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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

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  • Post #649,161
  • Quote
  • Jan 22, 2022 7:30pm Jan 22, 2022 7:30pm
  •  gatorinla
  • Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 87,670 Posts
Quoting gatorinla
Disliked
Yr USD chat.. USD Bull missed 96.3 close and the 95.85 year close. Bulls need to start with a month close above 95.85 and 96.03 to rise. IF Fomc can't deliver,, The usd should retrace some. Probably to Nov levels. The EU the same concerning month and 1331. Eu may rise to 1747+. China housing may hit commodity currencies harder then GU and EU. Later USD may go to supper cycle 99 and 117.. This is a 50 year chart. The begging of the petro dollar fall. Peace out. {image}
Ignored
EU wise the month has to close below 1185/83 1208 and 1331 or pa will rise. 1768 is normal.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
 
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  • Post #649,162
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  • Jan 22, 2022 9:08pm Jan 22, 2022 9:08pm
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Nordling00
Disliked
{quote} It did reverse, back in November. They started to taper. It may seem like a small step but that small step still managed to crash Bitcoin and US Stock market.
Ignored
I think you misread my post.
Reversing the tightening program, means becoming accomodative again.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
1
  • Post #649,163
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  • Jan 22, 2022 9:30pm Jan 22, 2022 9:30pm
  •  here2there
  • Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Moving on... | 5,330 Posts
Quoting navk
Disliked
It is likely to be a beautiful long entry on Monday open...
Ignored
I don't think so. But I could be wrong. Of course, it also depends on which time frame one is trading, and what is considered a 'beautiful long'.

Nevertheless, bears are in control for now.

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You don't know because you don't ask.
 
 
  • Post #649,164
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  • Jan 22, 2022 10:46pm Jan 22, 2022 10:46pm
  •  Kwt4x
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 232 Posts
retail traders: don't have to file a report for COT, small shares = dump money
non-commercial: have to file daily report for COT, have no direct business interests in the commodity(profit motive), large positions = smart money
commercial: have to file daily report for COT, direct business interests in the commodity, hedge for protection(defensive motive) = nothing smart about that

cheers,
 
1
  • Post #649,165
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  • Edited at 11:42pm Jan 22, 2022 11:32pm | Edited at 11:42pm
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Kwt4x
Disliked
retail traders: don't have to file a report for COT, small shares = dump money non-commercial: have to file daily report for COT, have no direct business interests in the commodity(profit motive), large positions = smart money commercial: have to file daily report for COT, direct business interests in the commodity, hedge for protection(defensive motive) = nothing smart about that cheers,
Ignored
It is the commercial traders who are known as the "smart money".
(assuming this is accurate info) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c...ialtraders.asp
"Many traders view the commercial traders as the "smart money" since the commercial traders are working in the actual commodity industry, and have insights into how that industry is doing based on what they see happening in the company around them".
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
 
  • Post #649,166
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 23, 2022 12:01am Jan 22, 2022 11:48pm | Edited Jan 23, 2022 12:01am
  •  Kwt4x
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 232 Posts
Quoting trumps
Disliked
{quote} It is the commercial traders who are known as the "smart money". (assuming this is accurate info) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c...ialtraders.asp "Many traders view the commercial traders as the "smart money" since the commercial traders are working in the actual commodity industry, and have insights into how that industry is doing based on what they see happening in the company around them".
Ignored
commercials are producers, merchants, processors, and users of a commodity. they don't pump liquidity into the market, they are in business of the commodity.
liquidity comes from hedge funds and large financial institutions(non-commercial) trading commodities they don't own.
 
 
  • Post #649,167
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  • Jan 23, 2022 12:07am Jan 23, 2022 12:07am
  •  Charlie
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 47 Posts
Possible reversal forming if we don't break 1.3545.
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  • Post #649,168
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  • Jan 23, 2022 12:09am Jan 23, 2022 12:09am
  •  Kwt4x
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 232 Posts
Quoting trumps
Disliked
{quote} It is the commercial traders who are known as the "smart money". (assuming this is accurate info) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c...ialtraders.asp "Many traders view the commercial traders as the "smart money" since the commercial traders are working in the actual commodity industry, and have insights into how that industry is doing based on what they see happening in the company around them".
Ignored
you are looking at the commercial traders page and I'm looking at the non-commercials

Non-Commercial Trader Definition (investopedia.com)

