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  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
this is the beginning of the week, many pips to all
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Quoting krue
this is the beginning of the week, many pips to all
Looks like a good trade to me, I'd be looking for 127 area to hold as resistance now.

Been a day off today for me and missed some easy opportunities on CHF pairs and EAUD - both were screaming to be traded.

Been a quiet few weeks but back trading full time from tomorrow so looking forward to doing battle with the market again.
Quoting lovejoy80
Looks like a good trade to me, I'd be looking for 127 area to hold as resistance now.

Been a day off today for me and missed some easy opportunities on CHF pairs and EAUD - both were screaming to be traded.

Been a quiet few weeks but back trading full time from tomorrow so looking forward to doing battle with the market again.
I was tempted to go short on the market open on the CHF pairs. GREAT gaps to play. But I didn't want to try to fight that huge long term trend.
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
thanks, and yeah, opportunity seems rarely presented recently. chf pairs and eaud? mind pinpoint a bit? I didn't see them except gap trades yestoday.

Quoting lovejoy80
Looks like a good trade to me, I'd be looking for 127 area to hold as resistance now.

Been a day off today for me and missed some easy opportunities on CHF pairs and EAUD - both were screaming to be traded.

Been a quiet few weeks but back trading full time from tomorrow so looking forward to doing battle with the market again.
Quoting krue
thanks, and yeah, opportunity seems rarely presented recently. chf pairs and eaud? mind pinpoint a bit? I didn't see them except gap trades yestoday.
EAUD - start at the weekly TF and work your way down.

CHF's - go over what you know about their movements in times of risk aversion and then look how they were moving yesterday against other pairs which typically move in the same way in times of risk aversion then you'll see what I mean. Don't worry if you don't get it, it's more advanced stuff based on correlations and a lot of chart watching experience.
Quoting krue
this is the beginning of the week, many pips to all
How did you manage this trade in the end? The location of equity futures combined with the fact that following the big bearish bar into support, price couldnt break through this area (and the accompanying divergence) was a pretty decent clue that price would head higher from there.
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  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
cool

Quoting lovejoy80
EAUD - start at the weekly TF and work your way down.

CHF's - go over what you know about their movements in times of risk aversion and then look how they were moving yesterday against other pairs which typically move in the same way in times of risk aversion then you'll see what I mean. Don't worry if you don't get it, it's more advanced stuff based on correlations and a lot of chart watching experience.
Quoting lovejoy80
How did you manage this trade in the end? The location of equity futures combined with the fact that following the big bearish bar into support, price couldnt break through this area (and the accompanying divergence) was a pretty decent clue that price would head higher from there.
Lj,
It seems to me you are implying size of bar(s) as market approaches an area (s/r) implies something important. Can you please kindly shed some light?
Thanks.
  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
sorry for overlooking this post, I closed near the support you indicated as below



Quoting lovejoy80
How did you manage this trade in the end? The location of equity futures combined with the fact that following the big bearish bar into support, price couldnt break through this area (and the accompanying divergence) was a pretty decent clue that price would head higher from there.
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Quoting jeffokes
Lj,
It seems to me you are implying size of bar(s) as market approaches an area (s/r) implies something important. Can you please kindly shed some light?
Thanks.

The way I would have looked at situations like GJ is that the support area was being targeted - there was relatively heavy selling into the support area which you can tell by the fact that this 1HR bar was significantly bigger than any other 1HR bar over the last few days.

Thus, given this momentum I would expect price to shoot on down fairly quickly if price was going to break this support area and for 127.00 area to hold as resistance. But the fact that momentum completely disappeared and price broke above the the 127.00 for me was a clear sign that price was going to move away further from support. Of course the divergence was also a warning sign.

Lastly, I could also use the location of price on the other yen pairs and US equity futures to help me form a view as to in which direction price was most likely to head...thus using all pieces of various information to form an overall view as to which path price was most likely to take at the support area.
Quoting krue
sorry for overlooking this post, I closed near the support you indicated as below
Wow, the charts today really do look like the dog days of summer.

Maybe the 100+ F temps here in the USA has scared all the traders away and sent them on vacation.
Quoting unlv_tj
Wow, the charts today really do look like the dog days of summer.

Maybe the 100+ F temps here in the USA has scared all the traders away and sent them on vacation.
Ha, just 12 hours after posting this, I wake up to find I completely overlooked the fact the EURUSD has not even hit the 1.43 level and an easy short play from just below the 1.43 level would have given at least 1R and now already looking like 2R returns.

Damn, what a foolish move.
Quoting unlv_tj
Ha, just 12 hours after posting this, I wake up to find I completely overlooked the fact the EURUSD has not even hit the 1.43 level and an easy short play from just below the 1.43 level would have given at least 1R and now already looking like 2R returns.

