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Jim Sinclair Speaks Out For All Of Us...

Negativity In Gold Reaches Epic Levels


January 3, 2012, at 3:28 pm

by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |




Dear Extended Family,
The incoming negativity on gold last week reached epic levels. Friends of mine and gold for more than 40 years were looking for a towel to throw into the gold ring. When fear overtakes your intellect and you call, it is like molten magma spewing out of the phone or email.

If I dared to remind the caller that nothing has changed except the algorithms and then only for the short period of time I made the caller angry. I will admit anger is better than total depression but there is no necessity for either.

The advent of splinter parties to challenge the staid old Democrats and Republicans has put Washington into a total freeze frame. There is no mandate for anything, but don’t rock the boat. All that can get done there is nothing whatsoever.

All the “can kicking” hopes for a strong economic recovery to heal the can bouncing damage have not and will not materialize. The Fed will not let the euro fail. Already the US Fed has provided the swap lines (loan mechanisms) to the ECB (a beard) to loan the Euro banks the liquidity they lost when the Greek bonds were cut 50% (declared not a default by the Board of Appointed Wizards on CDSs from the banks who wrote the useless bond insurance who are the official shot callers on the default word).

You will never hear any of the "D" words, be that default or deflation. You will hear "rescheduling" which is a default whereby the credit default swap does not have to function so the worthless insurance is camouflaged.

Arab spring is turning out to be the disaster we knew it was. Remember all the cheering on financial TV as Egypt imploded? Spontaneous outbreaks of democracy were simply a really dumb reaction.

Some people can only be ruled by strongmen. It was good the strongmen were all on the payroll of the West. The West fired the strongmen into holes in the ground with candy bars, and flood pipes with unused gold .45cal pistols. Now the true believers are taking over. Arab Spring will be seen as the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood as the most influential replacement.

Energy is in as much trouble from the Arab Spring as the Strait of Hormuz is from Iran. Yes, the Wunderkinds took advantage of the gold fear circumstances, but in terms of gold related items have overstated their accomplishments.

When you bully something to go your way you must not assume you are a genius and called the direction. You made it happen, and it will gobble you up the minute you are out of aces. Those gold shares and gold bullion holders that maintained reason over emotion are committed people that no squirt is going to force out of their positions to benefit worthless puts and large new very low priced shorts. At times old fashioned retail can have more staying power than hedge funds.

Please make note:

Gold will bounce off $2100 and react. Try to keep an even course as Alf is right. Gold has a better chance of seeing $4500 than $1400.
Throw away your razor blade kits provided by famous but mercurial gold commentators who have no mindset whatsoever other than to sell subscriptions or seminars.

Sincerely,

Jim

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/...-for-2012.html

PLEASE READ ME AND LEARN THE TRUTH !!!

Snippet:

Vigilante's Year in Review »

Tuesday
Jan03 2012
The Dollar Vigilante's Outlook for 2012

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/unive...ransparent.pngTuesday, January 3, 2012 at 10:15AM

“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft then by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them but protect them against you....you may know that your society is doomed” Ayn Rand

It’s been 54 full revolutions since Ayn Rand wrote Atlas Shrugged – from whence the above quote comes. And, the evils that she felt were responsible for society’s downfall in the 1950s have only grown stronger.

In fact, the military industrial complex was only gaining critical mass at the time. It had not yet become the murderous behemoth that has grown into a parasitic bureaucracy. Even the dollar was still linked to a makeshift gold standard under Bretton Woods – a system under which the US government pretended its currency was still gold redeemable, even though it had been a quarter of a century since American tax slaves (citizens) were last allowed to use gold as money.

Atlas Shrugged may have been a fictional account of what Rand saw in the real world around her through the lens of objectivism but the evils were real enough. We talk about those evils regularly here at The Dollar Vigilante (TDV) and will do so more below.

Before that, being a new calendar year it always seems like a good time to reflect on the year past and question and test your world outlook based on what you've learned and what has occurred in the last twelve months. And so we will do just that.

