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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #724,181
  • Jan 28, 2023 5:55am Jan 28, 2023 5:55am
Quoting fontu
looks here bull better get the target than correction immaturely , that is not before 2666. take care {image}
What does this projection look like on a monthly basis?
  • #724,182
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:08am Jan 28, 2023 6:08am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I will be on the side of amazed if the FED actually reduces by only 25 BP. The FED has very clearly stated its goal is to get annualized inflation down to 2%. Nothing in the economy suggests that annualized inflation is anywhere close to 2% yet. At best it is more than double that. In its meetings the FED spoke about reducing the rate of increases to 50 BP because inflation was trending down, they also stated that they expected rate increases throughout 2023 and set a target year-end rate. So are there any signs that inflation has moved...
What I was reading the problem for Fed to raise rates drasticly higher will increase repayment of debt interest, which is already at the top.
I would think modest 0.25bps is ok across 4 quarters in 2023.

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  • #724,183
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:13am Jan 28, 2023 6:13am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} What I was reading the problem for Fed to raise rates drasticly higher will increase repayment of debt interest, which is already at the top. I would think modest 0.25bps is ok across 4 quarters in 2023. {image}
What does the FED care about debt repayment? What does the US Gov't care about debt repayment? You have to be financially responsible to care about that type of thing and clearly neither of these groups falls into that category!
  • #724,184
  • Edited 6:32am Jan 28, 2023 6:17am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} What does this projection look like on a monthly basis?
if breaks up 2446 and hold , then minimum projection goes to 2950 levels , may up towards limit 3161 and breaks in present or 2nd leg if any correction possible before the target 2666. next week there can be a turmoil as seen in eu and usdx or if abandon any correction attempt as signaling gu may continue of what doing before uninterrupted ! lowest projection target for greatest disaster if happen next , say war consequences! hypothetical , otherwise may burst up 4150 to 5270 levels. anyway I for big bears for gu for since 2007! lets see
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #724,185
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:24am Jan 28, 2023 6:24am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} What does the FED care about debt repayment? What does the US Gov't care about debt repayment? You have to be financially responsible to care about that type of thing and clearly neither of these groups falls into that category!
They care this time, mistakes were made after pandemic, desswhy is hard for them to agree. As soon inflation is lowered rate rise is good to go ahead.
Also recession is round the corner, not an easy job here.
  • #724,186
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:06am Jan 28, 2023 7:06am
intermediate term usdx
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #724,187
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:22am Jan 28, 2023 7:22am
Anyone ever used perfect ratio on the chart?
Fontu reminded me of that with his circle on the chart.
  • #724,188
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:35am Jan 28, 2023 7:35am
Quoting fontu
intermediate term usdx {image}
96 ha? I can see that happening.
What makes you think DXY could fall to 80 though?
  • #724,189
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:02am Jan 28, 2023 8:02am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} What does the FED care about debt repayment? What does the US Gov't care about debt repayment? You have to be financially responsible to care about that type of thing and clearly neither of these groups falls into that category!
I think we can agree that everything that happens is planned ahead right?

If they are engineering a recession then there is a "good" goal behind it. Be it digital currencies or what not.

If they want a recession they will get their recession. Now that we know what their aim is, we should also plan accordingly and prepare to start selling currencies that do badly in a recession (namely Pound) and buy currencies that do well in a recession (US Dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen). As are banks getting ready to take the best prices, so should we.

These institutions don't serve us, the people. They are neither controlled by the people we think are in control.

We all know who controls pretty much everything around us, some people just don't like the feeling that they are being controlled, so they deny everything, for it's been said: it's easier to fool people than it is to convince them that they have been fooled, or are being fooled".

"I wonder though, how many times has a trader taken a trade based on the predictions, also how many times have that trade been successful?" - TW
I like it!
  • #724,190
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:03am Jan 28, 2023 8:03am
I found the key and it is on the monthly time frame.... Next month candle will end bearish...

