EurAnalysis

I'm not PT or Kno but you're correct. If the Fed raises rates this is a contraction policy to prevent inflation thus reducing the amount of dollars in circulation. This has a direct effect on EUR/US bearish sentiment. As investors rely on the dollar as a safe haven (strengthening the dollar), risky securities are averted (weakening the euro)..

Thanks for that mate

The FED are keeping the rates low until 2013?

I have to admit that I don't understand why are you shorting: scalping or swinging or thinking ina longer term??

You only have to be you. We all see things in a unique way and your views are as important as mine. Thanks.

We have one solid TL holding this.

First of all my only objective is to make money. I am not stuck on any terminology.

After I saw the reaction to FOMC and seeing EUR/USD behaving the way it did and being fairly confident it would not move up especially with Europe closed, My Trade Plan was to Short One Position of EUR/USD risking $800 US of capital on an account with $87,320.20 in it. My risk was small and I stated my position.

I have already closed my position and my net gain is $113.00 US on capital used of $800 US

I just need to do that 10 times a day to earn $1000 a day. We all use a method that suits our personality and results.

I usually trade within the day using good entry, proper stop loss, a good Trade Plan and I am not greedy and know when to take profits.

I hope that helped you understand. I closed ast 1.30594 at 14:32 PM EST

Gold is holding above $1600 and Oil is up. EUR/JPY is just barely above 100.00 and if it falls below EUR/USD will move with it.

We have an EVENT RISK POlitical tonight with Iowa voting. I want to be all in cash.

TaKE CARE.

claro, clarito

gracias

Nice, I got my short in at 1.3068 somewhere around 1:50pm EST. Overbought in all time frames up to the 4 hr so it needs some reprive and should fall back down. Looking to see if it can break below 1.30 ...

You're so right! Traders dont understand the profits in small moves with large lot holdings. It's a margins game. You can make a significant amount of money from small moves. You're a savvy trader my friend

I do this occasionally. You have to be exact with your timing with a tight stop if you have large lot sizes.

or carry 2 lots from 3188 to 2870 for ~$6400. not bad

point being that a well rounded trader might have a sub account for longer term positions and another sub account for scalping action when market elasticity can be use to one's advantage.

Not everithing is black in eu land. Arbeitslosigkeit (unemployment) auf niedrigstem Stand seit 20 Jahren

You're correct, but also if you have a nice margin to trade on you can go under water a bit. I personally don't like to go under more than 15 pips, but like you said it's based on timing. The key to this business is analysis, timing, and margins!

I believe infrequent (but highly probable) lot size trades is a great style. It does not matter how far the movement goes, as long as it moves in that direction. As said, timing is key.

Yes my friend, I second that notion! That's why I love this business. A witty trader can be wrong and still be right! No business like it

Good timing = good chart reading.

http://www.financialsense.com/print/...se-white-paper

I strongly recommend that everyone read the article that I just linked here. The fallout has not even started and will have a major effect on the markets.

Snippet:

By James Koutoulas
Created 3 Jan 2012


Co-authored by John L. Roe
Purpose:
This white paper is intended to offer a plain language understanding of the backgrounds and impacts of the MF Global bankruptcy for non-financial professionals. It was originally published November 10, 2011 and was last updated December 1, 2011.

Summary:
The failure of MF Global has wide ranging consequences for the American economy. Its bankruptcy is being handled in a manner that is making these consequences many magnitudes worse than necessary. The freezing of customer segregated funds is having a chilling effect on global financial markets and also has a less obvious but significant impact on the day-to-day operations of farmers, mining operators, ranchers, and other commodity consumers and producers, as well as the portfolios of pension funds and retirees alike. The failure of MF Global directly contributed to the loss of more than 2,800 jobs and the unnecessarily slow speed of this bankruptcy process will cause the loss of even more jobs.

Beyond the obvious peril this poses to the fragile US economic recovery, the long-term implications of the bankruptcy and its fallout may spell the end of the United States as a viable jurisdiction for commodity trading. If commodity customers can no longer trust that funds they tender to brokers in the US will be held segregated and in fact may be tied up for months and years in a bankruptcy, commodity producers and consumers will seek alternative means to hedge their exposure to commodity prices.

This will include seeking alternative trading jurisdictions (perhaps in Asia and Europe) and an increased use of over-the counter derivatives, increasing counterparty credit risk. The end result will be that commodity hedgers will find it more expensive and difficult to hedge their price risk and eventually it will yield inflation in end-user prices for consumer goods and services. Congress has several options to mitigate these consequences.