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cheers,
 
1
  • Post #649,169
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 12:15am Jan 23, 2022 12:15am
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Kwt4x
Disliked
{quote} commercials are producers, merchants, processors, and users of a commodity. they don't pump liquidity into the market, they are in business of the commodity. liquidity comes from hedge funds and large financial institutions(non-commercial) trading commodities they don't own.
Ignored
Yes, that description of what a commercial trader is, is in the link.
Neverthelss, it refers to them as the "smart money"
It also says: "Commercial traders represent a large portion of the total futures market and as such are primary influencers of commodity prices".
It also says commercial traders can refer to someone who trades on behalf of a large institution such as a bank.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
 
  • Post #649,170
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 12:18am Jan 23, 2022 12:18am
  •  Kwt4x
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 232 Posts
Quoting trumps
Disliked
{quote} Yes, that description of what a commercial trader is, is in the link. Neverthelss, it refers to them as the "smart money" It also says: "Commercial traders represent a large portion of the total futures market and as such are primary influencers of commodity prices". It also says commercial traders can refer to someone who trades on behalf of a large institution such as a bank.
Ignored
let's agree on dump money=retail traders
then it does not matter if both commercial and non-commercial are smart money
 
 
  • Post #649,171
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 12:19am Jan 23, 2022 12:19am
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Kwt4x
Disliked
{quote} you are looking at the commercial traders page and I'm looking at the non-commercials Non-Commercial Trader Definition (investopedia.com) {image} cheers,
Ignored
I read that page also. It makes it sound like they are the movers and shakers.
But it is only the commercial page that refers to them as "smart money".

It's not in the non-commercial page.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
 
  • Post #649,172
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 12:20am Jan 23, 2022 12:20am
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Kwt4x
Disliked
{quote} let's agree on dump money=retail traders then it does not matter if both commercial and non-commercial are smart money
Ignored


Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
 
  • Post #649,173
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 3:24am Jan 23, 2022 3:24am
  •  Nordling
  • Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Mamba Mentality. | 2,782 Posts | Invisible
Quoting trumps
Disliked
{quote} I think you misread my post. Reversing the tightening program, means becoming accomodative again.
Ignored
Sorry for the misunderstanding mate. Well they will get accomodative again one day, but we will see when. And that's when crypto will revive again.
 
 
  • Post #649,174
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:34am Jan 23, 2022 3:42am | Edited at 4:34am
  •  W0lfram
  • Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Crossed over into the Twilight Zone | 1,157 Posts
One can just plot long positions of non-commercials against the price/calculate correlation, let's say GU, and see how "smart" they are.
(correlation is +, so things aren't that bad)
 
1
  • Post #649,175
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 3:54am Jan 23, 2022 3:54am
  •  ChiForex
  • Joined Jan 2019 | Status: Member | 1,018 Posts
Quoting ChiForex
Disliked
We have good resistance on daily/monthly at 1.3730-40s, a close below 1.35 on monthly is crucial to demolish bulls hopes seen on weekly chart especially after strong support pattern showed at 1.3150s
Ignored
No much talk needed, price is now 50pips from 1.35, bears will try next week closing below, the more the better to take it back way lower next month.
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
 
1
  • Post #649,176
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 4:09am Jan 23, 2022 4:09am
  •  Ihlas
  • Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Member | 1,897 Posts
Haven't updated since long time
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  • Post #649,177
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:20am Jan 23, 2022 5:42am | Edited at 6:20am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 22,300 Posts
Quoting trumps
Disliked
BTC is priced in USD. So it makes sense that they generally move in opposite directions to each other. It's meant as a hedge against currency devaluation. {image} {image}
Ignored
its compared to the $ but you can convert tether to bitcoin ,which would be ok/ideal if tether was actually backed 1to 1
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Post #649,178
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 6:10am Jan 23, 2022 6:10am
  •  Bones
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 22,300 Posts
these stable coins exploded as a route into bitcoin etc rather than going to/from fiat for various reason ,like regulation ,cost ,speed
but there not decentralised or regulated at all and have some shady history people running them
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#doyourownanalysisordietryin
 
 
  • Post #649,179
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 6:25am Jan 23, 2022 6:25am
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Nordling00
Disliked
{quote} Sorry for the misunderstanding mate. Well they will get accomodative again one day, but we will see when. And that's when crypto will revive again.
Ignored
Exactly.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
1
  • Post #649,180
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2022 6:30am Jan 23, 2022 6:30am
  •  trumps
  • Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 2,259 Posts
Quoting Bones
Disliked
{quote} its compared to the $ but you can convert tether to bitcoin ,which would be ok/ideal if tether was actually backed 1to 1 {image}
Ignored
Yes, I'm not commenting on legitimacy of cryptos or anything though.
Just commenting that btc is more a protection against USD currency devaluation as a result of being priced in USD.
Good Vibes - In charts we trust
Pulchra All Time Return: -88.4%
 
 
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