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USD/TRY and EUR/TRY 12 replies

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Quoting LukaszH
{quote} Tomorrow we will get another part od economic data from TR: Industrial Production YoY MAY What is your expectations about this ? Any thoughts about possible impact on USD/TRY ?
According to website below, average ecpectation is %5,5..i think, it is a low important event..i dont have specific forecast for data..and i think, its effect will be limited..

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Quoting eozdural
{quote} My short I opened last week is still open (and negative), and I added another short today (which is also negative). I am going to hope for something that scares the EURTRY bulls and causes a flurry of stop triggering. I am trading EURTRY not the USDTRY because the swap is better.
I think, shorting and holding Try pairs for a long time due to higher swaps is very risky strategy..even if central bank increase the interest rates, that will probably hold currency for a few months at most..there are too many problems in the economy such as rising inflation, increasing costs of oil-gas, increasing fx debt burden of companies, slowing economy due to rising credit rates etc. (I even didnt talk about political risks)..

Also, it seems that government and CB give priority to growth not inflation..so, lira will probably lose more in coming months..but we may see some down this week or next week...depends on CB rate decision..or we see range trading this week between 4.80-4.90 and up next week if not rate hike..

I will not force usdtry drop anymore..just wait for good place to long..but this week may continue like today..despite usd index drop, usdtry is closing almost at same price..4.8360 now..(closed daily candle at ard 4.8450..2 daily doji candle..very indecisive)

I suggest, try to exit your eurtry shorts at breakeven if you have a chance..hopefully some rate hike happen next week..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} i heard that..i dont trust them (fund managers), maybe they want to buy cheap usd/try..i dont see any reason for significant usd/try drop..i think we are just having correction after big surge in recent months before election.. in summary, why i am so bullish in medium and long terms in usd/try.. 1) companies have big amount of fx debts which are increased with dollar surge..and to curb dollar surge Central Bank has belatedly increased interest rates which makes new loans expensive for corporations...as a result, private sector is vulnerable...
this may be useful to have an idea about usdtry expectations.. i m resending this link...Central Bank is selling fx with 1 month, 3 months and 6 months maturity.. banks are buying Us dollar at a higher prices than now..so most of banks are not expecting usd/try drop.. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/conne...230293-mh1BGzW

according to 16 july auction results; CB sold usd at 4.88 for 1 month later delivery..at 5.00 (min) for 3 month later delivery..at 5.20 (min) for 6 months later delivery..so banks are expecting usdtry will be more than 5.00 in 3 months time..

Of course they may also fail to guess correctly..but their expectations are important..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} according to 16 july auction results; CB sold usd at 4.88 for 1 month later delivery..at 5.00 (min) for 3 month later delivery..at 5.20 (min) for 6 months later delivery..so banks are expecting usdtry will be more than 5.00 in 3 months time.. Of course they may also fail to guess correctly..but their expectations are important..
What do u mean? Could you clarify a bit ?
Quoting LukaszH
{quote} What do u mean? Could you clarify a bit ?
Central Bank is selling fx forwards..that means, it is selling Us dollar to banks to deliver 1, 3 or 6 months later..it has started this kind of fx sellings at November 2017..it provides fx liquidity in this way..therefore, CB also is seeing and managing expectations..

On 16 july 2018, it sold 300 million usd at a price of 4.88 (average)..this amount of usd will be delivered to auction winner banks one month later at price of 4.88 (usdtry)..so, we understand that banks are expecting that usdtry price will be at least 4.88 so that they are willing to give this offer at auction..if one month later usdtry will be 4.50, then banks will write 3800 pips (4.50-4.88) loss at each dollar which they bought today..

Similarly, CB sold 100 million usd at a price of 5.00 (average) which will be delivered to banks 3 months later at that price..

And CB sold 100 milions usd at a price of 5.21 (average) which will be delivered to banks 6 months later at that price..

If price of usdtry will be lower at maturity time than those offered today..then banks will suffer fx loss..of course they dont want lose money, so this show us how seriously they are pessimistic about lira..

