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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

Playing poker....

Quoting PipTrapper


Mats Sundin will be able to tell you what makes a winner. Winners know how to take a loss. It is the losers that don't
I am not a huge hockey fan but I used to be an avid follower whenever the Maple Leafs made it to the playoffs.
It's been about 2 years now since he retired. I wonder what he is up to these days. Think he's trading Forex? LOL
Quoting walb99
sp500 looks very bullish and if this will become true and if the eu wants to follow, there could be a major move above 40xx in the cards
Yes the Asian session started this and Europe followed their lead. Now we see if US continues it.

Remember US is still in futures trading. It is the traders on the floor who ultimately dictate the direction. However, typically if futures trading pushes the indices to a positive open, especially after such a tailspin, there is enough momentum to continue.

Mind you, I would not get too excited about this as the SP500 is still trading in range. It would probably take a significant break above 1225-1250 to push the Euro to 1.40+
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes the Asian session started this and Europe followed their lead. Now we see if US continues it.

Remember US is still in futures trading. It is the traders on the floor who ultimately dictate the direction. However, typically if futures trading pushes the indices to a positive open, especially after such a tailspin, there is enough momentum to continue.

Mind you, I would not get too excited about this as the SP500 is still trading in range. It would probably take a significant break above 1225-1250 to push the Euro to 1.40+
you are right, no reason to get exited anyway, everything is possible, but as a trader you can only wait for the main trend to continue imho
this means for eu, a break below the current trendline
regards
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
We have finally made it to our next target at 1.3595 area.
This is mostly due to some bullish activity in the equity markets.
Asia took the lead this morning followed by European markets.
The NY equity indices are still trading in futures right now but it looks like they are pushing the open into positive territory.
Typically and in absence of other divergent factors, when the equity markets rally, the risk currencies (EUR & GBP) follow.

If this momentum continues into the NY session, we should manage to reach our ultimate target to place a new short position at or above the falling channel resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Ok I don't like to counter trend trade either. The rewards are questionable and the stress is to much. That just leaves the question in which direction we are trending.

H1 up
H4 down (?)
Daily down
Weekly down
monthly up

Edit: starting to look for shorts

Quoting PipTrapper
Yes. Another method I like is to find a good strong trend line and as long as I do not see a change in sentiment and that the volatility is medium to low, I enter right at (or on a pierce of) the line for a reversal in the direction of the trend. However, I don't do counter trend. I feel there are so many opportunities every day that I can afford to be choosy.
re-post from my tl-thread
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
Quoting TheSwede
Ok I don't like to counter trend trade either. The rewards are questionable and the stress is to much. That just leaves the question in which direction we are trending.

H1 up
H4 down (?)
Daily down
Weekly down
monthly up

Edit: starting to look for shorts
There is a confluence of strong resistance in the 1.3660 to 1.3700 region. In the last two weeks, the Euro has range traded several times in this area and mid last week a ton of supply was made available which drove the price down to 1.3380.
There is still loads of supply in that region which makes it a perfect shorting opportunity. At least that is my sentiment anyway. We shall see what PA says when we get there.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Today's push upwards on some market confidence that Europe may be able to save Greece from burning up in flames has brought the price very close to our target shorting area. The high today has hit 1.3656. Kind of in the zone but it is in the low end and has not reached the falling channel resistance.
The objective is to place a short at or above that level. Therefore the short position has not yet been taken.
Will we see the 1.37 level today? The technicals say it is still possible for now and the equity market moves to the upside do support it.
Price action on the H1 chart has not yet confirmed any reversal to the downside. Therefore we shall leave the possibility of seeing our target today.

Here are the H1 chart of the EUR/USD and the D1 chart of the SP500
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
5 Reasons for Current Euro Strength (And Why It Is Temporary)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
5 Reasons for Current Euro Strength (And Why It Is Temporary)
is convincing, this means to stay out of the market as long as the 1h is trending up
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
Quoting walb99
is convincing, this means to stay out of the market as long as the 1h is trending up
Yes, we have to get past the month end as the market has to adjust itself.
Most likely the monthly October candle will take us down to new deeper lows after a brief continuation of this bounce.

