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  • #61,821
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:14pm Feb 4, 2009 9:14pm
Quoting macockiner2
Please excuse my ignorance, still kinda new to this but wouldn't the market already be reacting to this news, knowing that some kind of cut is in place.

Cheers
they are getting ready. it will probably move down during the london open. the news hasn't happened yet. we are anticipating. we only wait til the event actually happens. then the market big banks will have its say-so.
  • #61,822
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:17pm Feb 4, 2009 9:17pm
short @ 1.2836
  • #61,823
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:19pm Feb 4, 2009 9:19pm
Quoting sed34
they are getting ready. it will probably move down during the london open. the news hasn't happened yet. we are anticipating. we only wait til the event actually happens. then the market big banks will have its say-so.
Thanks for the feedback. If I can ask another question; does it not stand to reason that if the rates are cut lower (especially as low as they are) would it not be a buyers market? Knowing that when the rates go back up there's money to be made now selling at the higher interest rates?

Cheers
  • #61,824
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:20pm Feb 4, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting CAnthonyMVE
short @ 1.2836
good luck. i'd also set a tight SL.
  • #61,825
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:23pm Feb 4, 2009 9:23pm
Quoting PipPipPip
good luck. i'd also set a tight SL.

i take it your routing for bulls???
  • #61,826
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:24pm Feb 4, 2009 9:24pm
[US]New administration also tightening their belts on financial firms. Firms now are not allowed to give bonuses above $500,000. Obama is setting rules for the citizens to receive tax refunds, and an improvement from financial firms to help restructure the market standards before firms receive any further help. This can be bad for the US, however, if US worsens, euro will be impacted as well.
  • #61,827
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:24pm Feb 4, 2009 9:24pm
Quoting ak4x
OMG!! It's come to that now, has it?

And all this time, I thought Cesar's "Stop Profit, Take Loss" strategy was the HoleyGrail... Now we all need is an indicator...
That's some funny $h!t right there mate
Not all sins are created equal
  • #61,828
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:25pm Feb 4, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting CAnthonyMVE
i take it your routing for bulls???
i plan to enter short once a breakout of 2805. My bears are more cute than my bulls.
  • #61,829
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:27pm Feb 4, 2009 9:27pm
Quoting PipPipPip
i plan to enter short once a breakout of 2805. i love my bears more than i love my bulls.

osunds good well im off to the gym good luck to all of us keep posting so i can read when i get back
  • #61,830
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:28pm Feb 4, 2009 9:28pm
Quoting CAnthonyMVE
osunds good well im off to the gym good luck to all of us keep posting so i can read when i get back
hehe, wise move. wipe off the stress from the gut.
  • #61,831
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:29pm Feb 4, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting macockiner2
Thanks for the feedback. If I can ask another question; does it not stand to reason that if the rates are cut lower (especially as low as they are) would it not be a buyers market? Knowing that when the rates go back up there's money to be made now selling at the higher interest rates?

Cheers
when rates for a currency go lower. they are less attractive. it doesn't make sense to buy a currency with a lower interest rate. that's why you short most of the time. you get out of the market before your trade goes against you and you currency is worth less money. now of course this is being very simplistic.
  • #61,832
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:34pm Feb 4, 2009 9:34pm
Quoting sed34
when rates for a currency go lower. they are less attractive. it doesn't make sense to buy a currency with a lower interest rate. that's why you short most of the time. you get out of the market before your trade goes against you and you currency is worth less money. now of course this is being very simplistic.
However, on October 12-24th, before the US cut its benchmark rate to 0-.25%, Euros were strengthening before the rate was actually cut. May you explain why the market rates are contradicting you than?
  • #61,833
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:44pm Feb 4, 2009 9:44pm
The Feb [ECB] rate decision at 12.45GMT should be a non-event if Pres Trichet sticks to his guns, and unless of course the market forces his hand as it did in Jan, though that meeting was preceded by very poor data. This time round the non-committal ECB seems to have a Mar cut pencilled, with Trichet saying that is 'the important month'. The apparent stabilisation - or at least a deceleration in the pace of decline - in the data plays well for this month's rate decision. Also, two important reports argue in favour of a cut next month rather than this, namely the key quarterly credit survey and the Staff's economic projections. On the latter, the numbers will undoubtedly be revised from Dec's f/c, which foresaw a contraction in growth of 0.5% in 2009 and a recovery to +1.0% in 2010. Given recent data, the 2009 numbers look optimistic at best and in all likelihood will be downgraded sharply.