Hope that clarified enough..

Edit: in other words, auction winner banks has signed agreement today with CB to purchase 300 millions usdtry at an average price of 4.88 one month later..to purchase 100 millions usdtry at an average price of 5.00 three months later..to purchase 100 millions usdtry at an average price of 5.21 six months later..
If price at that time will be higher than those auction prices, then banks profit..if lower they will make a loss..for example, 3 months later if usdtry will be 5.15, then banks will be very happy because they bought today usdtry at a price of 5.00 in condition to get 3 months later..

All in all..banks expect that usdtry will be at least at 4.88 one month later, at 5.00 3 months later, at 5.21 six months later..

Edit 2: auction offers of banks for fx forwards (expectations of banks) changes of course with other developments..for example, if more than expected rate hike happens next week, perhaps they will lower their usdtry expectation for 3-6 months maturity..but today they purchased at these price..and i believe this is important indicator about where we are heading to..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • Post #1,226
  • Quote
  • Edited Jul 17, 2018 7:25am Jul 16, 2018 9:01pm | Edited Jul 17, 2018 7:25am
Long at 4.8550..see how

Edit: closed at 4.84..i ll trade other pairs for a while..it seems until CB rate decision no fun in Try pairs..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Just for people like me i have a large account and have a swap driven account , if you dont have a large account you can get into difficulty , blackwinder is right regarding it if a sell goes up and keep going up your account can be blown , i can wait for falls or spikes down so please be carefull
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
just to show you what trades i have and holding sells


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people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Quoting Aussi
Just for people like me i have a large account and have a swap driven account , if you dont have a large account you can get into difficulty , blackwinder is right regarding it if a sell goes up and keep going up your account can be blown , i can wait for falls or spikes down so please be carefull
I can wait too no worries Lets see what Industrial Production tells us today
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Quoting LukaszH
{quote} I can wait too no worries Lets see what Industrial Production tells us today {image}
nice lots ,swaps nice , and we both wait
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Solid data... Do not expect huge up spikes
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Quoting blackwinter
Long at 4.8550..see how Edit: closed at 4.84..i ll trade other pairs for a while..it seems until CB rate decision no fun in Try pairs..
At last, usdtry decide to move..it is going down..now 4.79..good..hope continue down following days then i can go long at safer levels after CB meeting..interestingly, it broke down when usd index going up..usdtry is playing alone
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Quoting Aussi
just to show you what trades i have and holding sells {image}

Nice!! I can't say I understand all of the details because I am not familiar with the software, but it looks like you have some very good entries.
IN 10h we will have new portion of eco data from TR.

For now I am still bearish until next CB meeting about interest rates. Today I am bit surprise with this small down movement off USD/TRY against USD index. It could means that some Turkish investors bought LIRA today. Anyway before we break 4.78 with good volume there is no place to open the bearish champagne It can go back to 4.84-4.90 easily.

Lets see what next day brings to us
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Quoting Aussi
{quote} nice lots ,swaps nice , and we both wait
I see you're having several trades of 2lot each, is it a cent account?
2lot trade on this pair is, ..., crazy profitable, when being right!
?!? Profit This Year: €136
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} I see you're having several trades of 2lot each, is it a cent account? 2lot trade on this pair is, ..., crazy profitable, when being right!
this is a hedge account mt5 and yes very proffitible , most are 2 lots and has it gets higher i do 5 lots
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Quoting eozdural
{quote} Nice!! I can't say I understand all of the details because I am not familiar with the software, but it looks like you have some very good entries.
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mt5 hedge
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Quoting Aussi
{quote} {image} mt5 hedge
Very nice 3 profitable closings GL with the rest
Quoting LukaszH
{quote} Very nice 3 profitable closings GL with the rest

all up 18 trades from last night to 8am this morning for the day all proffit trades
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Ell done Mr Aussi.
R




Quoting Aussi
{quote} all up 18 trades from last night to 8am this morning for the day all proffit trades
Ronnie Renko
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