About the Authors:
This white paper was co-authored by the founders of the Commodity Customer Coalition ("CCC"), John L. Roe and James Koutoulas, Esq. They formed the CCC in the days immediately following the October 31st bankruptcy filing of MF Global after it became clear that every entity which purported to protect and advocate for commodity customers failed to do so. The group represents more than 7,000 commodity customer accounts of MF Global and maintains a strong presence in the bankruptcy court and media on behalf of its membership. For more information on the CCC, please reference our media kit or visit our website (http://goo.gl/dmswn [1]).

Mr. Roe is a partner with BTR Trading Group, a guaranteed introducing broker with almost 1,000 customer accounts at MF Global. He also heads the commodity trading advisory firm Roe Capital Management. Mr. Koutoulas is an attorney and the CEO of commodity trading advisory firm Typhon Capital Management, which has more than $55 million dollars of its customers' assets frozen at MF Global.

What was MF Global?
MF Global, Inc. was a commodities and securities brokerage firm dealing primarily in commodity contracts responsible for holding clients’ cash and collateral.

Who Are MF Global Clients?
Customers of MF Global represent a cross-section of people across America and the world, from farmers and ranchers who hedge their crops and herds, to oil producers and miners who use futures to lock-in prices and take delivery of physical commodities, to retirees and pension funds who invest in futures to diversify their portfolios. They can be divided into two basic groups: hedgers and speculators. An example of a hedger would be a farmer who has crops in the field who sells futures in commodity markets so he can lock in prices for his future yields today. Otherwise he would be exposed to the risk of volatile price swings in commodities. An example of a corporate hedger would be a company like Coca-Cola who generates revenue in foreign markets. It does not want to lose money when it repatriates revenue earned in foreign currency. It has to be able to forecast future expenses and profits accurately in the currency of its domicile and hedge that currency price risk in futures markets accordingly. These commodity producers (farmers) and consumers (companies like Coca-Cola) are commonly referred to as hedgers as they use futures markets to offset their price risk in producing or the need to consume a given commodity.

Speculators, like retirees, pension funds and individual traders, add volume and liquidity to these markets. These traders access commodity markets in a variety of ways, either directly or through a broker or commodity trading advisor. Many seek commodities as a means of diversifying their portfolio, while others trade as a means of earning a living. Speculation allows for better, more efficient pricing of commodities and creates stability for prices.

Feedback is most welcome. Be Aware and watch the ongoing developements.

That's what it all boils down too.. In this day in age, algorithms and programs control the markets. Fundies play a significant role in moving price, but charts control sentiment. Price can spike off a news report on smaller charts, but on a daily chart it's business as usual. Charts keep traders abreast on what happened in the past. Very very critical to success..

Wow! That's a lil scary... MF had that much control over the commodities market. It makes a lot of since, but something will be done to prevent the chaos. I'll keep my eye's on it

John Embry is at the top of the list for knowledge and experience. He was part of the system for many years with the Royal Bank of Canada. He left them many years ago to work with Eric Sprott.

Here is the link to his position on Gold !!!

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ver_Again.html

Snippet:

John Embry continues:



“When gold broke through $1,000, I said it would never trade below $1,000 again and it hasn’t. I now think that, unless we have a complete and total financial collapse in the world, I would be surprised if gold ever traded below $1,500 ever again.



It’s the beginning of the new year and there seems to be a burst of optimism in the air and it’s being reflected in markets. Virtually everything is trading higher today. Things will shake themselves out over the next few months and I continue to think that, by far, the safest place to be is in the precious metals. Gold and silver are on the move today and certainly the metals looked sold out to end 2011. Everybody that could sell did sell.



I had an amazing conversation this morning with a long-time friend of mine, who’s always been gold friendly, and he said, ‘I’ve been reading a lot on the weekend and I got the impression gold is going to be weak in the next few months.’ He asked, ‘Should I sell half of my gold position with the idea of buying it back in the third quarter?’



I said, ‘Are you out of your mind? I don’t know what you were reading, but I would be very surprised, unless the whole world melts down, if gold would be weak at all in the next six months. In fact I would say it’s going to go up $400 or $500 an ounce in the next six months.’ But that’s the kind of sentiment that’s out there and this was from a guy who has been a player in gold for years.



I really do believe that when you get the best and brightest this discouraged, and they can’t see through the gloom, you’ve probably bottomed....