Today's [BoE/MPC] decision at 12.00GMT is a done deal as far as we, and the market (SONIAS) are concerned. The widely discounted 50bp cut would leave the UK Bank rate at 1.0% with the MPC perhaps signalling that it will pause in Mar to take stock of the 350bp worth of easing since last Jul and the possibility of another fiscal package to be announced in the Budget (might be postponed to Apr 2 from Mar). Recall, the Jan minutes also talked of substantial stimulus in the pipeline. Meanwhile, Thur's decision will reflect the BoE's latest quarterly Inflation Report (IR) f/cs (out on Feb 11) and will take into account recent outturns in data/surveys. Note, Nov's IR f/c Q4 GDP at -0.8% vs -1.5% prelim, with f/c at 4.2% vs 3.9%). Crucially, Stg is some 13% lower since Nov, but given bigger disinflationary forces at play, we expect the Bank to flag its QE scheme even if it signal further rate cuts ahead.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,834
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:47pm Feb 4, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting PipPipPip
[US]New administration also tightening their belts on financial firms. Firms now are not allowed to give bonuses above $500,000. Obama is setting rules for the citizens to receive tax refunds, and an improvement from financial firms to help restructure the market standards before firms receive any further help. This can be bad for the US, however, if US worsens, euro will be impacted as well.
yep because all the ceo's that screwed it up here are gonna get a job with your screwed up banks.. that makes you double screwed... maybe you should ask for a kiss first.. you may not feel so bad after the deed..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,835
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:48pm Feb 4, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting sed34
when rates for a currency go lower. they are less attractive. it doesn't make sense to buy a currency with a lower interest rate. that's why you short most of the time. you get out of the market before your trade goes against you and you currency is worth less money. now of course this is being very simplistic.
Yes that makes sense but in a recent book i read they stated this;

Cause: Interest rates go up, and as a result the cost to borrow money increases. When the cost of borrowing money goes up, fewer people will be interested in borrowing money.

Effect: The demand for the currency will go down, and fewer people will buy the currency creating a weaker currency.

I guess they're stating it all boils down to supply and demand.

I would love your feedback to this,

Thanks
  • #61,836
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:51pm Feb 4, 2009 9:51pm
As a vegetarian, I'm getting nauseated looking at the fight right now.
  • #61,837
  • Feb 4, 2009 9:53pm Feb 4, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
The Feb [ECB] rate decision at 12.45GMT should be a non-event if Pres Trichet sticks to his guns, and unless of course the market forces his hand as it did in Jan, though that meeting was preceded by very poor data. This time round the non-committal ECB seems to have a Mar cut pencilled, with Trichet saying that is 'the important month'. The apparent stabilisation - or at least a deceleration in the pace of decline - in the data plays well for this month's rate decision. Also, two important reports argue in favour of a cut next month rather than...
Nice historical story, hope it will help you to trade forex market
  • #61,838
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:01pm Feb 4, 2009 10:01pm
na im out.. eur in the middle of a trendline.. and other trades id like to be in already have entry set. nothing for me to do except maybe find a scalp.. but regardless news does build smaller charts..and smaller ones build the bigger ones..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #61,839
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:02pm Feb 4, 2009 10:02pm
Anyone wanna to earn 1000 pips ?
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  • #61,840
  • Feb 4, 2009 10:04pm Feb 4, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting sed34
when rates for a currency go lower. they are less attractive. it doesn't make sense to buy a currency with a lower interest rate.
But of course one must grant an exception for the 2 or 3 cheapest currencies out there right now, the Yen and USD, which seem to be in some demand atm..

Add the swissy in there and you can't get a full 1% out of the bunch... compared to oh.. just about anybody

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...t-rates-table/
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FUBAR...
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