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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #649,161
  • Jan 22, 2022 11:18pm Jan 22, 2022 11:18pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} Yes, that description of what a commercial trader is, is in the link. Neverthelss, it refers to them as the "smart money" It also says: "Commercial traders represent a large portion of the total futures market and as such are primary influencers of commodity prices". It also says commercial traders can refer to someone who trades on behalf of a large institution such as a bank.
let's agree on dump money=retail traders
then it does not matter if both commercial and non-commercial are smart money
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #649,162
  • Jan 22, 2022 11:19pm Jan 22, 2022 11:19pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} you are looking at the commercial traders page and I'm looking at the non-commercials Non-Commercial Trader Definition (investopedia.com) {image} cheers,
I read that page also. It makes it sound like they are the movers and shakers.
But it is only the commercial page that refers to them as "smart money".

It's not in the non-commercial page.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #649,163
  • Jan 22, 2022 11:20pm Jan 22, 2022 11:20pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} let's agree on dump money=retail traders then it does not matter if both commercial and non-commercial are smart money


Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #649,164
  • Jan 23, 2022 2:24am Jan 23, 2022 2:24am
Quoting trumps
{quote} I think you misread my post. Reversing the tightening program, means becoming accomodative again.
Sorry for the misunderstanding mate. Well they will get accomodative again one day, but we will see when. And that's when crypto will revive again.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #649,165
  • Edited 3:34am Jan 23, 2022 2:42am | Edited 3:34am
One can just plot long positions of non-commercials against the price/calculate correlation, let's say GU, and see how "smart" they are.
(correlation is +, so things aren't that bad)
Air force
  • #649,166
  • Jan 23, 2022 2:54am Jan 23, 2022 2:54am
Quoting ChiForex
We have good resistance on daily/monthly at 1.3730-40s, a close below 1.35 on monthly is crucial to demolish bulls hopes seen on weekly chart especially after strong support pattern showed at 1.3150s
No much talk needed, price is now 50pips from 1.35, bears will try next week closing below, the more the better to take it back way lower next month.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #649,167
  • Jan 23, 2022 3:09am Jan 23, 2022 3:09am
Haven't updated since long time
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  • #649,168
  • Edited 5:20am Jan 23, 2022 4:42am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting trumps
BTC is priced in USD. So it makes sense that they generally move in opposite directions to each other. It's meant as a hedge against currency devaluation. {image} {image}
its compared to the $ but you can convert tether to bitcoin ,which would be ok/ideal if tether was actually backed 1to 1
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,169
  • Jan 23, 2022 5:10am Jan 23, 2022 5:10am
these stable coins exploded as a route into bitcoin etc rather than going to/from fiat for various reason ,like regulation ,cost ,speed
but there not decentralised or regulated at all and have some shady history people running them
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,170
  • Jan 23, 2022 5:25am Jan 23, 2022 5:25am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Sorry for the misunderstanding mate. Well they will get accomodative again one day, but we will see when. And that's when crypto will revive again.
Exactly.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #649,171
  • Jan 23, 2022 5:30am Jan 23, 2022 5:30am
Quoting Bones
{quote} its compared to the $ but you can convert tether to bitcoin ,which would be ok/ideal if tether was actually backed 1to 1 {image}
Yes, I'm not commenting on legitimacy of cryptos or anything though.
Just commenting that btc is more a protection against USD currency devaluation as a result of being priced in USD.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #649,172
  • Edited 7:13am Jan 23, 2022 6:04am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Yes, I'm not commenting on legitimacy of cryptos or anything though. Just commenting that btc is more a protection against USD currency devaluation as a result of being priced in USD.
it is logical but not reliable ,2020 bitcoin had an halving
2020 $ tanked,2021 bitcoin rallied
bitcoin is fatally flawed because of stable coins like tether if stocks fall those stable coins will likely go bust ,then bitcoin could go up after from a much lower level


Its a bit like comparing fed chat with $ when the environment is completely different ,we have inflation not seen for 39 years
whatever the fed do it won't be enough to curb it and its highly likely something will blow up before they get there
thats not a guess because they carry so much debt ,they have to come up with another crazy scheme in a crisis

my main point is theres a lot of moving parts to do that comparing
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,173
  • Edited 9:19am Jan 23, 2022 6:50am | Edited 9:19am
you could get a modern day bank run on stable coins
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #649,174
  • Jan 23, 2022 6:53am Jan 23, 2022 6:53am
I agree with Paul Tudor Jones.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...right-now.html
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #649,175
  • Jan 23, 2022 7:57am Jan 23, 2022 7:57am
If there any certainty I see ahead, it's either 1.3200 or 1.3980 happens within 5 weeks (January 25th to February 28).

Which do we get 1.3200 OR 1.3980 by or before February 28, 2022?
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #649,176
  • Jan 23, 2022 8:01am Jan 23, 2022 8:01am
Quoting Georginson
If there any certainty I see ahead, it's either 1.3200 or 1.3980 happens within 5 weeks (January 25th to February 28). Which do we get 1.3200 OR 1.3980 by or before February 28, 2022?
The ORACLE
  • #649,177
  • Jan 23, 2022 8:21am Jan 23, 2022 8:21am
Quoting Kwt4x
retail traders: don't have to file a report for COT, small shares = dump money non-commercial: have to file daily report for COT, have no direct business interests in the commodity(profit motive), large positions = smart money commercial: have to file daily report for COT, direct business interests in the commodity, hedge for protection(defensive motive) = nothing smart about that cheers,
Nope sir, its the opposite, for sure

Check charts below, and tell me about it
On the left yellow commercials aka smart money
On the right green non commercials aka dumb money

Lets look at the non commercial (green chart). So for you, the smart money is going long on top, and short on bottom ?
They aren't that smart



But we agree that both smart and dumb money can be right and wrong
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #649,178
  • Jan 23, 2022 8:24am Jan 23, 2022 8:24am
This is bigger picture, maybe will take a year
Bye
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  • #649,179
  • Jan 23, 2022 8:37am Jan 23, 2022 8:37am
Quoting Ihlas
This is bigger picture, maybe will take a year Bye {image}
I think the bigger picture is 1.5, not below 1.20.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #649,180
  • Jan 23, 2022 8:51am Jan 23, 2022 8:51am
Quoting Ihlas
This is bigger picture, maybe will take a year Bye {image}
may be as likely , but a spike up was still better , that is bull may not be over yet . and when it will be evident bull over , be too late for sure. needed 1.3373 breaks down as signal , 3172 will be confirmation!! so above 1.3373 as price crazily up as extensions mostly so during correction may not follow the same craziness , so zigzag possible , even new high too !
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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