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EUR/CHF

  • #101
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:17pm Jan 21, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting dual-c
That's my feeling to, but we'll have to wait and see. I think SNb wants as many people shorting this pair as possible so they can make the most out of intervening. I read in an article that SNB made huge profits last year on gold. If that's the case, they definitely have the deep pockets to intervene.
Central banks have an infinite amount of money to intervene. So far they've spent over $40B intervening. I'm paying close attention to 1.4650. I'm pretty sure we'll see an intervention to prevent this pair from going below 1.46 region.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #102
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:19pm Jan 21, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting jackdan
1.4650 on the sight. I read about a lot of poeple from centro european countries that may not be able to pay their mortgage back because they
made it in chf at low interest.

The lower we go, the closer we are from snb intervention, and, i also believe, the lower we go, the stronger they will intervene.

Let's see.... My poll: 1.4600 up to 1.5300 .... Like they did last year.but, last year, was from 1.4555 to 1.5450
I don't think we'll see the SNB intervene to bring EURCHF up 700 pips. The fact of the matter is that a ton more people are bid EURCHF now then back then with expectations of SNB internvention. But yea, I'm targeting above 1.50 soon as intervention will build up a base near this region.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #103
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:21pm Jan 21, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Central banks have an infinite amount of money to intervene. So far they've spent over $40B intervening. I'm paying close attention to 1.4650. I'm pretty sure we'll see an intervention to prevent this pair from going below 1.46 region.
Ya, the Swiss especially have some serious deep pockets to do this sort of thing. I hope you're right about 1.46 area being the final straw.
  • #104
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:46am Jan 22, 2010 2:46am
I just want to recover from my big drawdown of many long positions.
I need it reach 1.5100 again to close the positions.

How you guys think How likely it will be ??
If it is most likely that it will go up, I will have confidence to add fund to keep my account from margin call if the pair go lower.
  • #105
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:53am Jan 22, 2010 2:53am
Quoting rahulkghosh
I don't think we'll see the SNB intervene to bring EURCHF up 700 pips. The fact of the matter is that a ton more people are bid EURCHF now then back then with expectations of SNB internvention. But yea, I'm targeting above 1.50 soon as intervention will build up a base near this region.
Hmmm. How does this sound? Price gets to a low where SNB wish to support the Euro. They buy Euros in quantity and EUR/CHF picks up all our buy stops on the way up, gaining momentum all the way. Do you think it happens like that?

As a postscript I would add that when I typed "buy Euros in quantity" I got a kind of sick feeling which may explain why they haven't intervened yet.
Gone to a better place
  • #106
  • Edited 4:11am Jan 22, 2010 3:48am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting smikester

As a postscript I would add that when I typed "buy Euros in quantity" I got a kind of sick feeling which may explain why they haven't intervened yet.

Some of my accounts are in USD, and i have a kind of sick feeling thinking about it too. Honestly, Yen, Usd aren't my favorite. Euro may have problems with Greece, spain, portugal and Ireland, but the Usd has problem with California, and that state is more than the 4 before mentioned, and also, the european external debt has nothing to do with the American situation. Remember they issued more than a Trillion usd to solve the problem last year. A column of greenbacks, worth 1000 each, of that trillion, would overtake in hight the international space station.

Yes indeed, i feel sick when i think i own Usd.



Back to the swissie, what is clear, and if you look back in times you'll see it too, they can not afford to have such a strong currency. They have several ways to make it cheaper, exept one, they can't give less interess. But they have other ways, like, for instance, printing more paper (like the yankees did). Not only the purchase of Euros.

Now, what i do not understand, just now , a new came out abt euro, pretty good new, industrial new order, more thn expected, and eurchf falls. I do not understand it.. Vs the us$, yes, for risk aversion, and also because lately market behave reverse. But Vs the swissie?¿?¿..... Why?
  • #107
  • Jan 22, 2010 8:59am Jan 22, 2010 8:59am
Dunno about intervention but I'm liking this chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100122eurchfh4.gif Size: 23 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #108
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:54pm Jan 22, 2010 2:54pm
so I'm finally out of all my EURCHF shorts today. the scaling out process actually started yesterday on failure to break 4680. my last stop got taken out earlier today around 4740. this turns out to be one of my best trades ever as I discussed in my post -- Closed EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF Shorts: Best. Trade. Ever.I re-entered just now at 1.4739 but with a much smaller size. I know the SNB made another statement today. But I still see selling pressure from the price chart. Now it's just a matter of shorting with a smaller size to be safe. I aren't one to go against the CB.

