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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
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EurAnalysis

Quoting bumapatria
hey piptrapper!

nice thread u got going here

for the pair, im seeing bearish return definitely,
those euro bulls were just dudes living on some tv lie of the exageratted 'safety' that investing in eurozone is not a problem lol.

I say keep our shorts.
What we have in the equity markets right now is seller exhaustion, bargain hunters and window dressers. The market needs to inhale before it dives deeper.
If it was anything more than that, we would already see the SP500 at 1250-1300
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Hello PipTrapper and everyone else,

I've decided to join the thread since I have been watching it from the start .

I am as bearish on EURUSD as most of people are (or at least I hope so ), expecting 1.25 to be reached (at least) before any attempts of breaking this nice downtrend. However, how do you think - is there a chance that we will resume before the end of the week?

Right now I am kinda lost and have no clue what may happen till Monday

I guess things will stay "undecided" with EURUSD and commodities consolidating approximately where whey are - maybe with a slight bounce up (in case of EUR - to the levels mentioned by PT). But right now I am exiting all positions that aren't currently loosing and setting TP very close to the entry points for these, which remain below them, exiting market slowly and anticipating some bearish movements next week.

And, finally, do you think commodities will continue to follow EUR in it's downtrend, or it was just a temporary effect of stenghtening dollar ?
Quoting Blobik
...how do you think - is there a chance that we will resume before the end of the week?

Right now I am kinda lost and have no clue what may happen till Monday

/////

And, finally, do you think commodities will continue to follow EUR in it's downtrend, or it was just a temporary effect of stenghtening dollar ?
Hi Blobik and thank you for joining us here at Urinalysis.. err I mean EurAnalysis

Later today I will be posting an update on where I feel things are currently standing and where I believe they will head by Friday. I just need some more time to complete my analysis.

In the meantime, if you haven't already done so, I encourage you to once again read this thread from the beginning paying close attention to post# 2 as that pretty well pre-tells the story that has unfolded so far. This means we are still on track based on my original long term analysis.

Again Welcome. It is great to have you here.
Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
what will be the likely impact of Bernanke speech on eur/usd??
Quoting Harpe Eagle
what will be the likely impact of Bernanke speech on eur/usd??
Probably little to none unless he somehow lets it slip that the Fed will ease more, but that's far fetched. Bernanke's speech tonight is more to do with emerging markets and not on Fed policy. I don't know why it's a red item in the event calendar.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Need to learns something more today
When you talk about monthly and quarterly adjustments what do you mean then? Adjustments of what?? Holdings in funds? re-balancing?
And why does it make EUR/USD bullish?

Quoting PipTrapper
The bull will soon run out of steam. Month and quarter end adjustments causing an equity bounce. Some EZ hope helping it along. Once the illusion of positive outlook is smashed, the bears will be back in control.

I haven't shorted yet because I believe we will see the 1.37 handle before the next move down. We may even see 1.3720/50 area but I do not see it going any further at this point. All depends on market timing.

We shall see.

I remain nimble.
Quoting PipTrapper
The bull will soon run out of steam. Month and quarter end adjustments causing an equity bounce. Some EZ hope helping it along. Once the illusion of positive outlook is smashed, the bears will be back in control.

I haven't shorted yet because I believe we will see the 1.37 handle before the next move down. We may even see 1.3720/50 area but I do not see it going any further at this point. All depends on market timing.

We shall see.

I remain nimble.
agree, atm market is factoring in that Merkel will get majority on ESFS voting tomorrow
this means: bull is pushing the eu up in retracement for a while
my view: bear could take over again around 39xx-40xx
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
Quoting TheSwede
...When you talk about monthly and quarterly adjustments what do you mean then? Adjustments of what?? Holdings in funds? re-balancing?
All of the above

Quoting TheSwede
...And why does it make EUR/USD bullish?
The USD is currently inversely correlated to the equity markets due to its current semi safe haven status (after the JPY), plus the Euro is considered a risk currency. Therefore the eur/usd, in absence of any divergent fundamentals which are euro negative, will rise with the equity markets.

ADD H1 charts of EUR/USD and SP500. See the correlation?
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
I know I trade shorter time frames than most of you here. I'm sorry for not posting them in real time but there are several reasons for that.
1. I'm not a good trader (yet). I don't want people to follow my calls, however I hope they and I can learn from them by me posting them afterwards.
2. I don't have time to post in real time.
3. ...

Yesterday I took a (second) long trade from a pullback.

See M15 chart.
Reason for taking trade.
Pullback after running stops. No rejection pattern (except on M5). We just had a nice slow runback. The we got some nive patterns on M5 repeated Hammers (3) M15 Hammer above my SR 2 hammers on M30.

