Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Thinking in a probabilistic way 9 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Quant trading & QuantLib 6 replies

Quant Corner 12 replies

questions from a future quant 39 replies

Attachments: Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
Exit Attachments

Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method

Quoting carddard
Trying to synthesize this. Are your findings showing that once a lower high has been broken before once, there is a higher probability of it being broken again in the near future?

No i am saying that. Once LOWER HIGH is broken. The breakout candles high will be broken.

Attached Image
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
What is the probability we will get a retrace?
Feels right this time!
So once HL is broken. I checked if that candles low been crossed. This happens with incredible accuracte before the opposite breakout happens.

Means, IF LH Was broken, Before the next HL Breakout. We will see that breakout candles high is taken out.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 27 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Awesome! Great to see you active again.
Great work Quants! Does this work as well for other timeframes?
Quoting carddard
Great work Quants! Does this work as well for other timeframes?
Yes i mean i can calculate the HL LH Breakouts of M5 M15 etc and see. But i like H4 HL LH Breaks so that is even more than enough.
Now i am curious the probabilities of the next bar.

I mean, If breakout candle happened , What is the probability that high will taken on 1 next bar.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
{image}
In this example, the high of the breakout candle wasn't breached until a retracement happened. Maybe finding out the average number candles it takes for the breakout candle's high to be breached would be meaningful. What do you think?
Stats drop nicely when i checked if the next candle is the breaker one. After the HL and LH Break candle.
This give us very nice entry points %30 of the time.
For both directions like 1:20 RR .. Means , If i bet that the high or low will not taken. I have very tight stop loss and have huge opposite directional movement.

Attached Image
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 23 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
So it comes that , Even on H4. If you have LH or HL Break candle you have atleast %60 chance that it will taken out by next candle. %40 of time it takes X candles. And then it taken out by %80+ probability within those X candles.

The opposite, Sometimes you have very tight entries. Means up to 1:20 RR. So even that %88 probability can be traded againstly. So if you keep the stoploss very low, Once that probability fail you can just make more.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
I think, I will take advantage of those tight StopLoss ones when i have nested sup dem zones.. And if i dont have anything but pure strength and volatility i will go for taken out highs and lows that is my end conclusion
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
I think, I will take advantage of those tight StopLoss ones when i have nested sup dem zones.. And if i dont have anything but pure strength and volatility i will go for taken out highs and lows that is my end conclusion
Did you get a chance to look at the average movement in pips after each break?
Quoting carddard
{quote} Did you get a chance to look at the average movement in pips after each break?
Well good idea but not intended for now. Thrown the idea maybe someone will make out something from it.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
{quote} Things been very hectic here for a while. Im nearly done will make thread continue very soon
Hey, care to check that thread. if you could then please do some statistical analysis.. that method seems to be good.. thanks..
Quoting Quants
{quote} Well good idea but not intended for now. Thrown the idea maybe someone will make out something from it.
Hi Quants, why not based on donchian channel (or swing) ? it will can give others opportunities like the possibility to choose the time period...
Quoting Quants
{quote} Well good idea but not intended for now. Thrown the idea maybe someone will make out something from it.
Will you be releasing your new tool?
Quoting LearnALot
{quote} Will you be releasing your new tool?
I need to release my version 2 dashboard. Gonna use it there. For now its not making any future calculation or drawing in future as i drawn everything for history. Have to finish that first. Once all gets finished and release i can share that one here without any problem.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech. Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread. Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll. This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored .. If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close...
I am beginning to understand Daily Prob Checker (thanks for the sourche) and i experimented with StartHours.
I just continue before Londen Open. This gives (i think) mutch beter figures. Dear Sir mr Quants what do you think about Start/End hour??
One interesting thing is this. When i swapped my Charts to 15 min.
I have found that
We have %37 of the time That once Higher low break happens on EURUSD since JUN.
It does not take that low untill opposite LowerHigh is broken.

It means. I can just set my SL Below of that candle and wait to exit when the opposite LowerHigh break happens. This looks like that :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 19 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 52 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
So THE RR is tremendous and it been happening since JUN.

Just saying ;D %37 of the time you will hit one of those. Means you can get atleast

Ofcourse not very reliable stats that no guarantee it will happening. But i need it to happen one more time even after few lose streaks to get all my loosers back
and make profit ... Ofcourse there is a chance that it may not happen for veeery long time too. But odds with me from past. Worth to bet.

On the other side that since JUN %100 of the LOWER HIGH Break candles high was taken. That is sweet.

And those are just 1 indicator. 1 Variable. I can throw many things to it just to get more precise or have %53 of the time Right. I don't know , We will see.

And if we speak the case that this not happens again, Then our stats will increasing back that Our LOWS are gonna taken once those higher low break happens.

Theese are one of the advantage to know what markets been doing. Instead of forcing ideas to make profit. Just find the stuff that been profitable by asking right questions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 35 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
0 traders viewing now