Disliked{quote} Could you point me to the fundamentals that say buying GBP is a good idea? The UK economy suffered the biggest slump in the G7 in 2020, shrinking a record 9.9% as COVID-19 hit hard Lockdown still in place and likely to be extended Millions still on furlough (to prevent the real jobless numbers) Debt at ridiculously high levels (113% in 2021. We expect public debt to reach a peak of around 120% of GDP over the medium term - Fitch) We make very little. There is no valid fundamental reason for this current rise. While you could say the vacination...Ignored
I don't know whether you trade technically or fundamentally or from some other type of analysis, but from a technical point of view buying it has been easy, as TA makes the assumption that an uptrend will continue - until it doesn't. From a fundie view - not so, as your points give example to, but the market has, notwithstanding these, seen fit to favour gbp over usd, in the instrument. It doesn't necessarily mean that the market sees the Uk as being in a strong fundie position, just that it favours it over the U.s fundamentals to this point in the resulting gbpusd uptrend. We see a lot of traders here that sit out a great trend because they don't agree with the market's interpretation of the fundamental environment, and/or believe that the trend will end because the market is bound to come round to their way of thinking/analysis sooner or later. Meantime 00's of pips go by and worse they sell every high (in the example of this uptrend) and hold, believing 'it has started.' I refer you to the statement above. The market is never wrong. By the way, I am not saying this is what you have done.
Disliked{quote} Very well said. The thing is when retail traders start giving up on their sell then the price will start crashing. Also noteworthy that weekly RSI already reading 67 which rarely happens. Previous times weekly RSI read 67 were December 2019, September 2018 and September 2017 and the price crashed by 600 - 800 pips on each occasion. I still maintain a bearish bias to 1.34 in days ahead and 1.32 in weeks ahead before another probe towards 1.43 in the second half of the year.Ignored
Intraday swing trader @ 30min+ supp/res, & 5min+ sbr/rbs, via 1min+ set-ups
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