Our theme has remained the same for years, even though the TDV newsletter was only launched a little less than two years ago. TDV Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos, has been recommending gold and gold stocks since 2000 based on our theme and I've been buying gold and gold stocks since I discovered Austrian economics in 2004.

THE DOLLAR VIGILANTE THEME

Here is the overarching theme that we follow at TDV.
All government involvement in the economy has been shown to be detrimental to progress. The calculation problem defined by Ludwig von Mises over six decades ago and the pretense of knowledge problem cited by Hayek in his 1974 Nobel Prize winning speech aptly demonstrate that central planners cannot calculate; and that they do cannot possibly appreciate all the information contained in the price of a single good. The central planners are thus unaccountable, alienated from the feedback of a marketplace, and can’t calculate - not to mention the outright violence and theft involved in taxation and wealth redistribution.

Even Karl Marx knew interventionism would undermine free market capitalism, and that interventionism was, as Ludwig von Mises wrote, “a method for the transformation of capitalism into socialism by a series of successive steps.” Ludwig von Mises of course saw the “essence” of interventionism as but a self-defeating policy where the “individual measures that it applies do not achieve the results sought”, and can only take “from one group to give to another.”

And as Robert Higgs has described in the “ratchet effect,” interventionism begets more interventionism.

Today this interventionism is driven by neo-liberal progressives and justified by the democratic ideal.

The United States' problems began in the progressive era with the abandonment of classical liberalism and its laissez faire economic policy in the late 19th century, and that its fate was sealed in the revolution of 1913 with the advent of the Federal Reserve System, the Income Tax Act and other ambitious goals of the progressive era leaders…including the 17th amendment which increased the scope of the central government further, and it emboldened the “democratic principle”.






All Comments And Points Of View Are Welcome And Appreciated...

This is a very important development if it holds. Trust me on that. The system does NOT want Ron Paul since he wants the FED gone and an Audit Done...

Fascinating night and New Hampshire next week on the 10Th of January and Donald Trump is watching and thinking about his move.

Gold broke below $1600 and EUR/JPY just over 100.00 at 100.03

USD/JPY strong at 76.65 and it gets stronger as US Dollar Index goes down. That is another correlation for you to note.

Anyone care to comment ?

Do We Have Any Good Charts To Look At ?

How is everyone ? Where is PipTrapper ?

EUR/USD holding at 1.3047 and I still see it heading towards 1.3000 however Dow and ADP tomorrow might have a big effect. We will see what Europe does...

Hi guys .i appear approx same time as yesterday. well a/u is being a bit kinder to me today. i have taken approx 20 pips but managed to compound this 4 times ( blocks of 5) so in effect i got 80 pips after spread etc. my main trade is still looking for 40 pips. i have not been around here too often as i guess it was affecting my mind regarding trading.It is good to hear peoples view points on trading and more so regarding new trading methods. This time i have spent with you i have realised and have been studying the effects of fundamentals and i reckon it is seriously the way forward. happy trading

I am a fundamental trader who uses technicals for good entry and exit.

I use the Oanda Charts and FXCM UK charts. I mainly trade off the 15 minute chart and the 5 minute chart.

I would appreciate some suggestions or comments on my setup.

I use the default parameters that Oanda and FXCM UK have.

On Top I use Bollinger Band, EMA and Parobolic Sar with Fractionals.

Below I use MACD and I color code it Red and Green.

I use RSI and Awesome Indicator to show me volume.

Any suggestions to improve my technical set up would be appreciated.

Thanks

No truer words have been spoken. The US is becoming nothing more than a plutocratic police state.

we had an inside bar on the 4 hour e/u and this is a good little thing to trade so i guess it'll drop.

Of course the answer is yes. In my own words here is what every winning trader needs to have.

First of all before everything else you need to have the interest and desire to trade forex. Then you need to have the time and energy to invest in learning the tools of your trade.

