• Home
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • User/Email: Password:
  • 12:48pm
Menu
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 12:48pm
Sister Sites
  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Thinking in a probabilistic way 9 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Quant trading & QuantLib 6 replies

Quant Corner 12 replies

questions from a future quant 39 replies

  • Trading Discussion
  • /
  • Reply to Thread
  • Subscribe
  • 59
Attachments: Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
Exit Attachments
Tags: Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
Cancel

Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method

  • Last Post
  •  
  • 1 Page 23456 8
  • 1 Page 234 8
  •  
  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 6:47am Jun 12, 2020 6:47am
  •  rosalieone
  • Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 507 Posts
Hi Quants,
What about beeing able to choose the timeframe (not only days) ?
Have a nice w-e
Best
 
 
  • Post #22
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:13am Jun 12, 2020 10:13am
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
Quoting rosalieone
Disliked
Hi Quants, What about beeing able to choose the timeframe (not only days) ? Have a nice w-e Best
Ignored
I didnt understand the question
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #23
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:21am Jun 12, 2020 10:21am
  •  rosalieone
  • Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 507 Posts
Quoting Quants
Disliked
{quote} I didnt understand the question
Ignored
First page you said ''Previous week we have created Daily Average Probability checker''
So i was asking why not give the possibility to have M15 or H4 or W or M1 or... Average probability checker
I dont know if interesting but since the daily is why not
Best
 
 
  • Post #24
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:25am Jun 12, 2020 10:25am
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
Quoting rosalieone
Disliked
{quote} First page you said ''Previous week we have created Daily Average Probability checker'' So i was asking why not give the possibility to have M15 or H4 or W or M1 or... Average probability checker I dont know if interesting but since the daily is why not Best
Ignored
Not worth. Any Timeframe lower than D1 Will not reproduce enough AVERAGE OF PIPS. So even if you have good probability that moves %10 of M15 Average candle it will only few pips. Trading opportunity cannot be created. If last 5 days average is 300 pips, It gives you enough room to get some trade within %1 or %2 moves.
But last 5 m15 candle will have so low average.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:29am Jun 12, 2020 10:29am
  •  rosalieone
  • Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Member | 507 Posts
Quoting Quants
Disliked
{quote} Not worth. Any Timeframe lower than D1 Will not reproduce enough AVERAGE OF PIPS. So even if you have good probability that moves %10 of M15 Average candle it will only few pips. Trading opportunity cannot be created. If last 5 days average is 300 pips, It gives you enough room to get some trade within %1 or %2 moves. But last 5 m15 candle will have so low average.
Ignored
Of course youre right but in those cases why not upper the number of candle considered ?
Btw thanks for the existing one
 
 
  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:39am Jun 12, 2020 10:39am
  •  dariuske
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Just a member | 237 Posts
Quoting Quants
Disliked
This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech. Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread. Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll. This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored .. If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close...
Ignored
It's been a long time since I've posted here but have been watching the posts on FF now and then.
Have to admit this is (I think) a very good one.
I took the liberty of adjusting your indi to have an extra visual (automation) of the min and max treshold.
Keep up the good work!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot2.png
Size: 735 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ProbabilityDay_v7.1.mq4   7 KB | 259 downloads
 
1
  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:43am Jun 12, 2020 11:43am
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
Quoting dariuske
Disliked
{quote} It's been a long time since I've posted here but have been watching the posts on FF now and then. Have to admit this is (I think) a very good one. I took the liberty of adjusting your indi to have an extra visual (automation) of the min and max treshold. Keep up the good work! {image} {file}
Ignored
Nice. Thanks for that.

I was allso thrown the idea if someone like to put his hands under the stone to find Max Opposite average distance that it traveled before reaching max treshold.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:31pm Jun 14, 2020 6:04pm | Edited 6:31pm
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
Hello Fellas i hope you all doing good.

The Question was that :
Quote
Disliked
ok my question is,

Is it possible to code a statistical indicator that tells me for any given period and timeframe (of my choice), how many times in percentage terms has price closed outside or inside the Bollinger band. According to bollinger price will stay inside the bands(20,2) approx 86-88% of the time if I am not mistaken.

Would be a helpful tool to determine if price is due a breakout/reversal or consolidation.

Thanks

Here is this weeks answer about the bolingers. I have changed the rule a bit to make it tradeable

The rule is following : If Candle touched the Upper Bolinger Band it must opened below of the line. Then we check the probability of those candles
whether they closed above or below after the touch is initiated.
Inside of the indicator there is a option to check only first touch of the day. For Up and Dn.

This is the result as example :

So on H4 Chart we have found
Last 509 days checked. If we go after first touch of 20 Deviation Bolinger band Lower. Then you have %83 probability that it will close above of it.

File updated in first post
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Image3.png
Size: 37 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
1
  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2020 6:18pm Jun 14, 2020 6:18pm
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
I have uploaded v3
As i added option = First Touch Of Day only First Candle means it checks touches only for 00:00 candles
The oder option is = First touch Of Day but touch can happen any candle. But must be only first touch of Up and Dn.

If Both False , It checks all bars.

