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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #724,261
  • Jan 29, 2023 3:26am Jan 29, 2023 3:26am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Hello sir, I love for you to use your hand to prove yourself wrong. For the next 5 trading days, kindly post the screenshot of a H1 chart of GBPUSD with Bollinger bands on it. Band setting Period 24 Deviation 3 Applied to : close Shift : zero Let's see how often it envelopes each day's trading range. Do you accept this challenge?
Just because you observe that a specified statistic appears to behave "as expected" does not demonstrate that it is STATISTICALLY VALID. That is trying to make the case of using this observation to demonstrate that your data is from a population for which the specified statics IS valid. This in an incorrect approach. If you wish to apply a statistic that is valid for a population that is both stationary and normally distributed, then you must have STATISTICAL EVIDENCE that supports the population meeting these two criteria. Otherwise, your calculated statistic has no valid statistical meaning at all, and can be used only as a curious observation that you have found useful.

And as I have stated before, the fact that financial time series are already proven to be non-stationary, your use of the standard deviation in the manner stated has no statistical meaning.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #724,262
  • Jan 29, 2023 3:34am Jan 29, 2023 3:34am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Just because you observe that a specified statistic appears to behave "as expected" does not demonstrate that it is STATISTICALLY VALID. That is trying to make the case of using this observation to demonstrate that your data is from a population for which the specified statics IS valid. This in an incorrect approach. If you wish to apply a statistic that is valid for a population that is both stationary and normally distributed, then you must have STATISTICAL EVIDENCE that supports the population meeting these two criteria. Otherwise, your...
Your point is perfectly understood sir.
Thanks so much for enlightening me.
I have learnt something new from both you and wolfram's posts.
Thanks again sir.
  • #724,263
  • Jan 29, 2023 3:38am Jan 29, 2023 3:38am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} - David Thomson Daily range distribution since October 2000. (5580 data points) Mean: 0.0066. St.dev: 0.0059 Median: 0.005 max: 0.0552 {image} Following plot shows CDF of data agains CDF of a Normal distribution[.0066, .0059]{image} So it's scewed and non-stationary (I'll just skip those details) ... Daily range extension is a useful technique. But taking mean+3 deviations is pointles, let's just take max value and +/- to daily open...
Thanks for pointing out my error to me.
I apologise for misunderstanding your intention. .
I have learnt from both you and DrDave.
I am grateful sir.
  • #724,264
  • Jan 29, 2023 3:49am Jan 29, 2023 3:49am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Thanks for pointing out my error to me. I apologise for misunderstanding your intention. . I have learnt from both you and DrDave. I am grateful sir.
Unfortunately, misapplication of statistical measures is rampant. In my experience, even undergradutes that have taken courses in statistics fail to undrstand that before attempting to apply any descriptive statistics to a data set, FIRST, determine its stationarity, then determine how it is distributed. After that, choose a descriptive statistic that is valid for your data. Unfortunately, essentially no one bothers to make the first two determinations and simply blindly applies to his unknown data type statistical measures that are valid for stationary, normally distributed data.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #724,265
  • Jan 29, 2023 3:53am Jan 29, 2023 3:53am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Entry@ 1.2378. HUUUGE entry too! Market open anything below the round number is okay by me. I'll gladly take loss and move on. But then again these brokers can set wild ass spreads of up to 15 pips sometimes!!
hi mate, there is a big chance that we can see a spike up (or down ) on opening that is due to the crazy spreads on Sunday night (uk time) the weekend gap is all but closed.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #724,266
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:02am Jan 29, 2023 4:02am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Unfortunately, misapplication of statistical measures is rampant. In my experience, even undergradutes that have taken courses in statistics fail to undrstand that before attempting to apply any descriptive statistics to a data set, FIRST, determine its stationarity, then determine how it is distributed. After that, choose a descriptive statistic that is valid for your data. Unfortunately, essentially no one bothers to make the first two determinations and simply blindly applies to his unknown data type statistical measures that are valid...
Now I understand the sequence of checks to be done.
May I ask which type of statistical measure works best for the financial time series?
  • #724,267
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:09am Jan 29, 2023 4:09am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} hi mate, there is a big chance that we can see a spike up (or down ) on opening that is due to the crazy spreads on Sunday night (uk time) the weekend gap is all but closed.
Hey man,
According to...? All the live quotes I'm seeing have price in the 80s, which is right around where we closed on Friday.
I do agree with you though that the spreads might make for a horror show but only for BEARS.
Fingers crossed
  • #724,268
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:27am Jan 29, 2023 4:27am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} To the extent that this recession is the result of Biden's USA/Ukraine war with Russia, it is an engineered global recession, on this point, I completely agree. Identifying which currencies will do well in a recession gets a bit more challenging because of new global dynamics. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China and recently South Africa) trading throws in a curve. While they might not control the largest portion of the global economy, they do represent most of the population with their influence in Asia, Africa and South America! When...
I heard about BRICS yeah and you have a point. This could be the biggest hit on USD. I mean I agree, there is just a lot of shit going on and it's hard to really know the consequence of everything that is currently developing. One other thing is, almost all of the people are beginning to realize that it's not really Russia vs Ukraine only, rather America vs Russia. We also don't know what's going to happen if America "officially" enters the war against Russia. We also have Baerbock and she said that Germany is at war with Russia, however some sources say that she didn't mean it like that and will probably lose her job because of that, we'll see. If US goverment does the same story with China then I think we will have an official World War 3 (in my opinion).

