GBPCHF is approaching to 1.32 now, I won't trade it unless I would have seen a decent pa around this level. I would like to take try at 1.315 long if it can hit there. what's your view if I may? thank you
krue
krue
- #483
- Jul 25, 2011 4:35am Jul 25, 2011 4:35am
yeah, absolutely, it totally doesn't make sense to trade against the trend. I still have the bottom fishing mentality, which is very harmful. I noticed the problem after my trade was triggered, was thinking to close the position upon retracement. what a pity is I was in a meeting, and lost the chance to close it when price return to a tiny profit. now, I am in deep water
, I am setting a stoploss at 1.3078, if it hits it, then let it get hitted. very bad lesson today 
, I am setting a stoploss at 1.3078, if it hits it, then let it get hitted. very bad lesson today With the current uncertainty in relation to the US Debt Ceiling, this is making the markets jittery...when the markets are jittery CHF and JPY tend to strengthen quite hard - look at charts of the CHF pairs and also UJ+CHFJPY and you'll see CHF is currently the strongest currency since market open.
Thus trying to take a long against the strongest current currency is not something I would be recommending right now. It would take a very good technical setup for me to want to go long a CHF pair at the moment.
I am in fact short UJ and UCHF since...
- #485
- Jul 25, 2011 5:05am Jul 25, 2011 5:05am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
yeah, absolutely, it totally doesn't make sense to trade against the trend. I still have the bottom fishing mentality, which is very harmful. I noticed the problem after my trade was triggered, was thinking to close the position upon retracement. what a pity is I was in a meeting, and lost the chance to close it when price return to a tiny profit. now, I am in deep water
What concerns me with the above statement is that it appears you decided on your SL once in the trade?
IMO you should always decide your SL before you enter the trade, how else can you sensibly decde on your lot size from your risk for the trade? I always ask myself where has price most likely got to go in order for the reasoning for the trade to be no longer valid...it is at this level where I would set my SL, why would you want to be in a trade if the reasoning for your entry is no longer valid.
There is nothing wrong with top/bottom picking as long as you have a good technical reason to do so. The herd are notorious for bottom/top picking at will with random entries based on the 'belief' that a trend must reverse and price must come back down etc.
- #490
- Jul 25, 2011 7:31pm Jul 25, 2011 7:31pm
LJ, good questions, I should have done in line with the procedure you described, my problem is that I have been used to do thing piece by piece, in a wish to master the entry first ,then make a turn to master the exit. I knew I am lack of plan integrity, the root reason I guess is that I am not very confident about my exit analysis, so, makes a lot excuse to let the trade open, meanwhile greedy takes another role of doing so......
my entry reason was exactly what you analyzed, a seemingly good ppz conflu with 61%. I will add trend into decision making next time, and other factors? not yet have any idea for the time being.
Krue
my entry reason was exactly what you analyzed, a seemingly good ppz conflu with 61%. I will add trend into decision making next time, and other factors? not yet have any idea for the time being.
Krue
What was the reason for your entry, I presumed it was the support and 61% fib confluence?
What concerns me with the above statement is that it appears you decided on your SL once in the trade?
IMO you should always decide your SL before you enter the trade, how else can you sensibly decde on your lot size from your risk for the trade? I always ask myself where has price most likely got to go in order for the reasoning for the trade to be no longer valid...it is at this level where I would set my SL, why would you want to be in a trade if the...
- #491
- Jul 26, 2011 1:36am Jul 26, 2011 1:36am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
LJ, good questions, I should have done in line with the procedure you described, my problem is that I have been used to do thing piece by piece, in a wish to master the entry first ,then make a turn to master the exit. I knew I am lack of plan integrity, the root reason I guess is that I am not very confident about my exit analysis, so, makes a lot excuse to let the trade open, meanwhile greedy takes another role of doing so......
my entry reason was exactly what you analyzed, a seemingly good ppz conflu with 61%. I will add trend...
If you have proper risk management then you will never blow an account and your mistakes will not prove overly costly to your bottom line. Without risk management you have nothing, entries and exits do not matter because sooner or later you will become unstuck because of your lack of risk management.
When I look at a trade setup and am deciding where to place my SL I ask myself where has price got to go in order for the reasoning behind the trade be invalid - on the balance of probabilities (because nothing is 100% in trading). Now look at the chart...is this area @ 1.3078 where you decided to put your SL after you were in DD?
You have to develop a risk management method that suits you, but the important thing is that you MUST have one, it is the most fundamental concept in trading and comes before mastering entries and exits.