Entrypoint 1.35667
SL If close below 2/3 of the Momentum bar (check marked).
TP 1.36011
Result 34.4 PIPS

Reason for closing: Reach my daily target.

What to learn:
Took the trade maybe a little premature should probably have waited for M15/M30 close
Could have covered at next SR line 1.3640 instead of where I closed it now.

The above is an example of things I enter in my journal for every trade I take.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-trade-20110927.gif Size: 16 KB
Quoting TheSwede
...What to learn:
Took the trade maybe a little premature should probably have waited for M15/M30 close
Could have covered at next SR line 1.3640 instead of where I closed it now.

The above is an example of things I enter in my journal for every trade I take.

Attachment 795330
Hi Swede,
I believe that if you take your trades at the top of the hour (wait for H1 to close), you will have better entries. This is because it obviously coincides with the close of all the lower TFs and is when you can expect the most momentum.

Obviously use your PA rules in the H1 as well.

Also using the H1 close perspective, in the current market conditions, the volatility can be your friend. For example, most large H1 candles closing with a wick smaller than 13% of the move will retrace to at least 38.2% on the next candle.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
A thriving thread you have here, PT. Congrats.
Quoting AaronWard
A thriving thread you have here, PT. Congrats.
Thanks Aaron. Stay tuned and participate any time.
Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • Post #93
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:45am Sep 28, 2011 9:32am | Edited 9:45am
Well it's been an interesting week so far.

We have reached the low end of our target zone and I expect a further push up into the zone (blue shaded area on the chart) between a now slightly expanded range of 1.3645 to 1.3730.

Yesterday I said that I would take a short at 1.3700 area upon reversal confirmation. Let's see how that works out today. As long as price now stays above the rising trend line formed this week, the up move is not over yet and at the very least, even if it does not push up to the upper limit of the zone, I expect some ranging within the limits later today or tomorrow. This of course barring any market moving news that may be released before the weekend.

As I mentioned in my very first analysis in Post #2 of this thread, I expect the continuation of the H4 (and above) downtrend to take place in the monthly October candle (nothing is a straight line in this business)

Therefore, I am waiting for a few penetrations of the falling channel resistance line to see how much supply is waiting in the zone before deciding to open the short position. As we all know, anything can happen and we have to expect the unexpected. Although no matter what happens, I am still bearish on this pair, but it is still quite possible (as pointed out by Walb99 in post #87) for the retrace to take us up quite a bit further, although I would set the upper limit at 1.3940 for a double top. The reason I feel it is possible is that it is still Wednesday and we still have 2 more days of volatility. However, as possible as it is, I do not see how it will make it that far considering the amount of supply waiting in the low to mid 1.37xx area. This is something we will have to wait and see. Remember, always be nimble.

Peace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
PT. Great thread.
Presently running with short at .3664 with trailing sl. I had set a pending order set late in London session at .3686, but I couldn't....wait for it...and had premature..........
Also have sell limit set at .3717 ( 61.8% retrace from 9/15 move down)awaiting another entry point to short this sucker.

PT, good thread. Guess its okay to post charts and such( sometimes a bit of humor to break the tension)?
The move down in the last hour surely shows us how volatile the market is right now. Stands to reason considering the VIX is still pretty high. Currently around 39

As you can see on the H1 chart, price was rejected at the weekly rising trend line. I expect a move back up now (barring any fundamental reasons to the contrary) towards our supply zone.

Stay tuned.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting FXFortune
PT. Great thread.
Thanks FxFortune.
Feel free to participate is you wish.
The more the merrier.

Welcome
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting Gofer Pips
Presently running with short at .3664 with trailing sl. I had set a pending order set late in London session at .3686, but I couldn't....wait for it...and had premature..........
Also have sell limit set at .3717 ( 61.8% retrace from 9/15 move down)awaiting another entry point to short this sucker.

PT, good thread. Guess its okay to post charts and such( sometimes a bit of humor to break the tension)?
Hi Gopher,
Glad you dropped by.
Please feel free to participate.
Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
I've been so impatient with this thing. I've decided to handcuff myself til the opportunity screams at me. Wait a minute it's done that 1000 times already! The Euro is very stubborn Nice thread TP
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
Quoting BullsVsBears
I've been so impatient with this thing. I've decided to handcuff myself til the opportunity screams at me. Wait a minute it's done that 1000 times already! The Euro is very stubborn Nice thread TP
Patience grasshopper. lol
Just sit on your hands and rock yourself back and forth. That's what I do

Now alternatively, if the price makes an H1 close below this week's rising trend line, I may then look for a price action signal to go short at whatever price it stands at the time. Pretty low risk in the medium to long term if that's the case coz we all know where this is heading eventually.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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