Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

JPY Group - Best Group to Trade 60 replies

Your experience with Forex.com [GAIN Capital Group, LLC] 37 replies

Forex Techniques Development Group 24 replies

FOREX, Robert Gray, FXLQ, and Nfa/ctfc... PLEASE REPOST IN EVERY GROUP 0 replies

Attachments: LJ Forex Group
Exit Attachments

LJ Forex Group

Quoting krue
Superb, LJ

Curious about the long short ratio, if, for instance, 19% of the positions take short trades, who take the other side of the rest of 81% long trades? maybe my question is a bit misconceptual, just quite not understand how to make up this statistics, if one buy while the other side of the trade sell?

Krue
It shows the ratio of current long positions to short positions for Oanda.

Remember that:
a) Oanda is primarily a retail broker and thus this is a good representation of the retail positioning on these pairs but not necessarily the market as a whole.
b) It is a ratio of position and not position sizes/volume.
c) There has to be an imbalance in orders/voume at any given price for price to move away from that price.

You will find the same thing on any retail broker orderbook...the retail trades primarily go against the trend, the stronger the trend the more likely they are going against it adding postions as price keeps going against them.

Now ask yourself where has the big money / the smart money been in UCHF and UJ over the last few months.
Quoting krue
Superb, LJ

Curious about the long short ratio, if, for instance, 19% of the positions take short trades, who take the other side of the rest of 81% long trades? maybe my question is a bit misconceptual, just quite not understand how to make up this statistics, if one buy while the other side of the trade sell?

Krue
These are the stats for just one broker not for all the market. When net exposure = (total longs-total shorts) gets out of the risk limits brokers hedge that exposure into interbank market and thats how retail traders contribute liquidity to big players.
.
Quoting lovejoy80
A pretty easy set of trades to manage as price just keeps making new lows, especially in for UJ. Tightened my SL now to lock in profit.
Of course there is nothing wrong with going against the big trend (UCHF), the difference being:

a) This is a setup from my own rules.
b) I am using pre-defined risk management with a firm SL in place at a location where my decision for the trade is most likely invalid.
c) A trade management plan that was thought out before I entered the trade.

Whereas the average retail trader:

a) Bases their decision making on a whim or 'price must reverse'
b) Doesnt give any thought to risk management or a SL.
c) Gets scared when the trade doesn't go there way and is defiant in their believe price must reverse (and cant see the blindingly obvious) and instead of cutting their trade they add another position.

Rant over
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF_trade.png Size: 16 KB
Quoting nasir.khan
These are the stats for just one broker not for all the market. When net exposure = (total longs-total shorts) gets out of the risk limits brokers hedge that exposure into interbank market and thats how retail traders contribute liquidity to big players.
.
Nice explanation
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
yeah, that explanation makes the ratio understandable, and now it is useful information to me. thanks, really brilliant.

I moved to BE on this pair, not sure if should close at this FTA, just leave it with risk free. close half is a wise solution, I just trade 0.1 lot, which is minimal in my acc, so.....

and, this is my second trade this week.


krue

Quoting lovejoy80
Nice explanation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.gif Size: 15 KB
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
closed the short position, and reversed to long at the ppz and 61 conflu. however, the long position seems not sweet to me. what could be the problem I didn't see?

meanwhile, shorted EURUSD. move to BE, see if could get a nice ride to the south
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy wk.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
Quoting krue
closed the short position, and reversed to long at the ppz and 61 conflu. however, the long position seems not sweet to me. what could be the problem I didn't see?

meanwhile, shorted EURUSD. move to BE, see if could get a nice ride to the south
Not sure I see much confluence for you AJ long. I'd prefer to be looking at the 84.30-50 area for a potential long but not with a touch trade.

Nice one on EU, it's hit the first problem area, if this can break then my next target would be the 1.4200 area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 21 KB
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I had this conflu, was thinking you might draw the similar, geeeeee

I am leaving office for home, have a nice weekend, guys

Krue



Quoting lovejoy80
Not sure I see much confluence for you AJ long. I'd prefer to be looking at the 84.30-50 area for a potential long but not with a touch trade.

Nice one on EU, it's hit the first problem area, if this can break then my next target would be the 1.4200 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.gif Size: 16 KB
Quoting krue
I had this conflu, was thinking you might draw the similar, geeeeee

I am leaving office for home, have a nice weekend, guys

Krue
I prefer a more prominent swing to place my fibs on, especially when the trade is against the current sentiment and I dont trade the yens very often.
I mostly trade according to technical methods, but sometimes the market presents fundamental opportunities that are just easy money
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.jpg Size: 54 KB
Quoting lovejoy80
I most trade according to technical methods, but sometimes the market presents fundamental opportunities that are just easy money
I see the CAD weakness this morning, and I am guessing a lot of that has to do with oil being down.