As I've said many times, I am still practising on demo. Please do your own DD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-01-22-EURCHF_3h.png Size: 54 KB
  • #109
  • Jan 22, 2010 11:54pm Jan 22, 2010 11:54pm
Here's an article from Dow Jones News this week re: SNB: http://www.djnewsplus.com:80/article...ention+Pledge+
  • #110
  • Jan 23, 2010 12:10am Jan 23, 2010 12:10am
Another article: http://www.djnewsplus.com:80/article...ce+At+The+SNB+

I wonder if it is a good thing that a lot of negative news (Greece, Portugal, etc.) is coming from the Eurozone. Could this be causing the Franc to rise faster to the point that SNB will have to intervene? Whereas, if there wasn't any negative news, could SNB still have let EUR/CHF fall below 1.50 and it would be a slower decline? Because if everything was on the path of recovery as SNB would like, a stronger Franc wouldn't hurt them as much. Speculate, that's all one can do with this Forex stuff...lol
  • #111
  • Jan 23, 2010 4:21am Jan 23, 2010 4:21am
Quoting dual-c
Another article: http://www.djnewsplus.com:80/article...ce+At+The+SNB+

I wonder if it is a good thing that a lot of negative news (Greece, Portugal, etc.) is coming from the Eurozone....
Yes, it would be good to see EUR/CHF drop faster. Then the SNB is much more likely to intervene. If we just stick in a 1.47-1.48 range or something, I highly doubt they'll intervene. That's what I'm kinda afraid of, this thing ranging out within these areas for a long time. But as inflationary pressures grow from monetary expansion, a stronger franc won't be as much as a worry. Furthermore, a stronger franc would allow the SNB to keep LIBOR rates lower.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #112
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:06am Jan 23, 2010 10:06am
This is my update chart....but I'm a baby trader
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf1.gif Size: 15 KB


Sorry if my count it's no good.......

bye...
  • #113
  • Jan 24, 2010 1:42am Jan 24, 2010 1:42am
Looks like someone else is looking for SNB intervention soon: http://www.worldcurrencywatch.com/20...r-this-year-2/
  • #114
  • Jan 26, 2010 3:05am Jan 26, 2010 3:05am
Here's another angle on the intervention question. The last few times the SNB has intervened it has been in the face of a falling Dollar so that the Swiss Franc has had strength against a rising Euro and a falling Dollar.

Now we have a situation where the Euro is falling against the Dollar and has much further to go (in my opinion).

So the question is this: Do the Swiss consider Dollar markets (which effectively includes China) to be more valuable than Euro markets. If they do, then intervention is less necessary.

Not what the longs may want to hear (I'm long) but I'm just saying don't hold your breath.
Gone to a better place
  • #115
  • Jan 26, 2010 1:30pm Jan 26, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting smikester
Here's another angle on the intervention question. The last few times the SNB has intervened it has been in the face of a falling Dollar so that the Swiss Franc has had strength against a rising Euro and a falling Dollar.

Now we have a situation where the Euro is falling against the Dollar and has much further to go (in my opinion).

So the question is this: Do the Swiss consider Dollar markets (which effectively includes China) to be more valuable than Euro markets. If they do, then intervention is less necessary.

Not what the longs may want...
Swiss are far more concerned with euro market than dollar markets. Their monetary policy clearly states to prevent excessive appreciation of the swiss franc versus the euro.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #116
  • Jan 27, 2010 10:22am Jan 27, 2010 10:22am
Quoting rahulkghosh
Swiss are far more concerned with euro market than dollar markets. Their monetary policy clearly states to prevent excessive appreciation of the swiss franc versus the euro.
Thank you. Do you know if this policy you quote was made before or after December 3rd 2009 when the Euro reversed against the Dollar? Thanks in anticipation.
Gone to a better place
  • #117
  • Jan 27, 2010 12:03pm Jan 27, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting smikester
Thank you. Do you know if this policy you quote was made before or after December 3rd 2009 when the Euro reversed against the Dollar? Thanks in anticipation.
SNB's report came out Dec. 10th. Read the attached file. They threw the word "excessive" into their statement which told traders "Ahhh, we can short this pair down more!"
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf SNB Monetary policy.pdf   52 KB | 529 downloads
  • #118
  • Jan 27, 2010 1:37pm Jan 27, 2010 1:37pm
Thank you very much.
Gone to a better place
  • #119
  • Jan 28, 2010 3:07pm Jan 28, 2010 3:07pm
We're all waiting for SNB intervention. I'm long @1.47105 and trying to setup a strategy to avoid margin calls.

We know the lower we go, closer we are from snb intervention, but any thoughts about how deep it may drop?
  • #120
  • Jan 29, 2010 5:14am Jan 29, 2010 5:14am
Quoting mkla80
We're all waiting for SNB intervention. I'm long @1.47105 and trying to setup a strategy to avoid margin calls.

We know the lower we go, closer we are from snb intervention, but any thoughts about how deep it may drop?
Lowest it'll go, 1.45 IMHO. However, if we face a massive terrorist attack, or war, this could easily break below 1.4. (okay, I just felt like saying this)
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
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