That would put us smack in the middle of next week just in time for ECB rate statement / press conference, followed by NFP on Friday. Those two items will be the catalysts we are waiting for.

On another note, Greece is voting tonight on the property tax issue and the rest of this week, some euro member states are voting on the July 21 agreement to expand the EFSF.

I say this week and next will be a bumpy ride but at the end we should have a very clear directional bias.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Am still holding positions. Daily USD Index which is my primary trend indicator came close to testing critical support area that I use.
Fiboannci series EMA's 13 21 34 55
Nothing has failed as of this post. Will see what the afternoon brings.

With all the bullish on equities talk today may be the signs of approaching the end of the retrace.

Consumer confidence was dead in the water.
Greece parlimentary votes keeping the withdrawal of Greece and Papendreo in office is all of "4" votes to the plus. If everyone is buying equities on a resolution of Greece debt and no Euro contagion, seems premature to me.

Will add to Euro shorts on 8 hour bars if some bullish patterning starts to develop, signaling end of retrace and possible resumption of trend.
We are at or near significant resistance levels currently.
Quoting foto
...Will add to Euro shorts on 8 hour bars if some bullish patterning starts to develop, signaling end of retrace and possible resumption of trend.
We are at or near significant resistance levels currently.
Current resistance (supply) zone starts around 1.3645 up to and including 1.3730.
If it can make it to 1.3700 I will short there, otherwise I will take what I can get anywhere above 1.3670. Makes no difference as I know where this is going. My stops will be just above 1.3940 but I will be flexible with those stops depending on what patterns I see and what the fundies are telling me.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Another crash should be here soon. Then 1.5+
Decent reversal on 8 hour bar USD Index at the closing hour of US equities.

As Yogi Berra used to say "it ain't over till it's over"
Next stop Tokyo.

Merkel sells out her political base so the Germans better get used to higher taxes to pay the price for the Euro to stay in existence.
  • Post #76
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  • Edited 2:42am Sep 28, 2011 2:12am | Edited 2:42am
careful with shorts, the bull is back
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
When is soon and what crash are we talking about????
I guess that you refer to the US debt. There is a presidential election in US next fall. If any side gets majority in the house and senate as well as the president we could (and could is the word to emphasize here) get a situation where the US debt could be dealt with. If not then back to the same politics where one side think you should raise taxes and cut spendings and the other just want to cut spending and don't want to hear about any tax raises.

But all in all the situation doesn't look good. Don't know if you should laugh or cry but I have most of my FX accounts in Euro... Starting to diversify but where the heck should I go with that?

Quoting PipPipPip
Another crash should be here soon. Then 1.5+
Quoting TheSwede
Don't know if you should laugh or cry but I have most of my FX accounts in Euro... Starting to diversify but where the heck should I go with that?
That's a good question.
Look at it this way. If both USD and EUR crash, then all other currencies will go down with them. Net effect? Nothing.

If the USD crashes any more than it already has, you have a perfect buying opportunity when it finally stabilizes (which it will)
Same applies to the EUR.

So, it's quite simple. Diversify your cash holdings equally in EUR and USD.

Oh, don't forget to keep some of it in SEK.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting walb99
careful with shorts, the bull is back
The bull will soon run out of steam. Month and quarter end adjustments causing an equity bounce. Some EZ hope helping it along. Once the illusion of positive outlook is smashed, the bears will be back in control.

I haven't shorted yet because I believe we will see the 1.37 handle before the next move down. We may even see 1.3720/50 area but I do not see it going any further at this point. All depends on market timing.

We shall see.

I remain nimble.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
hey piptrapper!

nice thread u got going here

for the pair, im seeing bearish return definitely,
those euro bulls were just dudes living on some tv lie of the exageratted 'safety' that investing in eurozone is not a problem lol.

I say keep our shorts.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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