Hi Quants,
What about beeing able to choose the timeframe (not only days) ?
Have a nice w-e
Best
What about beeing able to choose the timeframe (not only days) ?
Have a nice w-e
Best
- #26
- Jun 12, 2020 9:39am Jun 12, 2020 9:39am
This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech. Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread. Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll. This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored .. If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close...
Have to admit this is (I think) a very good one.
I took the liberty of adjusting your indi to have an extra visual (automation) of the min and max treshold.
Keep up the good work!
- #28
- Edited 5:31pm Jun 14, 2020 5:04pm | Edited 5:31pm
Hello Fellas i hope you all doing good.
The Question was that :
Here is this weeks answer about the bolingers. I have changed the rule a bit to make it tradeable
The rule is following : If Candle touched the Upper Bolinger Band it must opened below of the line. Then we check the probability of those candles
whether they closed above or below after the touch is initiated.
Inside of the indicator there is a option to check only first touch of the day. For Up and Dn.
This is the result as example :
So on H4 Chart we have found
Last 509 days checked. If we go after first touch of 20 Deviation Bolinger band Lower. Then you have %83 probability that it will close above of it.
File updated in first post
The Question was that :
ok my question is,
Is it possible to code a statistical indicator that tells me for any given period and timeframe (of my choice), how many times in percentage terms has price closed outside or inside the Bollinger band. According to bollinger price will stay inside the bands(20,2) approx 86-88% of the time if I am not mistaken.
Would be a helpful tool to determine if price is due a breakout/reversal or consolidation.
Thanks
Here is this weeks answer about the bolingers. I have changed the rule a bit to make it tradeable
The rule is following : If Candle touched the Upper Bolinger Band it must opened below of the line. Then we check the probability of those candles
whether they closed above or below after the touch is initiated.
Inside of the indicator there is a option to check only first touch of the day. For Up and Dn.
This is the result as example :
So on H4 Chart we have found
Last 509 days checked. If we go after first touch of 20 Deviation Bolinger band Lower. Then you have %83 probability that it will close above of it.
File updated in first post
Take it easy.
I have uploaded v3
As i added option = First Touch Of Day only First Candle means it checks touches only for 00:00 candles
The oder option is = First touch Of Day but touch can happen any candle. But must be only first touch of Up and Dn.
If Both False , It checks all bars.
So in this screenshot Once first touch of the day happens for Upper Band , You have %65 probability that it will close OPPOSITE the bolinger band.
Remember , Candle must be opened lower than the upper line before touch happens and vice versa for Lower line.
As i added option = First Touch Of Day only First Candle means it checks touches only for 00:00 candles
The oder option is = First touch Of Day but touch can happen any candle. But must be only first touch of Up and Dn.
If Both False , It checks all bars.
So in this screenshot Once first touch of the day happens for Upper Band , You have %65 probability that it will close OPPOSITE the bolinger band.
Remember , Candle must be opened lower than the upper line before touch happens and vice versa for Lower line.
Take it easy.
EURUSD M30
BOLINGER PERIOD : 8
Deviation : 2
You have %77 Probability for Down and UP Touches
That they will close inside of the bands.
It found the probability by looking atleast 900 touches for both directions and it been happening for past 66 days... Cool stats.
Now i am leaving another tip for whoever wants to code. If you can calculate the max distance on averarge it been traveling after the touch . You can calculate the SL and the TP to trade it. That must be counted for the same candle OR just with such rule that can give you chance to manage that trade
For last 122 days there have been only 24 down touches at 00:00 candle
At it have %96 probability to close opp side.
However if we get this stats for 28 pairs, It means you can get plenty of opportunities like this that been doing with super high probability. It reminds me gap closing thing. Not sure why it have such high rate like that especially for 00:00 candles.
BOLINGER PERIOD : 8
Deviation : 2
You have %77 Probability for Down and UP Touches
That they will close inside of the bands.
It found the probability by looking atleast 900 touches for both directions and it been happening for past 66 days... Cool stats.
Now i am leaving another tip for whoever wants to code. If you can calculate the max distance on averarge it been traveling after the touch . You can calculate the SL and the TP to trade it. That must be counted for the same candle OR just with such rule that can give you chance to manage that trade
For last 122 days there have been only 24 down touches at 00:00 candle
At it have %96 probability to close opp side.
However if we get this stats for 28 pairs, It means you can get plenty of opportunities like this that been doing with super high probability. It reminds me gap closing thing. Not sure why it have such high rate like that especially for 00:00 candles.
Take it easy.