So in this screenshot Once first touch of the day happens for Upper Band , You have %65 probability that it will close OPPOSITE the bolinger band.
Remember , Candle must be opened lower than the upper line before touch happens and vice versa for Lower line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Image1.png
Size: 32 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2020 6:21pm Jun 14, 2020 6:21pm
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
I want to note that. As bolinger price moves if the candle makes new highs Most of the time you can get better entry points. However %65 is still good odds..
This is what have been happening for last 180 Bolinger Upper line touches on H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Image2.png
Size: 35 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2020 6:29pm Jun 14, 2020 6:29pm
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
V4 Uploaded , Fixed small bug about non day stats.

Anyway v4 is last version. Feel free to improve.

Here is one example.
ON M5 Any First Candle Touch Mode have %72 probability that it will close Opposite of the touched direction.

This is just happened LOL

An Example of worked lucky signal. Market been doing it for past 60 days.

Keep asking the questions eventually we will end up with many ODDS.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Image1.png
Size: 50 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2020 6:39pm Jun 14, 2020 6:39pm
  •  Quants
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: ... | 429 Posts
EURUSD M30
BOLINGER PERIOD : 8
Deviation : 2

You have %77 Probability for Down and UP Touches
That they will close inside of the bands.

It found the probability by looking atleast 900 touches for both directions and it been happening for past 66 days... Cool stats.

Now i am leaving another tip for whoever wants to code. If you can calculate the max distance on averarge it been traveling after the touch . You can calculate the SL and the TP to trade it. That must be counted for the same candle OR just with such rule that can give you chance to manage that trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Image1.png
Size: 41 KB


For last 122 days there have been only 24 down touches at 00:00 candle
At it have %96 probability to close opp side.

However if we get this stats for 28 pairs, It means you can get plenty of opportunities like this that been doing with super high probability. It reminds me gap closing thing. Not sure why it have such high rate like that especially for 00:00 candles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Image2.png
Size: 32 KB
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
 
 
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2020 11:09pm Jun 14, 2020 11:09pm
  •  shrips
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 225 Posts
Thanks for the work done on this, however I was hoping to get data on closes outside or inside the bollinger band.

If there are any other coders out there willing to have a go, it would be appreciated.
 
 
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Jun 15, 2020 2:06am Jun 15, 2020 2:06am
  •  earlroy63
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
If the New York Close price closes lower than the previous day New York Close price, the market will move down by a minimum of 42 pips on any forex pair. The reverse will also happen.

Roy
 
 
  • Post #35
  • Quote
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:28pm Jun 15, 2020 3:28pm
  •  LuboLabo
  • Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Order Flow Trader | 880 Posts
Quoting Quants
Disliked
{quote}....... I was allso thrown the idea if someone like to put his hands under the stone to find Max Opposite average distance that it traveled before reaching max treshold.
Ignored
This would be really interesting!!!
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
 
 
  • Post #36
  • Quote
  • Jun 16, 2020 12:36am Jun 16, 2020 12:36am
  •  MarkStep
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jul 2018 | 247 Posts
Hi I would like to give a challenge, how about probability of price breaking out of asian range or reversing.
 
 
  • Post #37
  • Quote
  • Jun 16, 2020 5:11am Jun 16, 2020 5:11am
  •  earlroy63
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting earlroy63
Disliked
If the New York Close price closes lower than the previous day New York Close price, the market will move down by a minimum of 42 pips on any forex pair. The reverse will also happen. Roy
Ignored
Results for June 16

Not bad results, probability looks good.

Roy
 
 
  • Post #38
  • Quote
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:01am Jun 16, 2020 6:01am
  •  ozziedave
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: Ozziedave | 1,661 Posts
Quoting dariuske
Disliked
{quote} It's been a long time since I've posted here but have been watching the posts on FF now and then. Have to admit this is (I think) a very good one. I took the liberty of adjusting your indi to have an extra visual (automation) of the min and max treshold. Keep up the good work! {image} {file}
Ignored

Maybe you could take a crack at providing a bit more of an explanation since you seem to understand what's going on better than most.
 
 
  • Post #39
  • Quote
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:02am Jun 16, 2020 6:02am
  •  LuboLabo
  • Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Order Flow Trader | 880 Posts
Quoting earlroy63
Disliked
{quote} Results for June 16 Not bad results, probability looks good. Roy
Ignored
Hello Roy,
did u done an indicator with this stats?
Thanks.
Lubo
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
 
 
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:42am Jun 16, 2020 7:15am | Edited 7:42am
  •  earlroy63
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Member | 518 Posts
Quoting LuboLabo
Disliked
{quote} Hello Roy, did u done an indicator with this stats? Thanks. Lubo
Ignored
I have an indicator. I thought Quants would have been interested in my strategy, to see the probability.
See GBPCAD today.
Over 50 pips


Roy
 
 
  • Trading Discussion
  • /
  • Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
  • Reply to Thread
    • 1 Page 23456 8
    • 1 Page 234 8
0 traders viewing now
  • More
Top of Page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
About FF
  • Mission
  • Products
  • User Guide
  • Media Kit
  • Blog
  • Contact
FF Products
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • Calendar
  • News
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Trade Explorer
FF Website
  • Homepage
  • Search
  • Members
  • Report a Bug
Follow FF
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

FF Sister Sites:

  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Forex Factory® is a brand of Fair Economy, Inc.

Terms of Service / ©2023