While we can again both agree that talking about this stuff is useful in some way, for trading however it is actually more harmful than beneficial. I don't know if even position traders think about these things, maybe.
  • #724,269
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:35am Jan 29, 2023 4:35am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} I heard about BRICS yeah and you have a point. This could be the biggest hit on USD. I mean I agree, there is just a lot of shit going on and it's hard to really know the consequence of everything that is currently developing. One other thing is, almost all of the people are beginning to realize that it's not really Russia vs Ukraine only, rather America vs Russia. We also don't know what's going to happen if America "officially" enters the war against Russia. We also have Baerbock and she said that Germany is at war with Russia, however...
The sad detail is that it isn't just the US, they have dragged the EU into this war and the damage to the EU economy is greater than the damage to the US economy. Look at the businesses leaving the EU for the US. Did you see Dementia Joe bragging about bringing companies to the US to help grow the US economy and create new jobs in the US last week? Really sick shit this.
  • #724,270
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:38am Jan 29, 2023 4:38am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Hey man, According to...? All the live quotes I'm seeing have price in the 80s, which is right around where we closed on Friday. I do agree with you though that the spreads might make for a horror show but only for BEARS. Fingers crossed
it was that but a quick check on IG is showing the below
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Insane in the Brain..
  • #724,271
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:44am Jan 29, 2023 4:44am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} SnailFX, I'm not the brightest crayon in the box and I think I learned EW well enough to serve my purposes (finding support/resistance and projections for my targets). Without false modesty, I say that last year major player in EW analysis offered me a part-time job. I think that every TA is subjective, so EW is no different. Asking five traders will result in five different analysis. If among those five traders is @fontu and me the statement is not true... We have a very high ratio of agreement. It took me some years to realize...
More than helpful! Thanks Coreg!
You can rest now, I won't bother you anymore haha!

You provided a lot of useful info and really took your time to explain, so thanks!
Now, it's actually the time to dive in and go to work.
  • #724,272
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:47am Jan 29, 2023 4:47am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Entry@ 1.2378. HUUUGE entry too! Market open anything below the round number is okay by me. I'll gladly take loss and move on. But then again these brokers can set wild ass spreads of up to 15 pips sometimes!!
Spreads on the market open can go higher than 15 pips! In GU I have seen 200 pts! It varies across pairs a great deal as well.
  • #724,273
  • Jan 29, 2023 4:58am Jan 29, 2023 4:58am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} it was that but a quick check on IG is showing the below {image}
IG's weekend Cable rate has no impact on the real Cable rate. It is simply a gauge of (retail) traders' guesses as to how the real Cable would perform.

In other words, it is nothing more than a casino.
  • #724,274
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:03am Jan 29, 2023 5:03am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Spreads on the market open can go higher than 15 pips! In GU I have seen 200 pts! It varies across pairs a great deal as well.
200?? Hahaa
Surely what you meant really is 20.
But 200? Right.
  • #724,275
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:04am Jan 29, 2023 5:04am
Quoting Elknit
{quote} IG's weekend Cable rate has no impact on the real Cable rate. It is simply a gauge of (retail) traders' guesses as to how the real Cable would perform. In other words, it is nothing more than a casino.
Oh wow that would make sense.
Mind sharing how you got to know this pls?
  • #724,276
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:09am Jan 29, 2023 5:09am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Oh wow that would make sense. Mind sharing how you got to know this pls?
Well, quite simply, the market isn't open.
  • #724,277
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:10am Jan 29, 2023 5:10am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} 200?? Hahaa Surely what you meant really is 20. But 200? Right.
200 pts = 200 points = 20 pips.
  • #724,278
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:20am Jan 29, 2023 5:20am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Now I understand the sequence of checks to be done. May I ask which type of statistical measure works best for the financial time series?
What is typically done is to transform the nonstationary data to stationary. The dataset is usually small enough that it behaves as though it is normally distributed. So then you can apply the usual statistical measures for data that is normally distributed and stationary.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #724,279
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:23am Jan 29, 2023 5:23am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Hey man, According to...? All the live quotes I'm seeing have price in the 80s, which is right around where we closed on Friday. I do agree with you though that the spreads might make for a horror show but only for BEARS. Fingers crossed
do not rush to close your trade, the daily direction is sideway and the range getting lower.
we already at OB(over bought) without breaking previous day highs, even if it spike to the upside a little the resistance is there.
Mondays are slow most of the time so no rallies expected, wait until you get OS(oversold), if it break previous day lows then good for you, if not take whatever profit you get.

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cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #724,280
  • Jan 29, 2023 5:42am Jan 29, 2023 5:42am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} The sad detail is that it isn't just the US, they have dragged the EU into this war and the damage to the EU economy is greater than the damage to the US economy. Look at the businesses leaving the EU for the US. Did you see Dementia Joe bragging about bringing companies to the US to help grow the US economy and create new jobs in the US last week? Really sick shit this.
GRAND SCALE (since you mentioned sick shit)

I no longer think that people who possess everything are actually people. Normal (real) people don't think of wars, rather how to improve the life for both themselves and others around them without doing anything that's wrong in the process. This is why we have wars, hunger and other bad things constantly going on.
I am not that stupid to buy the story that something can't be done because of a, b or c.

Now, the USA. Unfortunately for America, and the world consequentually, John F. Kennedy was the last real president.

When you have a president talking about corrupt evil powers in the background that want to control everything and everyone and he get's killed not long after casting a light on this dark subject, you know what that means.

It means we have some really bad-ass psychopats doing all the shit in the background destroying everything and they are feeling great about it.

Until the cancer is cured, people will watch the same movie 50 years from now, 200 years from now, forever.

To make this story short, unless the big amount of real people on this planet start to eliminate unintelligent, uncapable, ugly 1% that are controlling everything, future will then look like history, what once was, shall be again. They say history repeats itself, until it's learned right?
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EU has suffered yeah, but! It's always the pawns you sacrifice in a chess game, pieces very rarely, only after the pawns. EU is pieces. I think we know who the Queen and King is and they're both united.
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