But what is the fundamental reason for this? I can't figure out why the CAD is so weak. Was there some news out about Canadian debt? Is it just because the economy is slowing down, so oil exports are expected to slow down?
Quoting unlv_tj
I see the CAD weakness this morning, and I am guessing a lot of that has to do with oil being down.

But what is the fundamental reason for this? I can't figure out why the CAD is so weak. Was there some news out about Canadian debt? Is it just because the economy is slowing down, so oil exports are expected to slow down?

Nothing to do with Oil, I personally think the oil/CAD relationship is overhyped unless Oil is moving up or down consistently over a longer time frame.

If you look at the CAD data and US data releases today that gives you the answers.
Quoting lovejoy80
Nothing to do with Oil, I personally think the oil/CAD relationship is overhyped unless Oil is moving up or down consistently over a longer time frame.

If you look at the CAD data and US data releases today that gives you the answers.
Ah, the CAD GDP numbers were bad, well that makes sense. I went back to sleep at that time, thinking between the debt crisis, the London market action, and being a Friday it would be a flat day on the markets.

Whoops.

Man, that GBPCAD looks like two pocupines wrestling around. The EURCAD looks like it might set up for a nice short next week around 1.3870. I will have to keep an eye on it.
Quoting unlv_tj
Ah, the CAD GDP numbers were bad, well that makes sense. I went back to sleep at that time, thinking between the debt crisis, the London market action, and being a Friday it would be a flat day on the markets.

Whoops.

Man, that GBPCAD looks like two pocupines wrestling around. The EURCAD looks like it might set up for a nice short next week around 1.3870. I will have to keep an eye on it.
Yes poor CAD economic data combined with poor US data too. Canada is largely dependant on the US for exports so the state of the US economy affects the Canadian economy.

Thus when you get trend changing data releases like GDP and they are both seriously bad then it's a no-brainer that CAD will materially weaken on the crosses.

I don't take these kind of trades often, but sometimes they are too easy to pass up on.
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes poor CAD economic data combined with poor US data too. Canada is largely dependant on the US for exports so the state of the US economy affects the Canadian economy.

Thus when you get trend changing data releases like GDP and they are both seriously bad then it's a no-brainer that CAD will materially weaken on the crosses.

I don't take these kind of trades often, but sometimes they are too easy to pass up on.
I never even considered the CAD economy relies on the US economy so much, but it makes sense. Thank you Mark!

Hope your trading has been well this summer.
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I thought you were not, LJ, here is a chart that impressed me quite a lot, and I changed my method a little bit since.

krue

Quoting lovejoy80
I prefer a more prominent swing to place my fibs on, especially when the trade is against the current sentiment and I dont trade the yens very often.
Attached Image
Quoting krue
I thought you were not, LJ, here is a chart that impressed me quite a lot, and I changed my method a little bit since.

krue
...and here is the AJ setup on the same TF as the CHFJPY setup, now can you see how small the AJ swing is?

Visually they just look so different don't they...AJ is a choppy pair, price is coming straight back following the breakout above this S/R area the day before - that's never a good sign and combine this with the fact the swing is small then a TT is not a high probability trade on this occasion from a tehnical perspective. Add to it the current risk sentiment view (i.e. strong risk aversion present in the market and this means a strong Yen) then this is an easy pass.

Whereas the CHFPY is a clearer more prominent swing on the daily TF, it is a first time back to this area following the breaout, but unlike AJ it's not coming straight back the next day and thus this is a high probability TT - and visually you should be able to see how different they are?

Make sense?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.gif Size: 21 KB
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
good analysis, LJ, and totally make sense, thanks a ton, LJ, superb

krue

Quoting lovejoy80
...and here is the AJ setup on the same TF as the CHFJPY setup, now can you see how small the AJ swing is?

Visually they just look so different don't they...AJ is a choppy pair, price is coming straight back following the breakout above this S/R area the day before - that's never a good sign and combine this with the fact the swing is small then a TT is not a high probability trade on this occasion from a tehnical perspective. Add to it the current risk sentiment view (i.e. strong risk aversion present in the market and this means a strong...
1st trade of the week yesterday...I'll leave you all to figure out the reasoning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc3.gif Size: 13 KB
Mark, I will take a crack at the reasoning for you going long on the USDCAD...

I didn't follow the fundamentals closely this week, except for the debt crisis, which was probably more show than anything else. So I sort of tuned it all out.

The USDCAD appears to be coming off a double bottom, and broke through the Round Number of .95. By the top of this break through the .95 number the 50 Fib retracement lined up pretty close to the .95 round number. So on the return to .95 price pretty much stone walled right there, going through the often volatile London session. This shows the level has a lot of support and a retracement was likely.

The the NY session in full swing, the USDCAD then went long again.

So the reason was a mix of breaking through a big round number/PPZ and then expecting a return to this area before moving away again. Add to it, this BRN/PPZ was also the 50 fib retracement. Also, the European session could not break through and the bulls held their ground.
0 traders viewing now