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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #577,881
  • Feb 13, 2021 2:43pm Feb 13, 2021 2:43pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Could you point me to the fundamentals that say buying GBP is a good idea? The UK economy suffered the biggest slump in the G7 in 2020, shrinking a record 9.9% as COVID-19 hit hard Lockdown still in place and likely to be extended Millions still on furlough (to prevent the real jobless numbers) Debt at ridiculously high levels (113% in 2021. We expect public debt to reach a peak of around 120% of GDP over the medium term - Fitch) We make very little. There is no valid fundamental reason for this current rise. While you could say the vacination...
Look at the monthly DOW, it is absolutely flying. Stimulus money has this effect.
This tends to put downward pressure on USD.

Since the GFC, CB's have shown they have no desire to let the market collapse.

I apologise for the language, but this video is as relevant today as it was 12 years ago
Inserted Video


Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #577,882
  • Feb 14, 2021 2:57am Feb 14, 2021 2:57am
GU to the moon .
It is all about the foreign exchange market.
  • #577,883
  • Feb 14, 2021 3:51am Feb 14, 2021 3:51am
happedy v day to all my friends . Ru ready for tomm
  • #577,884
  • Feb 14, 2021 3:55am Feb 14, 2021 3:55am
Quoting sang.real
{quote} race day. {image} do you know how to ride camel ?
i love u man my fb is no camel only
  • #577,885
  • Feb 14, 2021 3:56am Feb 14, 2021 3:56am
Quoting greengp
{quote} i love u man my fb is no camel only

60 old man/ u should enjoy ur life
  • #577,886
  • Feb 14, 2021 4:05am Feb 14, 2021 4:05am
Inserted Video
  • #577,887
  • Edited 4:17am Feb 14, 2021 4:07am | Edited 4:17am
hello everybody, mid-term prediction by intraday scalper

0-1 = 23 weeks
2-to actual price (after correction to 38.2%) = 19 weeks

so 4 weeks delta to bring us to 1.475+- for identical time and length AB=CD
and close to tested SW zone on weekly chart.. (remember JUN 16?)
so 4 weeks of
fireworks for the bulls side?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9634da312f9067905a38c5f6273dd95e.png Size: 83 KB


the red V represent the 4 weeks from now, 1.475+-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #577,888
  • Feb 14, 2021 5:03am Feb 14, 2021 5:03am
Quoting gatenio
hello everybody, mid-term prediction by intraday scalper 0-1 = 23 weeks 2-to actual price (after correction to 38.2%) = 19 weeks so 4 weeks delta to bring us to 1.475+- for identical time and length AB=CD and close to tested SW zone on weekly chart.. (remember JUN 16?) so 4 weeks of fireworks for the bulls side? {image} the red V represent the 4 weeks from now, 1.475+- {image}
Put wx not 12. And look to 1.39562
  • #577,889
  • Feb 14, 2021 5:20am Feb 14, 2021 5:20am
Quoting Marbas
I am just wondering, why you all are selling GBPUSD, when fundamentals and technical picture is for longs.. Why to catch highs, why to guess? It is so stupid. Just buy the dips and go with market.
It's very hard to trade fundamentals as a short term trader, the big firms that do business overseas also hedge there positions and the don't care if price is going up or down, they just want safety. The banks that do the transactions for them are looking for an extra buck but they will take the risk. In my modest opinion the first two decimal digits are for fundamentals and the last two for speculation and manipulation.
At longterm I think Europe will demotivate her members to leave by making it hard for GB. Although they will not admit it.
  • #577,890
  • Feb 14, 2021 5:41am Feb 14, 2021 5:41am
Price still not break R line yet, so next week we will see big bear daily candle (retest last week high then dropping)
Happy Weekend and V day all
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  • #577,891
  • Feb 14, 2021 5:55am Feb 14, 2021 5:55am
Looking at the weekend gap on IG and GU is nearly +20 pips!! No retrace in sight
Insane in the Brain..
  • #577,892
  • Feb 14, 2021 5:56am Feb 14, 2021 5:56am
Quoting Tim_isoara
{quote} Put wx not 12. And look to 1.39562
Ignore the count.. didnt publish ewave count.. just wave theory..
1.39? Maybe.. as i said, im scalper.. follow the money.
  • #577,893
  • Feb 14, 2021 6:13am Feb 14, 2021 6:13am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} Ignore the count.. didnt publish ewave count.. just wave theory.. 1.39? Maybe.. as i said, im scalper.. follow the money.
1.3956 is 61% fib ext of wx or 12. I expect a retracement like was WX or 12 or to start an impulse to downside.
  • #577,894
  • Feb 14, 2021 6:17am Feb 14, 2021 6:17am
do you think that the GBP is showing retracement 1.3819 since closing is down.
  • #577,895
  • Feb 14, 2021 6:23am Feb 14, 2021 6:23am
Quoting BeeTogether
Looking at the weekend gap on IG and GU is nearly +20 pips!! No retrace in sight
Last week it was like that: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13398492.
Meaning first pic was right, despite weird high and low figures.
And we had ~18 pips gap down

