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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #577,861
  • Feb 13, 2021 2:03am Feb 13, 2021 2:03am
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yes yes yes
  • #577,862
  • Feb 13, 2021 3:09am Feb 13, 2021 3:09am
Quoting Moty
{image}
Looks like a drop towards 13810
Insane in the Brain..
  • #577,863
  • Feb 13, 2021 3:15am Feb 13, 2021 3:15am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} Looks like a drop towards 13810
I'm a seller with MM so I didnt close my positions, but it seems atm it dont want to go down at all. They are just playing with us and with our money.
Multiple Position Trader
  • #577,864
  • Feb 13, 2021 3:37am Feb 13, 2021 3:37am
Quoting Sang.Real
{quote} Itchy fingers Small 0.21 cents . Bet on the table. SL placed. TP set. Just want to enjoy the weekend for the Camel Race. {image}
have you enjoyed . great progress
  • #577,865
  • Edited 4:26am Feb 13, 2021 3:57am | Edited 4:26am
On my osc's the bearish regular divergence @ Friday's 3862 hi was on 3min, 5min, and 15min. It does not extend to 1hr or 4hr because where you would measure it to ie 3866 (last oscillator peak shown as red dot on the 4Hr chart below) was not equaled or exceeded by price, therefore there is not yet any divergence. Looking @ the 4hr below, for eg, there could well be if price makes an equal hi to 3866, or probes higher. Compare to 15min, also below where price did make a higher hi to the point of comparison, ie the osc peak and at that higher point in price (red dot) the osc didn't even make it back above it's zero axis.

I should add that the lack of bearish regular oscillator divergence from price on 1hr/4hr doesn't mean that price won't move to the downside, and vice versa, just that on this occasion it isn't currently present on those 1hr & 4hr t/f's, (on my osc's and settings, - others may be different.)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #577,866
  • Feb 13, 2021 5:51am Feb 13, 2021 5:51am
Candle close as input parameter. 4 confirmed (1 candle lag) auto-detected and one on TSI below.
Maybe last 4h was that drop, released from divergences. I've lost confidence in this indicator
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Air force
  • #577,867
  • Feb 13, 2021 6:51am Feb 13, 2021 6:51am
Quoting Marbas
I am just wondering, why you all are selling GBPUSD, when fundamentals and technical picture is for longs.. Why to catch highs, why to guess? It is so stupid. Just buy the dips and go with market.
Could you point me to the fundamentals that say buying GBP is a good idea?

The UK economy suffered the biggest slump in the G7 in 2020, shrinking a record 9.9% as COVID-19 hit hard
Lockdown still in place and likely to be extended
Millions still on furlough (to prevent the real jobless numbers)
Debt at ridiculously high levels (113% in 2021. We expect public debt to reach a peak of around 120% of GDP over the medium term - Fitch)
We make very little.

There is no valid fundamental reason for this current rise. While you could say the vacination program, but how successful is this really going to be?
We all have the numbers for the first injection. But i cannot find anywhere the numbers for people having both.

And quite alot of people who know saying this wont work on the new strains.

For me its smoke and mirrors, built on sticks and I'm positioning myself for the fall.
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #577,868
  • Feb 13, 2021 7:03am Feb 13, 2021 7:03am
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Could you point me to the fundamentals that say buying GBP is a good idea? The UK economy suffered the biggest slump in the G7 in 2020, shrinking a record 9.9% as COVID-19 hit hard Lockdown still in place and likely to be extended Millions still on furlough (to prevent the real jobless numbers) Debt at ridiculously high levels (113% in 2021. We expect public debt to reach a peak of around 120% of GDP over the medium term - Fitch) We make very little. There is no valid fundamental reason for this current rise. While you could say the vacination...
Very well said. The thing is when retail traders start giving up on their sell then the price will start crashing. Also noteworthy that weekly RSI already reading 67 which rarely happens. Previous times weekly RSI read 67 were December 2019, September 2018 and September 2017 and the price crashed by 600 - 800 pips on each occasion. I still maintain a bearish bias to 1.34 in days ahead and 1.32 in weeks ahead before another probe towards 1.43 in the second half of the year.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #577,869
  • Feb 13, 2021 7:33am Feb 13, 2021 7:33am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Where I can buy/rent a MT4 server? I wanna be The King of FF! Seems easy and LEGIT money! So many customers here! All Legal, too! Love it! This MT4 Server is a KINGMAKER!
visit mql5.com
Le$$ I$ More
  • #577,870
  • Feb 13, 2021 8:59am Feb 13, 2021 8:59am
Quoting greengp
{quote} have you enjoyed . great progress

RACE Day.

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Do you know how to ride Camel ?
  • #577,871
  • Feb 13, 2021 9:17am Feb 13, 2021 9:17am
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Could you point me to the fundamentals that say buying GBP is a good idea? The UK economy suffered the biggest slump in the G7 in 2020, shrinking a record 9.9% as COVID-19 hit hard Lockdown still in place and likely to be extended Millions still on furlough (to prevent the real jobless numbers) Debt at ridiculously high levels (113% in 2021. We expect public debt to reach a peak of around 120% of GDP over the medium term - Fitch) We make very little. There is no valid fundamental reason for this current rise. While you could say the vacination...
add to that the financial disruption from Brexit. It’s very surprising that cable is as high as it is right now.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #577,872
  • Feb 13, 2021 9:21am Feb 13, 2021 9:21am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} add to that the financial disruption from Brexit. It’s very surprising that cable is as high as it is right now.
Amsterdam has overtaken London as Europe’s largest share trading centre, and experts say the symbolic blow could be followed by the City losing jobs as well as more business owing to Brexit.
The Dutch capital, which was previously the sixth largest exchange centre in Europe, saw average daily trading surge from €2.6bn (£2.3bn) to €9.2bn in January as exchanges shifted order books abroad after Brexit.

