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EurAnalysis

Hello!

Waiting for the champions league and Arsenal vs Olympiakos...

I'll post a picture on why the area we are at now is so interesting (As PipTrapper already pointed out) and possibly why the bulls want to defend it. This area has been in play many times and was pointed out to me by Seykota. Look at this Fib and its levels. If we break this level on a montly basis I guess that we could go as low as 23.6 % fib level. The question for you that trade larger time frame is when to get in.

Hope you got your fill today PipTrapper

Maybe time to open a demo account and start position trade.

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Quoting TheSwede
Hello!

Waiting for the champions league and Arsenal vs Olympiakos...

I'll post a picture on why the area we are at now is so interesting (As PipTrapper already pointed out) and possibly why the bulls want to defend it. This area has been in play many times and was pointed out to me by Seykota. Look at this Fib and its levels. If we break this level on a montly basis I guess that we could go as low as 23.6 % fib level. The question for you that trade larger time frame is when to get in.

Hope you got your fill today PipTrapper

Maybe time...
Your monthly chart is missing some data.
The low in 2010 was 1.1875
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • Post #103
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:11pm Sep 28, 2011 1:45pm | Edited at 2:11pm
Nice thread PipTrapper. Recently switched from stock trading to Forex, mostly a technical trader. I look forward to continuing my education and hopefully contributing something useful in the future. 1000 GMT finished a double top on the one hour chart and didn't break my 1.3714 R3. The 4h RSI, Stock and CCI just turned down, and going through my trend line, looking to take a short if it holds. Looks like it may
Quoting PipTrapper
Patience grasshopper. lol
Just sit on your hands and rock yourself back and forth. That's what I do

Now alternatively, if the price makes an H1 close below this week's rising trend line, I may then look for a price action signal to go short at whatever price it stands at the time. Pretty low risk in the medium to long term if that's the case coz we all know where this is heading eventually.

My spidey senses are telling me we'll see confirmation of a short on a daily chart by today. I'm going to sit on my hands like you say til then. The 1hr is the reason I keep getting popped on the hand. Dipping into the cookie jar without asking Let's see what happens
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
I like to believe that "hindsight is 20/20" but sometimes I have to doubt even that saying.

A thought crossed my mind that perhaps I should have just accepted the 1.3689 high that slightly pierced the falling channel resistance as the entry point for my short position. However, we still have two days left in this month and week and nothing yet rules out the probability of hitting the zone (or higher) again.

Yes I know price has fallen below this week's rising trend line (no matter which points you use to draw it) and is probably heading lower, but I still believe we will get a bounce back up before the final plunge downwards.

Volume is lower right now and because the European equities sold off in the last hour of their trading session, it stands to reason that the US market (who are more nervous about Europe than the Europeans) would follow suit and sell off.

Besides, we didn't exactly get any good news from Europe today (not that I expected any, but come on, throw us a fake rumor at least)

So, we shall see what Asia starts us off with later. Until then, I am still sufficiently short the euro so if it keeps plunging down now, I'm in the money.

Those of you who have not shorted yet, I wouldn't recommend you jump in now. The goal is to sell the tops, not the bottoms.

Good night all.
Peace
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting lruston
Nice thread PipTrader. Recently switched from stock trading to Forex, mostly a technical trader. I look forward to continuing my education and hopefully contributing something useful in the future. 1000 GMT finished a double top on the one hour chart and didn't break my 1.3714 R3. The 4h RSI, Stock and CCI just turned down, and going through my trend line, looking to take a short if it holds. Looks like it may
Hi lruston and welcome to EurAnalysis.
Looking forward to your posts.
Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
This explains the sudden bearish momentum. It won't last but we should probably be prepared to short at the next opportunity. Probaly before Friday close of the European session.

NEWS: Spain, Italy Extend Bans on Shorting Bank Shares

IMPLICATION: Europeans believe Greece will default so they are circling the wagons.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • Post #108
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:26pm Sep 28, 2011 3:12pm | Edited at 3:26pm
Aaaah, so that was the reason. I observed bearish movement on both EUR and commodities (and of course bullish US index) in a while and haven't a clue why is this happening. Didn't touch EUR, since I am waiting for .37 too , but got some green pips on metals

It seems EUR and commodities stopped falling (and US dollar index doesn't seem to be rising anymore right now) so I guess it is time to prepare for shorting at the expected level.