Now this.
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Air force
  • #577,896
  • Feb 14, 2021 7:12am Feb 14, 2021 7:12am
Quoting Efelexy
GU to the moon .
Since H4 candle closed as a very powerful bullish engulfing candle, price is expected to go even higher making new and fresh higher highs this week as price follows it predominant uptrend. It is a buyer's market and all we must be keen of is BOED/BOEF opportunities.... Cheers .
It is all about the foreign exchange market.
  • #577,897
  • Edited 8:03am Feb 14, 2021 7:14am | Edited 8:03am
Quoting mysterio
I see gilts have been dumping since August pushing up yields and cable along with it, however we're currently testing an important level on the monthly. A bounce here would give cable bears some hope, and if it breaks they're in big trouble. Two scenarios for next week- the market continues down and provides a double top/M pattern on the 4h TF and opens up more downside (a bit like 13th/14th Jan), or it breaks out the top of the channel and doesn't look back until 1.3900/1.4000. So either it's going UP or DOWN, you can have that advice for free....
Just thinking about this from a fundamental perspective. Gilts have been dumping from July, around the time this Cable bull market started. Yields currently around 0.5% for the ten year, BoE I think won't intervene until it's at 1% when it will start to hamper economic recovery. Which means, perversely, that the cable bull run is being driven by rising interest rates and UK debt looking less attractive the more UK debt gets out of control. So far from being a vote of confidence in the UK economy it's actually the opposite. When did Furlough start- around the beginning of Summer? It's like the market is saying- right so you're going to pay everyone's wages indefinitely, how on earth are you going to get out of that? However gilts are always going to be a part of matching portfolios for large institutions, pension funds etc. At some point they're going to look attractive again, either that or the BoE intervenes more heavily in the Gilt market. From a purely technical perspective it looks like that time is now, but fundamentally with furlough and lockdowns still going on, and a big question mark over how the UK is going to repay (so far all they've said is 'tax Amazon'), I probably wouldn't be snapping up Gilts at the current time. As someone else mentioned it's a bit of a house of cards. All this shit about cable rising because of the fast vaccine rollout- BS. Just imo. Gearing up for any eventuality next week
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  • #577,898
  • Edited 7:59am Feb 14, 2021 7:46am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting redoan
{quote} It's very hard to trade fundamentals as a short term trader, the big firms that do business overseas also hedge there positions and the don't care if price is going up or down, they just want safety. The banks that do the transactions for them are looking for an extra buck but they will take the risk. In my modest opinion the first two decimal digits are for fundamentals and the last two for speculation and manipulation. At longterm I think Europe will demotivate her members to leave by making it hard for GB. Although they will not admit...

You make some excellent points there. The truth is that identifying a long-term fundie theme and looking to express it in the markets on the most appropriate instrument (s) is one thing, but most retail traders need to get paid so cannot hold an open position or whole original open position long enough to take optimum long term advantage of it. Without quants and algo's beavering away and a whole massively smart and qualified research dept at your disposal the former is hard enough anyway. Sure, we can all work out the global macro basics but timing/deep pockets, and finding a 'niche' edge/opportunity that not many have spotted is where it is at for them, and for that you need those resources- that is the key to successful fundamental analysis led trading. Watch the film The Big Short about the 3 or 4 who took advantage of the weaknesses in the U.s housing market that precipitated the 2008 financial crash, and positioned accordingly. Smallish boutique funds (still with deep enough pockets who could still get paid in the interim,) and who had to endure some pain before the trade (s) came off big time. What tends to happen in all these cases is that fearful of missing the boat, (and I speak from experience here having spent 17years as a bank/hedge fund trader,) and buoyed up by having spotted the potential opportunity - you tend to be too early and have to live through the pain first, and I don't mean just financial. There is psychological pain, and peer pressure, to say nothing of having to explain to a boss why it is still a good idea when it is losing money lol ! I didn't care about that last one as I still got paid, and always intended to leave to trade my own a/c, and probably wanted to go out in a blaze of glory!

Re Eu punishing GB as a disincentive to others - I think that is absolutely right.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #577,899
  • Feb 14, 2021 9:55am Feb 14, 2021 9:55am
Quoting Tradefx2021
GU should retrace back from this price also weekly RSI is in over sold area.
Tradefx2021, your post doesn't make sense to me, but I might be not smart enough to know what you want to convey. ...here is the weekly chart and what I see. The area for the end of the bearish bat pattern may act as a magnet for now...just my thoughts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 02.12.Weekly.EOW.png Size: 112 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #577,900
  • Feb 14, 2021 11:25am Feb 14, 2021 11:25am
I am a day trader..

As long as friday high is not broken, I expect a pull back towards 3930 ( pivot ) /20 first.

Then price likely to goto 1.3884/3900 .

If Friday high breaks in Frankfurt/asia then price can hit R1 or more after that a pull back to Pivot in NY session
Intraday only.
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