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,426 Posts
Hi folks,
I'm back to my trading desk. Had a good day overall. Entered Long yesterday @ 1.3146 and reloaded at 1.318. Covered the latter @ 1.323 for +50 and closed the first trade @ 1.325: +104 for the second. Not bragging, but happy to share since I rarely experience that.
Now like most of you, i was hoping to be able to fade this upmove but it's not happening.
So I have been mulling over today's move with the view to plan my next setup (dont want to jump the gun and loose any hard earned pips). I also wanted to know why we did not reach 1.3075 or 1.3054 before a rebound.
So I came up with the following chart on daily. As you can see there may be a H&S pattern forming... (within a down trend - channel between red lines, which is also within another downtrend channel but you cant see that on that chart).
For as long as 1.332 holds (1.333 is a stronger res but then it's not a H&S, is it?) we could have more downside.
May be further continuation north overnight and NFP bringing the whole thing down? (since Bearish move is still preferred R:R)
So, I'm wondering how to plan this (given that i won't Long at this level without confirmation or short now as we've broken 1.328 without greeks news)
Option 1: wait for 1.332 to be reached and sell upon rejection
Option 2: Sell on break of neckline (1.312?)
Option 3: wait for break of 1.332 - 1.333 and buy on retrace
Let me know if this makes sense to you.
I'm back to my trading desk. Had a good day overall. Entered Long yesterday @ 1.3146 and reloaded at 1.318. Covered the latter @ 1.323 for +50 and closed the first trade @ 1.325: +104 for the second. Not bragging, but happy to share since I rarely experience that.
Now like most of you, i was hoping to be able to fade this upmove but it's not happening.
So I have been mulling over today's move with the view to plan my next setup (dont want to jump the gun and loose any hard earned pips). I also wanted to know why we did not reach 1.3075 or 1.3054 before a rebound.
So I came up with the following chart on daily. As you can see there may be a H&S pattern forming... (within a down trend - channel between red lines, which is also within another downtrend channel but you cant see that on that chart).
For as long as 1.332 holds (1.333 is a stronger res but then it's not a H&S, is it?) we could have more downside.
May be further continuation north overnight and NFP bringing the whole thing down? (since Bearish move is still preferred R:R)
So, I'm wondering how to plan this (given that i won't Long at this level without confirmation or short now as we've broken 1.328 without greeks news)
Option 1: wait for 1.332 to be reached and sell upon rejection
Option 2: Sell on break of neckline (1.312?)
Option 3: wait for break of 1.332 - 1.333 and buy on retrace
Let me know if this makes sense to you.
- #23,833
- Mar 8, 2012 2:50pm Mar 8, 2012 2:50pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi folks,
I'm back to my trading desk. Had a good day overall. Entered Long yesterday @ 1.3146 and reloaded at 1.318. Covered the latter @ 1.323 for +50 and closed the first trade @ 1.325: +104 for the second. Not bragging, but happy to share since I rarely experience that.
Now like most of you, i was hoping to be able to fade this upmove but it's not happening.
So I have been mulling over today's move with the view to plan my next setup (dont want to jump the gun and loose any hard earned pips). I also wanted to know why we did...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #23,834
- Mar 8, 2012 2:50pm Mar 8, 2012 2:50pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #23,835
- Mar 8, 2012 2:55pm Mar 8, 2012 2:55pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Talk of 90% participation rate but could e the usual shite who knows.. All I know is I'll stay flat if I miss it then so be it! Think I'll watch some porn rather than pick my nose
That's all the market needed to know. Unless it is exactly 100%, any number between and including 75% and 99% has the same effect.
Now they have to decide on CACing the rest. That will probably take a while to decide.
The official number will be released at 0600 GMT tomorrow and then the EU FinMins are holding a conference call at 1300 GMT to discuss what to do next.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #23,836
- Mar 8, 2012 3:04pm Mar 8, 2012 3:04pm
- | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,426 Posts
haha just back from work. didn't get a chance to read your posts yet but glad to know we r on the same page.
I had 1.3389 as ultimate top but honestly wasn't expecting to reach it.
Just can't touch this atm so I'll wait and see. Too many times I've lost my hard earned pips by trying to double guess the market.
Green pips to yo m8!
I had 1.3389 as ultimate top but honestly wasn't expecting to reach it.
Just can't touch this atm so I'll wait and see. Too many times I've lost my hard earned pips by trying to double guess the market.
Green pips to yo m8!
I see you've been reading my mind. Stop it... it freaks me out
- #23,837
- Mar 8, 2012 3:10pm Mar 8, 2012 3:10pm
- | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,426 Posts
I'll bet (way to speak) we won't have the full picture before monday. I reckon NFP change will have a greater impact tomorrow.
I'll try to wake up and see how the market will react @ 6am GMT anyway
until then take care all
I'll try to wake up and see how the market will react @ 6am GMT anyway
until then take care all
Now they have to decide on CACing the rest. That will probably take a while to decide.
The official number will be released at 0600 GMT tomorrow and then the EU FinMins are holding a conference call at 1300 GMT to discuss what to do next.
- #23,838
- Mar 8, 2012 3:15pm Mar 8, 2012 3:15pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #23,839
- Mar 8, 2012 3:20pm Mar 8, 2012 3:20pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
...I reckon NFP change will have a greater impact tomorrow...
...Unless the result is 100%, the next market moving event will be NFP, and not some spruced up press release from the Greek government...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #23,840
- Mar 8, 2012 3:21pm Mar 8, 2012 3:21pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Well, I expect positive sentiment wont survive tomorrows NY session and hope I will manage to hop in the submarine before weekend.
T
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it