Good luck everyone, and hope everyone gets a good shorting position on the peak . (as PT said - Friday seems to be a good opportunity )
Read this article by Dow Jones and add the mentioned dates to your calendar of events as they probably won't show up on the FF events calendar.

EU CRISIS ROAD MAP: KEY MILESTONES AHEAD

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
Read this article by Dow Jones and add the mentioned dates to your calendar of events as they probably won't show up on the FF events calendar.

EU CRISIS ROAD MAP: KEY MILESTONES AHEAD

.
the EFSF voting in Germany during the London session tomorrow will be the most important and the german equities futures are very bullish
in this case it won't be a surpirse when the eu moves to the upside,
!! still careful with shorts
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
tuning in
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I've enjoyed your comments...agree with most of them. Will keep up as best I can...thanks for your input!
Do you use myfxbook.com by chance?
Just went through this thread and have to say good work, enjoyed it. I am not sure how to post a pic but just wanted to add my monthly (ma) on euro has crossed to the dowside and is all but certain to close below. I have used this for the last 6 years and historically is a good sign to the trend for sometimes very extended amounts time. Also have the same long term trade happening on CHF,AUD,NZD, and GBP which confirms a bullish dollar. I know most are waiting for a pullback I have a feeling they could be very small retracements now... you know when the USD decides to go, it usually goes hard. A clear of the lows look for 1.3050 (.618,.382fib) will be following along with you guys. Don't let this thing go without you I seriously doubt 1.3690 will get re-tested.
Quoting Gaara
...I have a feeling they could be very small retracements now... you know when the USD decides to go, it usually goes hard. A clear of the lows look for 1.3050 (.618,.382fib) will be following along with you guys. Don't let this thing go without you I seriously doubt 1.3690 will get re-tested.
oooweee, what are you gonna buy with all your winnings? Personally, I need some dental work...

But seriously, the sweetest part of this was 1.45 - 1.35, I think. Ahhh....memories. But 1.35 to 1.30 and below is going to be tougher sledding. There's a whole lotta intervention in the way. Backdoor QE3 ("The European Vacation") starting up shortly - remains to be seen how much usd weakness that brings.

Of course, it could be. Hopium started to wear off today it seems. Next big leg down just around the bend. Expectations kill.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
walb99: the EFSF voting in Germany during the London session tomorrow will be the most important and the german equities futures are very bullish
in this case it won't be a surpirse when the eu moves to the upside,
!! still careful with shorts.
---------------------------------

I'll be suprised if the Eur moves up to 1.4 .. be careful with longs the market is screaming SELL euro,gbp,aussie,nzd,chf... When monthly candles have that kind of volume and close with no wick it keeps going usually. Look back at monthly charts when USD gets that kind of steam is just goes my friend 2008 again at the beginning of 2010.
A bearish engulfing on the daily occured. I placed a fib retrace on a 1hr and price is resting at 50%. I predict a lil draw back to 38% and then we're off to around 1.34 resistance area. The bulls will fight but the bears will prevail by Friday and we all can go have drinks cause this puppy's tanking like the Titanic... Cheers!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
Quoting walb99
the EFSF voting in Germany during the London session tomorrow will be the most important and the german equities futures are very bullish
in this case it won't be a surpirse when the eu moves to the upside,
!! still careful with shorts
I would vote for Risk aversion due to uncertainty after the last news. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=317601

That, of course, means risk aversion. I expect to see the EUR dropping against the major currency pairs overnight .

Pbh
Great spike up , I'll get ready to jump in a short trade when the london session starts.

Pbh
just tried a short @ 1.3620
we'll see..
Quoting Pbh
I would vote for Risk aversion due to uncertainty after the last news. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=317601

That, of course, means risk aversion. I expect to see the EUR dropping against the major currency pairs overnight .

Pbh
wasn't there a test vote, Merkel thinks she has a done deal, no?

we might be able to watch live here, not sure, never done it. German C-Span, woohoo, now we're living!

http://www.bundestag.de/htdocs_e/press/tv/tv_live.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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