Without a plan you have to make decisions mid-trade...and I this is what a lot of traders can't manage - rationale though process when a trade is in drawdown. People are more likely to let the trade continue due to fear of taking a loss than to analyse the chart rationally and realise they should cut the trade...people convince themselves that the reasoning is still valid and that market is sure to turn around soon...and thats why you'll see every retail broker with an order book full of customers going against the trend with their average position in drawdown...the steeper the trend the higher the % of their customers with open positions going against the trend. It's daft and it's where the herd mentality comes from.
There is nothing wrong with going against the trend, as long as you realise that you are doing so and thus the chances of a massive runner are lower than taking a trade in the direction of a strong trend and you have a proper risk management plan and can take a loss if the reasoning you used is not longer valid.
With regards the GCHF setup, it was, technically a tradable setup. I didn't take it for more advanced reasons I've touched upon earlier, but if technically this setup was within your rules then you should be happy and move on to the next...trading according to your own plan is more important than your P/L...why, because if you can master the first then the second will not matter (as your P/L will grow).
You're not making mistakes everyone else (including me) hasn't made BTW, but hopefully you can learn not to make the same mistakes again from what I've said above.
- #493
- Jul 26, 2011 2:18am Jul 26, 2011 2:18am
Hi, LJ, it is so nice of you putting so much time to help address the issue which I was relunctant to face , I will take it seriously, and trade well considered plan, rather then concentrate on entry point only.
where might be the stoploss level, if it were you who traded my setup? I guess the wick low below the lowest ppz you drawn? or somewhere else?
Thank you, man
Krue
where might be the stoploss level, if it were you who traded my setup? I guess the wick low below the lowest ppz you drawn? or somewhere else?
Thank you, man
Krue
You will learn over time that exits are more important than entries and that the thing that is most important of all, which is something every trader needs to know from the start is capital perservation and risk management.
If you have proper risk management then you will never blow an account and your mistakes will not prove overly costly to your bottom line. Without risk management you have nothing, entries and exits do not matter because sooner or later you will become unstuck because of your lack of risk management.
When I look at a trade...
- #494
- Jul 26, 2011 2:32am Jul 26, 2011 2:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Hi, LJ, it is so nice of you putting so much time to help address the issue which I was relunctant to face , I will take it seriously, and trade well considered plan, rather then concentrate on entry point only.
where might be the stoploss level, if it were you who traded my setup? I guess the wick low below the lowest ppz you drawn? or somewhere else?
Thank you, man
Krue
- #495
- Jul 26, 2011 3:09am Jul 26, 2011 3:09am
technically I think you made great point, just curious what might be the reason once either of these two levels got hit you would think the entry reason becomes invalidated, coz market may have knee jerk reactions to a justifiable ppz level ? in any case, your advices are cute I thank you very much for the comment, it helps a lot .
krue
I thank you very much for the comment, it helps a lot .krue
Yep you got it, below either of the wicks low marked would be the sensible place to place the SL.
- #496
- Jul 26, 2011 3:53am Jul 26, 2011 3:53am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
technically I think you made great point, just curious what might be the reason once either of these two levels got hit you would think the entry reason becomes invalidated, coz market may have knee jerk reactions to a justifiable ppz level ? in any case, your advices are cute
krue
Thus this is the best basis we have to judge where if price moves beyond it stands a higher chance of moving further down. Of course the real test is whether it closes below the support...but this can be far far beyond the support like indeed it was for GCHF so using the previous wicks low is generally a good way to judge where to put your SL.
- #497
- Jul 26, 2011 9:51am Jul 26, 2011 9:51am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,381 Posts
Looks like the market moved on Obama's speech last night, and then went dead this morning. Always fun to get up at 3:30 AM and see you missed all the action
I think it is going to be a pretty flat market until this debt timeline date is passed, and then things will move again. But even at that point it will be August, so it might remain pretty flat until September.
I think it is going to be a pretty flat market until this debt timeline date is passed, and then things will move again. But even at that point it will be August, so it might remain pretty flat until September.
- #500
- Jul 27, 2011 7:32pm Jul 27, 2011 7:32pm
Superb, LJ
Curious about the long short ratio, if, for instance, 19% of the positions take short trades, who take the other side of the rest of 81% long trades? maybe my question is a bit misconceptual, just quite not understand how to make up this statistics, if one buy while the other side of the trade sell?
Krue
Curious about the long short ratio, if, for instance, 19% of the positions take short trades, who take the other side of the rest of 81% long trades? maybe my question is a bit misconceptual, just quite not understand how to make up this statistics, if one buy while the other side of the trade sell?
Krue
A pretty easy set of trades to manage as price just keeps making new lows, especially in for UJ. Tightened my SL now to lock in profit.
Taking trades in the direction of the trend with supporting tehnicals and fundamentals is often very rewarding...something which is beyond the 'herd' who are just convinced that price will reverse all the time and are always bottom/top picking.
The problem is the herd actually think they are different to the very group they belong to because they are going against the trend...when in fact they are going against...