Then you require a sound mind and common sense and good learning skills.

Learning how to deal with your fears, your greed and your ego is next in my list.

The TRADING is the easy part.

You need to know what moves the markets and the various asset classes. You need to understand various correlations.

You need to have a Trade Plan and that includes having the discipline not to trade unless the odds are on your side.

You need to trade with proper capital and use proper Risk Management or Money Management skills.

You need trading experience and you should stick to at the most three currencies. That is just for starters.

Do you still want to be a currency trader ?

95% of all currency trader's are known to lose !!!

Just trading from the technical side and or the price action side does not give you any edge and probably teaches you bad habits in my trading experience.

Have a positive mental attitude and an open mind and know that what you do not know you can learn if you want to.

All feedback welcome...

No question or comment is stupid or not appreciated here.

This applies to all of you that are online now and care to post something. Just a suggestion.


45 Traders Viewing This Thread (10 are members) Invisiblehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif, redteamgohttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif, Hbee, afeef, sneaky_russian, mystic, leafarct,

knoholygrail, billytthttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/6kt.gif, Invisiblehttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif, redteamgohttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif, Hbee, afeef, sneaky_russian, mystic, leafarct,

You need to know what moves the markets and the various asset classes.

my friend you seem to be a sincere person regarding trading and your posts are welcoming to traders who are on the learning curve. If ever i have to give advice to someone it would be LEARN WHAT MOVES MARKETS ie FUNDAMENTALS or if like me make a system and stick with it

ok, ok .... I outed ...

Haha, caught red handed! I have been following this thread for a while, I tried posting once but I believe there are some requirements before posts can be submitted?

I've been an on and off trader for a couple years now, this year being my first consistent trading year with a micro lot. Still learning my ways about discipline in taking trades, as I seem to make some good trades yet tend to try and go with the flow a bit too much, and so I end up riding the flow up as well as down... gotta break the habit.

My new year's resolution was to post more often share my view and perspective and interact with the traders i see and read everyday...including you piptrader, pipkiller, aaronward, bumpataria and others... I consider my self a 'newbie' although ive been self teaching and studinying foreign exchange for about 5yrs. Ive busted 2 accounts and about 4 months ago i opened another and this is the longest ive stayed afloat. I agree with all Points you have made and encourage everyone that has ever 'busted' an account to stay with it and keep trying. I look foward to 2012 and am very excited about the future. Green pips to everyone and Happy New years!

The most IMPORTANT system is yourself. I will reproduce a post I did a few days ago from another thread on Forex Factory. Everyone here should read it vety carefully since the odds are good that it describes most of you.

I will find it shortly and repost it.

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading
Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on market’s “wrong behaviour”, which didn’t comply with the trader’s brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don’t think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday’s situation from today’s point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis at allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influence by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can’t even come near those result when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in as state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision – reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader’s position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyse daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader’s wilful thinking. In this case, treaders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sire they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market’s “wrong behaviour” not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the “wrong behaviour” or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills – specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, treaders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer’s spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market “noise”. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficiently psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders’ impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders’ fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank casher counting other people’s money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people’s money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because there situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders’ ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX marker are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma – the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.
__________________
Good Money Management (MM) is the key factor to success.

My ultimate Bias on E/U is short but im long currently as i feel this is a retracement. the Daily Trendline (as shown in red line on attachment) has been broke and i expect a 3 wave correction to 1.33 (as it being a pychological number) although i will be protecting profits and watching price action around 1.32/1.325

The upper trendline is what i believe will cap this rally. Just my view good luck to all

i should of mentioned about the ib on a/u thats a nice little earner. i was on it before that though.

I welcome your input. Thank You.

After You Post 10 Posts your posts do not need to be reviewed.

Nice to see you post. Thank you for introducing yourself. Our Leader will welcome you. That is PipTrapper. He is getting some rest now before the Europe open.

Yes A/U is a good pair to trade during the Asian session.