Damn, what a foolish move.
Yeah things have come to life this morning.

I made some pips going long EU yesterday but wasn't looking early enough this morning to spot that it was pretty obvious that all the USD majors would fall (or rise in the case of UC).

Did hop on the Euro short bus with some ECAD exposure though...looking for a breakout of thee support area i.e. a 4HR close below.
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Yea, I can see why you would expect the USD to be strong, just looking at the USDX chart. Nice upward trendline was touched this morning.

Mark, what made you go long on the EURUSD yesterday? I can't see it on my chart, unless it is another fundamental reason.
Quoting unlv_tj
Yea, I can see why you would expect the USD to be strong, just looking at the USDX chart. Nice upward trendline was touched this morning.

Mark, what made you go long on the EURUSD yesterday? I can't see it on my chart, unless it is another fundamental reason.
yeah the usdx chart gives it away or of course just looking at the location of price on the au,uc,eu,gu pairs and understanding that we have been and are in a ranging market and thus chance of big breakouts at this time of day and in the current market was very low.

It was based purely on technicals. If you look at your 4HR Fxpro chart with your higher TF S/R areas displayed you should be able to see that there was a higher chance of EU moving higher to the daiily resistance @ 1.4280 area - not an A+ trade by any means but that's always reflected in my risk exposure.
Some nice opportunities this week which makes a nice change compared to the last few weeks. Anyone that touch trades would have been all over this no brainer setup on EJ.

Of course if price action trading is your thing then this was another no brainer...was nice risk/reward on this one too if you traded it like it should be traded.
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  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I shorted GCHF,ECHF,ECAD & EJPY, all are in profit, I didn't close them coz I slept over without monitoring the trades, so, a bit pity I could not take some off the table when some of them hit the strong support levels.

one of the big concerns to me seems ECAD, now we have a bearish Pin against very large BUOB. from the chart, the BUOB is fighting a strong ppz, how big is the chance that price will break up and wash off the relatively small Pinbar? to be safe side, maybe it is wiser to withdrawal from the battle, let others to take the risk .


Krue

Quoting lovejoy80
Some nice opportunities this week which makes a nice change compared to the last few weeks. Anyone that touch trades would have been all over this no brainer setup on EJ.

Of course if price action trading is your thing then this was another no brainer...was nice risk/reward on this one too if you traded it like it should be traded.
Quote
one of the big concerns to me seems ECAD, now we have a bearish Pin against very large BUOB. from the chart, the BUOB is fighting a strong ppz, how big is the chance that price will break up and wash off the relatively small Pinbar? to be safe side, maybe it is wiser to withdrawal from the battle, let others to take the risk .
Attached are my ECAD weekly, daily and 4HR charts.

You can see that on the weekly chart price moved between support and resistance areas during the course of the week, so from a weekly perspective I would be on the sidelines waiting for some signs at the current range high/low areas.

From the daily chart perspective, obviously we had the BUOB that formed on Thursday off support with RSI divergence. This bar has played itself out in my view in that it was a sign price was likely to head higher which indeed it did and then reversed at weekly/daily resistance.

The bar that formed on Friday for me is not a bar I would give any consideration too in terms of it being a tradable bar. It's a friday bar and not something I personally would class as a pin bar - it's close, structure and size is all wrong.

You can see the reactions at the higher TF S/R clearly on the 4HR chart.

So for me there is no information on these charts that can give me enough confidence to want to take a trade on this pair at the moment. If you're in a short then depending on where you are short from I would be watching the reaction at the S/R areas marked and taking action according to what price was telling me at the time.

Of course you can also look at the USD constituents and also other CAD and EUR pairs to give you information that might help to formulate a view as to which direction price is likely to move from a technical persepective.
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  •  krue
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: finger scares cat, power of illusio | 410 Posts
I liked your analysis, LJ, insightful, particularly liked daily analysis and your observation on H4 tf, appreciated very much. just one quick question, when you said "structure", can you be a bit more specific as to what is the content in describing your term of structure? I noticed the close and size are wrong after you pointed them out, yet to understand the structure.

I closed all pair first thing this morning my time after getting into office. three pairs opened favorable gap,so, I collected more pips than otherwise if I would have closed them last Friday, whearas, ECAD opened up against my short position, so, I closed it with 20pips loss. last week was a good week to me.

Krue

Quoting lovejoy80
Attached are my ECAD weekly, daily and 4HR charts.

You can see that on the weekly chart price moved between support and resistance areas during the course of the week, so from a weekly perspective I would be on the sidelines waiting for some signs at the current range high/low areas.

From the daily chart perspective, obviously we had the BUOB that formed on Thursday off support with RSI divergence. This bar has played itself out in my view in that it was a sign price was likely to head higher which indeed it did and then reversed at weekly/daily...
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