It pushed London into second place, with average daily trading halving from €17.5bn to €8.6bn last month, according to data released by the CBOE exchange.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...trading-centre
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #577,873
  • Feb 13, 2021 10:42am Feb 13, 2021 10:42am
SMART MONEY BELIEVE in UPTREND
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  • #577,874
  • Edited 12:13pm Feb 13, 2021 10:56am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Could you point me to the fundamentals that say buying GBP is a good idea? The UK economy suffered the biggest slump in the G7 in 2020, shrinking a record 9.9% as COVID-19 hit hard Lockdown still in place and likely to be extended Millions still on furlough (to prevent the real jobless numbers) Debt at ridiculously high levels (113% in 2021. We expect public debt to reach a peak of around 120% of GDP over the medium term - Fitch) We make very little. There is no valid fundamental reason for this current rise. While you could say the vacination...
The instrument is a 'two sided coin' ie gbpusd not just gbp. the market has, thus far in this uptrend believed it better to favour gbp over usd. That has been the reason to buy the instrument. The market is never wrong, whether we agree with it, or our own analysis sees it the same way or not. Whether this will continue, no one knows.

I don't know whether you trade technically or fundamentally or from some other type of analysis, but from a technical point of view buying it has been easy, as TA makes the assumption that an uptrend will continue - until it doesn't. From a fundie view - not so, as your points give example to, but the market has, notwithstanding these, seen fit to favour gbp over usd, in the instrument. It doesn't necessarily mean that the market sees the Uk as being in a strong fundie position, just that it favours it over the U.s fundamentals to this point in the resulting gbpusd uptrend. We see a lot of traders here that sit out a great trend because they don't agree with the market's interpretation of the fundamental environment, and/or believe that the trend will end because the market is bound to come round to their way of thinking/analysis sooner or later. Meantime 00's of pips go by and worse they sell every high (in the example of this uptrend) and hold, believing 'it has started.' I refer you to the statement above. The market is never wrong. By the way, I am not saying this is what you have done.

Quoting Georginson
{quote} Very well said. The thing is when retail traders start giving up on their sell then the price will start crashing. Also noteworthy that weekly RSI already reading 67 which rarely happens. Previous times weekly RSI read 67 were December 2019, September 2018 and September 2017 and the price crashed by 600 - 800 pips on each occasion. I still maintain a bearish bias to 1.34 in days ahead and 1.32 in weeks ahead before another probe towards 1.43 in the second half of the year.
Nice observation. Thanks. If you look at my 15min chart in post above - it could be that classic break down from the hi, retest and rejection - ie the start of a move down....time will tell.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #577,875
  • Feb 13, 2021 11:12am Feb 13, 2021 11:12am
Quoting helioss
SMART MONEY BELIEVE in UPTREND {image}
Data for last Tuesday?
Air force
  • #577,876
  • Edited 3:15pm Feb 13, 2021 11:15am | Edited 3:15pm
I see gilts have been dumping since August pushing up yields and cable along with it, however we're currently testing an important level on the monthly. A bounce here would give cable bears some hope, and if it breaks they're in big trouble. Two scenarios for next week- the market continues down and provides a double top/M pattern on the 4h TF and opens up more downside (a bit like 13th/14th Jan), or it breaks out the top of the channel and doesn't look back until 1.3900/1.4000. So either it's going UP or DOWN, you can have that advice for free. Obviously the area to watch is 1.386x. I believe DXY is headed for a final leg UP before back down, with US 10y treasury yields set to hit 1.23% before falling.

I'd love to see the 200/300 pip drop some people are talking about
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  • #577,877
  • Feb 13, 2021 11:37am Feb 13, 2021 11:37am
Quoting Headland
{quote} The instrument is a 'two sided coin' ie gbpusd not just gbp. the market has, thus far in this uptrend believed it better to favour gbp over usd. That has been the reason to buy the instrument. The market is never wrong.
I agree technically it's buy the dips until the trend is no more.
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #577,878
  • Feb 13, 2021 11:51am Feb 13, 2021 11:51am
Wkly chart below

You will see the line oscillator has reached a level just over the so called 'overbought' 80 level and is, like the histogram osc, showing divergence with where price was @ it's last peak, (3482.) That line reading when it went red at that 3482 hi was circa 97. Obviously there is no fractal hi (yet?) on this t/f at the current 3866 hi.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #577,879
  • Feb 13, 2021 12:57pm Feb 13, 2021 12:57pm
Quoting sang.real
{quote} race day. {image} do you know how to ride camel ?

love u man by the v day
  • #577,880
  • Feb 13, 2021 1:01pm Feb 13, 2021 1:01pm
For all my traders happy v day
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