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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #41
  • Sep 26, 2011 8:02pm Sep 26, 2011 8:02pm
Quoting foto
The idea is that a bailout would have been factored into institutional investors already. They do not place money based upon forexfactory posts.


Thanks foto, best laugh I've had today.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #42
  • Sep 26, 2011 11:03pm Sep 26, 2011 11:03pm
this is a re-post from my trendline thread
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #43
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:32am Sep 27, 2011 1:32am
Good morning (at least where I am).

This is my 1H chart. As you can see there is a lot of opportunities that could be traded today.

I'll be looking for how PA reacts to upper (2) and lower (2) trend lines which also forms a nice wedge (1).

I'll also be looking at PA around the white horisontal lines for possible entries.

Good trading to you all
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  • #44
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:35am Sep 27, 2011 1:35am
Quoting walb99
this is a re-post from my trendline thread
Hi walb99!

I'll be looking into that thread. I'm not all that comfortable in drawing trendlines yet.
  • #45
  • Sep 27, 2011 3:05am Sep 27, 2011 3:05am
Good morning everybody.

It seems today will be an interesting news day as we start to get contemplated reactions to the proposed expansion of the EFSF to €2 Trillion.
We are also starting to see some news about whether or not Greece can pull off its austerity measures.
I think it all looks bleak but would be interested in what you have to say also.

So far this is what we are seeing:

Spain's Salgado says plans to extend EFSF to EUR 2trl not on table

Former IMF chief economist says Greece will "massively" default

Bankruptcy threat to Greece as euro ministers delay vital €8bn

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #46
  • Sep 27, 2011 3:11am Sep 27, 2011 3:11am
So here is an update of my H1 chart.
It seems that the Euro is struggling to gain the ground we wish it to in order to reach our target for a short opportunity at the 1.3680 area.
This morning it managed to pierce the 1.3550 area that it could not manage yesterday and Friday. However the price was once again aggressively rejected, albeit a little higher at 1.3570
I think we still have a good chance of managing a break today seeing as the european equity markets opened higher, although that could turn around quickly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 31 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #47
  • Sep 27, 2011 3:29am Sep 27, 2011 3:29am
All equity indices are up.
Commodities are up.
Gold is up.
USD is up.

All looks good, but Euro is falling.

Hmmmmm. That's all I'm going to say as I do not want to draw any conclusions from this. Just a heads up to keep an eye out.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #48
  • Sep 27, 2011 4:22am Sep 27, 2011 4:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
All equity indices are up.
Commodities are up.
Gold is up.
USD is up.

All looks good, but Euro is falling.

Hmmmmm. That's all I'm going to say as I do not want to draw any conclusions from this. Just a heads up to keep an eye out.
if eu entered a longterm bearish trend, a stronger retracement up to 37xx or even 40xx is possible any time

for today: more bearish momentum only possible below 35xx
regards
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #49
  • Sep 27, 2011 4:39am Sep 27, 2011 4:39am
Ok, So no I'm in a trade.
b 1.3510

Reason for trade
M5 rejection (three inside up) of 1.3480
M15 bullish engulfing
M30 bullish engulfing
H1 not completed yet but look like we will see a bullish engulfing there too (but you never know)

So now I just have to wait to see what happens.
Will cut if i see 1H hesitation.
  • #50
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:11am Sep 27, 2011 5:11am
Quoting TheSwede
Ok, So no I'm in a trade.
b 1.3510

Reason for trade
M5 rejection (three inside up) of 1.3480
M15 bullish engulfing
M30 bullish engulfing
H1 not completed yet but look like we will see a bullish engulfing there too (but you never know)

So now I just have to wait to see what happens.
Will cut if i see 1H hesitation.
you're in the money now. Or did you bail out?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #51
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:34am Sep 27, 2011 5:34am
VIX still at monthly highs
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:53am Sep 27, 2011 5:53am
bullish candle on the 12h atm, but the main trend is down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #53
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:00am Sep 27, 2011 6:00am
Still in it... looks like another green candle on H1...
I'm trying not to close the trade until TP or I get A rejection pattern.
Lets see if we continue up...
SL now BE

Quoting PipTrapper
you're in the money now. Or did you bail out?
  • #54
  • Edited 6:14am Sep 27, 2011 6:10am | Edited 6:14am
Stoped out at +15 Calling it a day. History will tell if i choked the trade (edit: looks like I did..) or not... Spiked down.

Maybe not the best result of a trade but I took it on good PA signals... Which is all you can do.

Quoting TheSwede
Still in it... looks like another green candle on H1...
I'm trying not to close the trade until TP or I get A rejection pattern.
Lets see if we continue up...
SL now BE
  • #55
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:15am Sep 27, 2011 6:15am
Quoting TheSwede
Stoped out at +15 Calling it a day. History will tell if i choked the trade or not... Spiked down.

Maybe not the best result of a trade but I took it on good PA signals... Which is all you can do.
The way the market is moving today looks like a calm before a storm and you don't want to be on the wrong side of that.
I think there is still lots of upside potential but with what's going on today, I am staying out as I like to play safe in times like these.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:21am Sep 27, 2011 6:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
The way the market is moving today looks like a calm before a storm and you don't want to be on the wrong side of that.
I think there is still lots of upside potential but with what's going on today, I am staying out as I like to play safe in times like these.
Mind you, On confirmation, I still plan on taking a short at the 1.3660/1.3680 area on (or if possible, slightly above) the falling channel resistance on H1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 31 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #57
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:23am Sep 27, 2011 6:23am
obviously the trendline will not be broken in the short term, time to wait for the trend to come back
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #58
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:25am Sep 27, 2011 6:25am
You're right, but I get stopped out to often and after that the trade moves to by TP like I'm pretty sure it will now. Well go back and work and build confidence is the way to go I guess. Just have to think that today the cup was filled in half not half empty!!!

Saw that your from Toronto cant help to mention that I went to the same middle school as Mats Sundin...

Quoting PipTrapper
The way the market is moving today looks like a calm before a storm and you don't want to be on the wrong side of that.
I think there is still lots of upside potential but with what's going on today, I am staying out as I like to play safe in times like these.
  • #59
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:38am Sep 27, 2011 6:38am
sp500 looks very bullish and if this will become true and if the eu wants to follow, there could be a major move above 40xx in the cards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #60
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:43am Sep 27, 2011 6:43am
Quoting TheSwede
You're right, but I get stopped out to often and after that the trade moves to by TP like I'm pretty sure it will now. Well go back and work and build confidence is the way to go I guess. Just have to think that today the cup was filled in half not half empty!!!...
Yes. Another method I like is to find a good strong trend line and as long as I do not see a change in sentiment and that the volatility is medium to low, I enter right at (or on a pierce of) the line for a reversal in the direction of the trend. However, I don't do counter trend. I feel there are so many opportunities every day that I can afford to be choosy. Yes you will have some losing trades. You always will. However, the name of the game is not to win every time, but to win more than you lose.

Quoting TheSwede
Saw that your from Toronto cant help to mention that I went to the same middle school as Mats Sundin...
Mats Sundin will be able to tell you what makes a winner. Winners know how to take a loss. It is the losers that don't
I am not a huge hockey fan but I used to be an avid follower whenever the Maple Leafs made it to the playoffs.
It's been about 2 years now since he retired. I wonder what he is up to these days. Think he's trading Forex? LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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