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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #724,161
  • Jan 28, 2023 5:44am Jan 28, 2023 5:44am
Quoting W0lfram
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wt7YZv1qi4 {image} March FOMC is more important, it will become clear who is right and who is wrong - the market or the FED. If rates >5%, FED is right...
If Fed raises by 25bps this week, 5% could be the end yeah.

Services below 50 along with Manufacturing are already signs Fed has done enough, by some people more than enough.
We'll see if Manufacturing will continue to decline, if it is I bet the Fed is over pretty soon. Unemployment is also in focus. The moment we get unemployment spike, it's safe to say it's over and soft landing is wishful thinking as was that inflation was transitory.

Hiking cycle -> Pausing cycle -> Recession

Fed's pausing will have an impact on USD, but we'll see for how long since recession is imminent.

I am preparing to catch those nice prices up there before things get real.

Powell will for sure try to remain as hawkish as he can be saying anything to prop up USD. Perhaps that pause is in sight, but Fed may raise rates again later on etc.

I am more worried about Bailey to be honest.
  • #724,162
  • Edited 6:14am Jan 28, 2023 5:52am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The close here on FF is 2393. My broker says 2397. Investing.com says 2399. In any case, I have eaten humble pie many times before. Hahaha... {image}
I guess the quote at close depends on who you ask...
My frigging broker has price at 1.2397 as well, but they usually close about 5mins prior to official market close.
I guess yours did the same. But the last 5mins of the trading week witnessed a fall of at about 10 - 15pips.
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  • #724,163
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:10am Jan 28, 2023 6:10am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} I guess the quote at close depends on who you ask... My frigging broker has price at 1.2397 as well, but they usually close about 5mins prior to official market close. I guess yours did the same. But the last 5mins of the trading week witnessed a fall of at least 15pips.{image} {image}
Pretty much this. My broker (Pepperstone) gave me 1.23961 (I'm on Razor, if you are on Normal account, it may differ).
  • #724,164
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:11am Jan 28, 2023 6:11am
Quoting pipcenturion
Georginson, I am thinking about your range analysis. Why not include a factor of safety? Pareto's analysis gives us the 80:20 rule I suggest that you add the average daily range of 138 pips (using a 260-day look back period) to your weekly analysis So, instead of saying we should expect 250 - 350 pips,you will add plus/minus 138 pips. What do you think?
There are no certainties when it comes to expected ranges which are usually altered by market makers randomness... Whatever range I forecast are more predictive than certainty.

And I usually add that I may be brutally wrong.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #724,165
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:14am Jan 28, 2023 6:14am
Quoting W0lfram
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wt7YZv1qi4 {image} March FOMC is more important, it will become clear who is right and who is wrong - the market or the FED. If rates >5%, FED is right...
Probability close enough -
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  • #724,166
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:16am Jan 28, 2023 6:16am
Some ideas
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gb...-credit-suisse
  • #724,167
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:24am Jan 28, 2023 6:24am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The close here on FF is 2393. My broker says 2397. Investing.com says 2399. In any case, I have eaten humble pie many times before. Hahaha... {image}
Hi Miti,
IG closed Friday,22.00 at 12402.3.
Currently weekend GU -
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  • #724,168
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:43am Jan 28, 2023 6:43am
In elementary mathematics, we learnt about measures of central tendency (mean, median mode) and then measures of dispersion (range, standard deviation etc).

A major disadvantage of range is that we can have large values that will skew the result to one side.

Standard deviation gives far better results when checking for dispersion. Bollinger bands is simply 2 sigma added to (or deducted from) your 20. period moving average.

Standard deviation works far better than just range and can help you capture a larger part of the move expected.

Kindly consider what I have said.

All the best @Georginson!
  • #724,169
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:49am Jan 28, 2023 6:49am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi Miti, IG closed Friday,22.00 at 12402.3. Currently weekend GU - {image}
Tradingview has 1.23918 and Eightcap has 1.23735!
I find IG is always a little higher.
  • #724,170
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:56am Jan 28, 2023 6:56am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Tradingview has 1.23918 and Eightcap has 1.23735! I find IG is always a little higher.
Yes, due to spread increase during extended opening and closing times.
  • #724,171
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:00am Jan 28, 2023 7:00am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi Miti, IG closed Friday,22.00 at 12402.3. Currently weekend GU - {image}
This rate has little impact on the real Cable rate. Well, unless you are trading it.
  • #724,172
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:08am Jan 28, 2023 7:08am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Yes, due to spread increase during extended opening and closing times.
I noticed the spread increase to over 15 points on Friday at IG while my broker still used 9 or 10 for GU around 3:30- EST.
  • #724,173
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:10am Jan 28, 2023 7:10am
I admit that English is my first language but typing skills and declining vision often result in spelling mistakes. Recently I installed the Grammarly plugin for my browser. It works great to catch my mistakes. Just sharing.
  • #724,174
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:17am Jan 28, 2023 7:17am
looking for Low near 1.23 for a buy

next week have ending of the previous month and the current month that comes with strange movement

Just my view
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #724,175
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:21am Jan 28, 2023 7:21am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I noticed the spread increase to over 15 points on Friday at IG while my broker still used 9 or 10 for GU around 3:30- EST.
Who is your broker?
  • #724,176
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:32am Jan 28, 2023 7:32am
Nice discussion here about FED
Market expectation should be +0,25%
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But looking at the dots 2023, 10 of them are at 5,25%, 7 at more than 5,25%. What does it means?

January +0,25, March +0,25 and May +0,25 ?
Or it could be January +0,50%, March +0,25, and from May no change?

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  • #724,177
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:35am Jan 28, 2023 7:35am
Quoting Elknit
{quote} Who is your broker?
Eightcap
  • #724,178
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:43am Jan 28, 2023 7:43am
Quoting Vincent1
Or it could be January +0,50%, March +0,25, and from May no change?
Don't think this is likely as Powell mentioned they can slow down (although he thinks there is no point), but it is likely the final point (terminal rate) is higher.

Just how I read his statements.
  • #724,179
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:43am Jan 28, 2023 7:43am
Quoting Vincent1
Nice discussion here about FED Market expectation should be +0,25% {image} But looking at the dots 2023, 10 of them are at 5,25%, 7 at more than 5,25%. What does it means? January +0,25, March +0,25 and May +0,25 ? Or it could be January +0,50%, March +0,25, and from May no change? {image}
I will be on the side of amazed if the FED actually reduces by only 25 BP. The FED has very clearly stated its goal is to get annualized inflation down to 2%. Nothing in the economy suggests that annualized inflation is anywhere close to 2% yet. At best it is more than double that. In its meetings the FED spoke about reducing the rate of increases to 50 BP because inflation was trending down, they also stated that they expected rate increases throughout 2023 and set a target year-end rate. So are there any signs that inflation has moved closer to 2% yet? Without this type of sign or indication, why would the FED drop to a 25 BP increase?
  • #724,180
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:50am Jan 28, 2023 7:50am
looks here bull better get the target than correction immaturely , that is not before 2666. take care
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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