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EURUSD

  • #16,801
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:09am Jul 30, 2008 2:09am
should be stronger than this
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,802
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:10am Jul 30, 2008 2:10am
Quoting FXCapitalist
Broken Channel/down.
Hmm.. I thought we were trading pa rather than rsi, and the pa lower trendline of yours is not parallel plus why would you cut out the lows? In short, mine's as whole as it can be passing at lower 55s and parallel the upper. Watch 5600, looks like the long express is about to leave, already 30+ pips in the green.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,803
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:14am Jul 30, 2008 2:14am
might've jumped in on the eur/usd short train a bit early at 1.5580...
  • #16,804
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:18am Jul 30, 2008 2:18am
short @ 1.5595
SL @1.5615
TP @ 1.54XX
...........
Happy tradding all...
  • #16,805
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:22am Jul 30, 2008 2:22am
The market is expectig good news on Thursday and Friday. Briefing.com is estimatig a 2.8% GDP anualized growth in Q2 and only -55k in NFP. I think the rally in equities will continue and this will put pressure on EURUSD.

So I see only a short term bounce up today in EURUSD and than back bellow 1,5550. It migh get as low as 1,54 before Friday morning. And after that perhaps we will see some profit taking ahead of the week-end and with that another bounce up till 1,55+
  • #16,806
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:25am Jul 30, 2008 2:25am
Quoting FXCapitalist
Short. Don't follow me though, trade your own ways. I'm just doing what I'm doing.



gratiae
I,m in SHORT too......
TQ...fxcap...
  • #16,807
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:26am Jul 30, 2008 2:26am
lol This reminds me the start of the week when I was saying it should drop hard towards daily 100 ema but 90% were all bullish, now it's all bearish spirit. Of course I could be wrong, had been often anough, but there are just too many factors I see to stop any drop below low 55s now.. Good luck to all anyway.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,808
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:26am Jul 30, 2008 2:26am
Quoting Angelina
short @ 1.5595
SL @1.5615
TP @ 1.54XX
...........
Happy tradding all...
HAPPY TRADING TO YOU ANGELINA..!
  • #16,809
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:27am Jul 30, 2008 2:27am
Quoting Jurrasic
Hmm.. I thought we were trading pa rather than rsi, and the pa lower trendline of yours is not parallel plus why would you cut out the lows? In short, mine's as whole as it can be passing at lower 55s and parallel the upper. Watch 5600, looks like the long express is about to leave, already 30+ pips in the green.
that trend line isnt correlated to the RSI's channel
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,810
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:27am Jul 30, 2008 2:27am
Quoting Jurrasic
lol This reminds me the start of the week when I was saying it should drop hard towards daily 100 ema but 90% were all bullish, now it's all bearish spirit. Of course I could be wrong, had been often anough, but there are just too many factors I see to stop any drop below low 55s now.. Good luck to all anyway.
agree, if the market "expects" good USD data later this week, then it's already reflected in the price.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #16,811
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:27am Jul 30, 2008 2:27am
Looks like Jurassic and I will be taking some of FxCapitalist's capital.

Also holding a fairly large short UJ position - this flight is about to depart and the destination is Safety.
  • #16,812
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:28am Jul 30, 2008 2:28am
I'm placing my sell limit orders @ 1.5633,, s/l 15 pips above
  • #16,813
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:29am Jul 30, 2008 2:29am
Quoting Subdude
Looks like Jurassic and I will be taking some of FxCapitalist's capital.

Also holding a fairly large short UJ position - this flight is about to depart and the destination is Safety.
short swissy is a better risk:reward IMHO right now.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #16,814
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:29am Jul 30, 2008 2:29am
For the moment, till some buddies at 1.5680/30 provide some good resistance.


cheers
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16,815
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:32am Jul 30, 2008 2:32am
Quoting cgldsmth
agree, if the market "expects" good USD data later this week, then it's already reflected in the price.
Why would it, US employment numbers ussualy suck and I remember last week's lower than expected employment number. I believe the forecasts are too optimistic.

EDIT: Just need EJ to cross 50 up now and all 3 longs on EU, GU, EJ should make good pips.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,816
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:36am Jul 30, 2008 2:36am
EUR/USD: Market Suggests U.S Bad News Factored, We Have Doubts. London, July 30. Seems like we have been here so many times before you think the market would learn. There is clearly an air of optimism over the Dollar"s fate following yesterday"s rebound in U.S consumer confidence and the resulting rally in U.S stocks and all of a sudden the bad news emanating from the States has been fully factored. Granted the stars appear to be better aligned with oil coming clear off its record highs and fresh associated optimism over inflation. However, nobody wants to be the last to trade into a more sustained Dollar recovery and as such the positive vibes are now reverberating around the broader market to the point where potential bad news is being discounted. Note we still have U.S GDP and the labour report to come this week and the banking world remains as fragile as ever.
EUR/USD sank to 1.5555 last session having peaked at 1.5770 the day before. Early Wednesday price action suggests the market is not totally convinced of the Dollar"s newfound popularity and that Tuesday"s performance might bring a bout of consolidation at best or even a tentative recovery in the EUR today. We see risk of a gradual climb back to the 100-day MA line, today at 1.5665, but favour consolidation between 1.5560 and 1.5620.
Fools Rushing
  • #16,817
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:36am Jul 30, 2008 2:36am
Quoting FXCapitalist
For the moment, till some buddies at 1.5680/30 provide some good resistance.


cheers
Cool, I'll be looking to exit closer below 5680, and watch 650. 630 I believe won't be a problem.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,818
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:37am Jul 30, 2008 2:37am
Quoting Jurrasic
Why would it, US employment numbers ussualy suck and I remember last week's lower than expected employment number. I believe the forecasts are too optimistic.
Yeah, I think last Friday was more of a freak accident - an exception to the rule. The boost to the dollar has lately been coming mostly from the Fed's officials and Paulson and a few bear market rallies on oil.
  • #16,819
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:37am Jul 30, 2008 2:37am
yes but that's the difference between "surprise" and "expectation". The latter should be priced in already. I agree, and expect!, a downside USD surprise as you say...
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #16,820
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:44am Jul 30, 2008 2:44am
Quoting Jurrasic
Cool, I'll be looking to exit closer below 5680, and watch 650. 630 I believe won't be a problem.
forsure man Risk management you know how we do it.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
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