EUR/CHF

quasi-official and local names (as reported by FXNews on Oanda) are the buyers. Lots of ofers in the 4800 area (big retrace from 4800 as I type). Like I said earlier, if it breaks the 4810 area it will shoot up way more

whoever is selling and making the offers at the 4800 area needs to be shot! I need this thing to go up! lol

hehe, i scalped short for 15 pips at 1.4800

Res.3 at 4785. seems to be holding right under that at the moment

hi there everybody

this is my first post

are we expecting it to rise more i want to buy it but i am afraid that it reached it peak what do u say guys?

Hi, I'm back. Shorted EURCHF @ 1.4776, SL 1.4805 in demo (can't stress that enough).

Here's my chart, trendline bounce + neg. RSI divergence. Plus, the retail long/short ratio is still >75% (my main reason to short).

okay folks... the 10 simple dma has acted as very good support/resistance on the daily chart. 1.4788 is where it has come in on the daily candle. Last nite, it shot thru that thanks in part by some local names buying it up. Right now, it's hanging just below that MA. It's acting as resistance atm, but I believe if this daily candle closes above the 10dma, we could possibly see more upside w/ this pair. How much upside, I'm not sure. My feeling is if it closes above the 10dma, it could get back to the 4850-4900 area and then come down again, unless SNB intervenes, then this pair will shoot up maybe back to 1.50-51 area, but who knows right? the way the local and quasi-buyers bid this pair up last nite, it was very noticeable all the offers waiting at 4800 as it retraced 20-30 pips quickly. Sounds like there are a lot of offers just above the 4800 area, so that itself could possibly keep this pair from going any further. Then it's up to SNB to shoot it thru those barriers, which by btw is what SNB would like to have to get the most bang for their buck. The more sellers in the waiting up above, the more money to be made. If it closes below the 10dma, my hunch is it will head lower possibly to test the low on the 10th, maybe further, but just as SNB spoke up when it was in the lower 4700s, traders may be a bit more cautious as that could have been a hint by Hillenbrand that is the area they don't want to see go any lower.

stopped out for -36 pips, but it didn't break 1.4810, so went back in short, avg price 1.4793 on this paper trade

But to me this pair still seems bearish...

Turning out to be a nice short for you. I took some profit from a long I took at 4750 a couple of days ago. I had a feeling it wouldn't break too far above 4800, so I closed out just under that. If this pair is to go back to the 1.50 area, either SNB will be intervening or there will be more $ from buyers than the local swiss banks who are de-leveraging. Unfortunately on my part, I have a feeling this pair will go down more. I hope then SNB will step in. I gotta get my dd off the board. Been making some profitable trades on other pairs, so I have been removing some of my dd, but still have a ways to go.

Well, another week gone by and no SNB intervention, except the jawboning by Hildebrand earlier in the week. I think if it weren't for him doing that, we would have seen e/c drop further. ATM, it seems like no one wants to short this pair too much more b/c of that. In fact, the SSI as reported by David Rodriguez at DailyFX is showing 13 traders long for every 1 short. The SSI is used as a contrarian indicator meaning one should short this pair b/c of the ratio of long to short positions. If SNB remains quiet this coming week, I think we'll see this drop some more. I think SNB is caught between a rock and a hard place with the negative news coming out of the eurozone re: Greece. I wonder if they were to intervene, how quickly would it drop right back down? I'm surprised that this pair did not drop further down the day Trichet spoke and rumors of Merkel resigning came out. The Euro was hit hard against all other currencies. Thoughts about this pair anybody?

I agree with you. After the Hildebarnd speeking, the CHF started to weekaning against the major currencies:



In the other hand, the EUR has weakened too in this week:



So this resulted a DOJI on EUR/CHF weekly graph. Next week will be very important. We need a bull week candle to change the trend.

I think SNB is working now, but not very agressivly, because EURCHF is the most "bullish" Eur pair now. All other Eur pair are lost a lot pips, while EURCHF not. In the following chart you can see, a push up on every european session start:



I have bigger long packet, and i will try to find some pips with this push ups with a smaller packet.

Another message from Hildebrand again this past weekend re-iterating that SNB will not tolerate "excessive strength" against the Euro. I read an article on Bloomberg by Bo Nielsen saying “The main reason for the SNB’s absence from the foreign-exchange market was that it wants to inject more uncertainty about the timing of its intervention.” and “Any potential intervention from the SNB could prove very effective,” Kasper Kirkegaard, an analyst with Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen, wrote in a note today. “Upside risk on the euro against the franc from a position squeeze has risen significantly.” B/C of the Greece situation, more traders have gone long the Franc against the Euro which would qualify the the 2nd quoted statement above. It shall be interesting to see what happens over the next little while. The pair could make another attempt lower before SNB steps in. I think traders want to test the threshold. I'm ready with a buy stop in case SNB does intervene.

Thanks for that. The pair dropped a dizzying 10+ pips in 1 hour this morning. But I also have buy stops in place. Not serious lots but enough to be interesting. Last time they intervened it was fun. Watch this space.

Lol... how did you do last time SNB intervened?

It was OK I think. Small lots. If you're interested I'll look up how I did it. But basically buy stops with stop losses in place and alarms on MT4.

it's getting interesting now.... below 47 handle today

1.4650 on the sight. I read about a lot of poeple from centro european countries that may not be able to pay their mortgage back because they
made it in chf at low interest.

The lower we go, the closer we are from snb intervention, and, i also believe, the lower we go, the stronger they will intervene.

Let's see.... My poll: 1.4600 up to 1.5300 .... Like they did last year.but, last year, was from 1.4555 to 1.5450

That's my feeling to, but we'll have to wait and see. I think SNb wants as many people shorting this pair as possible so they can make the most out of intervening. I read in an article that SNB made huge profits last year on gold. If that's the case, they definitely have the deep pockets to intervene.

I just read that SNB and some other banks are going to discontinue swapping EURCHF, and the last swap operation will therefore be conducted on 25 January 2010. I'm new in forex market and i would like to know how this going to affect our EURCHF trades? If they won't swap EURCHF what is going to happen to our open trades after Monday?