Watch out...
My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #724,191
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:05am Jan 28, 2023 8:05am
Quoting BigNumbers
I found the key and it is on the monthly time frame.... Next month candle will end bearish... Watch out...
I agree. Bearish pin bar.
  • #724,192
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:11am Jan 28, 2023 8:11am
Given the fully price in 25bps,
we can see USD buy (USD short Taking profit on rate release) and the focus move towards statement which I guess the play will be between another 25bps hike on 22th March or keep rate at 4.75% (assuming FED deliver the 25bps on Feb 1)?
Either way weakness for USD
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #724,193
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:25am Jan 28, 2023 8:25am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} 96 ha? I can see that happening. What makes you think DXY could fall to 80 though?
if any impulse wave up here in usdx ? no all corrective , even last leg up failed react at limit to impulse , corrective now again and so a top failure in place now may abc down , so likely channel button 95 and next breakout too ultimately towards previous low real bull failure at 89.16 and breaks again to go further down other srs till the bottom to ready to bull next again. so 95 and 89 to stop or at least range to stop great recession and when in place they likely through war in any place globally , and now already in it , so disaster likely next happening , big and biggest in our known history possible !! or i to surrender this time .lets see what ? may legs little bigger or smaller in the PA! take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #724,194
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:36am Jan 28, 2023 8:36am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} How long did it take you to learn Elliott Waves? Many people are saying learning Elliott Waves is among the most difficult subjects to learn and takes a really long time before someone even learns it properly let alone mastering it. Some people also say it's very subjective. Asking five traders will result in five different analysis.
SnailFX, I'm not the brightest crayon in the box and I think I learned EW well enough to serve my purposes (finding support/resistance and projections for my targets). Without false modesty, I say that last year major player in EW analysis offered me a part-time job.
I think that every TA is subjective, so EW is no different.
Asking five traders will result in five different analysis.
If among those five traders is @fontu and me the statement is not true... We have a very high ratio of agreement.
It took me some years to realize that obsession with labeling every move on the chart is pointless. Now, I only focus on finding 12345 and ABC patterns. If you recognize when market is in an impulse or correction faze you should do good in your trading. Sure, from time to time I'm wrong and have to adjust my view especially when complex correction is not over but I don't expect to be perfect. If I may give you advice: keep it simple (I know that free advice is considered by some people worthless, but you may cut the learning curve by listening) stay with 3 basic rules, and recognize corrections (overlapping sections).
You need to ask yourself only one question when doing TA based on EW. At what point in the scheme is the market atm?
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Look for the 3 corrective patterns (top 3) and recognize the bottom 3
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This link may be helpful to KIS.https://www.tradingfives.com/article...wave-guide.htm
Good luck.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #724,195
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:51am Jan 28, 2023 8:51am
Quoting Fardeen1209
Given the fully price in 25bps, we can see USD buy (USD short Taking profit on rate release) and the focus move towards statement which I guess the play will be between another 25bps hike on 22th March or keep rate at 4.75% (assuming FED deliver the 25bps on Feb 1)? Either way weakness for USD
yes my friend this is good, I say USD weakness is just beginning. Feds will very likely do 25 bps, unless something happens to trigger inflation such as supply shock. I don’t see any reason for anything besides 25 bps. I even see them doing so for all 4 quarters, again this is too early to say. Q1 2023 USA gdp data most likely print red. Usd weakness is just beginning . Just my analysis. Things change quickly so gotta keep up with market
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #724,196
  • Jan 28, 2023 9:11am Jan 28, 2023 9:11am
Quoting BigNumbers
I found the key and it is on the monthly time frame.... Next month candle will end bearish... Watch out...
Why so ? im SHORT also but would love to know your reason why...
  • #724,197
  • Jan 28, 2023 9:19am Jan 28, 2023 9:19am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} They care this time, mistakes were made after pandemic, desswhy is hard for them to agree. As soon inflation is lowered rate rise is good to go ahead. Also recession is round the corner, not an easy job here.
Jolita, you may be correct however history does not support this point of view. To date, the US gov't simply expands the money supply every time they run out. During the pandemic, they used the money printing option and come out pretending that they were concerned about the ballooning debt. So while the FED is paying lip service to the notion of pulling liquidity from the market at the same time they print more!
  • #724,198
  • Edited 10:53am Jan 28, 2023 9:20am | Edited 10:53am
octaves 1.2000 - 1.2500
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octaves 1.2250 - 1.2500
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octaves 1.2250 - 1.2450
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what you see...

"what u see Trading From:Qikiqtaaluk Region Nunavut, Canada" xxx " how is good they Cough up eneuf bs in DC with their all seeing eye "

folks bin 8 weeks posting since Nov 24, 2022 time for some R&R enjoy life... see u in a few months...
  • #724,199
  • Edited 10:46am Jan 28, 2023 9:31am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} I think we can agree that everything that happens is planned ahead right? If they are engineering a recession then there is a "good" goal behind it. Be it digital currencies or what not. If they want a recession they will get their recession. Now that we know what their aim is, we should also plan accordingly and prepare to start selling currencies that do badly in a recession (namely Pound) and buy currencies that do well in a recession (US Dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen). As are banks getting ready to take the best prices, so should...
To the extent that this recession is the result of Biden's USA/Ukraine war with Russia, it is an engineered global recession, on this point, I completely agree. Identifying which currencies will do well in a recession gets a bit more challenging because of new global dynamics.
The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China and recently South Africa) trading throws in a curve. While they might not control the largest portion of the global economy, they do represent most of the population with their influence in Asia, Africa and South America!
When the US government seized bank accounts of people who were from Russia even if they had given up Russian citizenship, they caused global concern about the reliability of the US dollar. What is to stop the US government from seizing other bank accounts as well? Chinese citizens or former Chinese citizens, who look at China and Taiwan, what happens to their bank accounts as this conflict expands?
More and more countries look at the exploding US debt levels and question the reliability of the US Peso! This has caused strength in the Euro, the Pound and more!
  • #724,200
  • Jan 28, 2023 9:43am Jan 28, 2023 9:43am
Quoting Pat Chiko
I wasn't successful as a Trader right from the get-go. It was a very difficult Journey for me lots of ups and downs. And I struggled like that for many many years. But those were very formative years for me.
most of us that man!

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each day 10%,,,, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1371538
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