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USD/TRY and EUR/TRY 12 replies

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USD/TRY

Morning Aussi....What is the temperature in Ballarat ????
Did not close my sells last night when showing a nice profit....Never mind it is trying to sneak down......Perhaps I should not be so Greedy....
R
R
Ronnie Renko
T/Profit target 4.6804
Ronnie Renko
one win this morning , and sideways it went
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Like watching enamel paint dry in Ballarat mate....My trades are in profit so may close them and watch.....Profit is profit.
Young Ronald
Ronnie Renko
its at resistance now knoking on the door to get up we see if it breaks if not down for a while maybe
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Current account balance worse than expected. Doesn't seem to have affected price.
Quoting MisterWhite
Current account balance worse than expected. Doesn't seem to have affected price.
thats the rise to resistance so we see mate
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Well I just sohrted from .7342 and bugger me I fell to that stop loss at 0.7470 before it tumbled to my tp at 0.7265

Got to love the big boys shorting me out, after cutting me

If you don't respect risk, eventually they'll carry you out.
Flyre All Time Profit: -S$3,372
Quoting blackwinter
Eurusd daily chart looks bullish.. Us index daily chart looks bearish.. Usdtry daily chart looks a bit mixed/bearish..we have tested 4.73-4.74s four times at hourly chart and not broken.. as a result, technically looks quite bearish..i m bearish for tomorrow, sold at 4.7020..4.65 looks reachable.. New econ. Minister B.Albayrak has taken post today from ex-minister M.Simsek..at ceremony, he assured that low inflation is our priority..something like that..so, this also support near term bearishness..but of course market will want to see action at...
I just closed my short (4.70) at ard. 4.765..very frustrating loss wiped most of my monday and tuesday profit..very annoying..i should have waited london open to enter position..btw i m sick of tariff things another annoying thing is Turkish authorities are just watching devaluation of lira as if enjoying it or benefiting from it..even some soothing words from cb president or some high people would help..but they re just watching until things become irreversibly bad..anyway..maybe enjoying with majors is better for me for a while..looking positive side i still have some account growth in this week despite this annoying loss..

Take care guys..this market is sometimes very frustrating..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Good reading..
https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...0aaVv7J3RVeiQ/

Btw i saw on news that Moodys will announce credit outlook of country on Friday..that may cause some volatility also..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Just closed all longs, except 1. Up a little over $750 $1,000 $1,800 today. I think I'm done, for now.
President said today in one occasion that "you will see the fall of dollar soon (against lira) and interest rates also will be dropped.".. talked like that around 17.00 (try time)..then already weak lira have fallen more..and usdtry has reached to above 4.80..now ard 4.84..

It is very clear that you cannot bring down usdtry and interst rates together..so, it is very difficult to understand the logic of such speech..at the end, they will be obliged to rise rates to prevent full colapse of economy..but expense of devaluation increasing..also expense of interests increasing..because they need to increase more when become too late and after May experience, they are late again..now lira is melting..we may reach to 5.00 tomortow considering the momentum today..the question is when central bank will take action or whether they wil take action anyway (or just watch when fx debts burden of private sector become worse which are already at unbearable levels thanks to CB and gov.)..

Be ready for very wild movements..we may see up first fastly.. and down back fastly if CB take action.. CB may increase rates before regular meeting if lira loses more and more, this is risk for longs..

http://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/...lar-da-dusecek

Edit: 4.87 now..i dont have position..just watching..difficult times to trade..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
Quoting blackwinter
President said today in one occasion that "you will see the fall of dollar soon (against lira) and interest rates also will be dropped.".. talked like that around 17.00 (try time)..then already weak lira have fallen more..and usdtry has reached to above 4.80..now ard 4.84.. It is very clear that you cannot bring down usdtry and interst rates together..so, it is very difficult to understand the logic of such speech..at the end, they will be obliged to rise rates to prevent full colapse of economy..but expense of devaluation increasing..also expense...

Don't panic, there is no reason for a devaluation right now. Price of oil is stable and the lira already lost a lot of value quite recently, and nothing has really changed since the last big spike. Unless something suddenly changes in the banking sector, and I don't think anything will, then the lira should bounce around a bit and then go up. The exchange rate even now is very attractive for hedge funds and pension funds that need a certain amount of risk exposure. As long as they don't leverage much, all they need to worry about is a devaluation at this point. Any position the big boys open without very big leverage is going to make them a lot of money in the next few weeks/months. I expect the lira bears are also frightened to get in at such a price, especially since they will have to pay so much rate differential if they get it wrong and end up waiting at a loss. Most likely the lira will bounce around a bit and then go up. The government is not too worried about the lira being soft in the summer because it is very good for tourism and trade and they don't need to make big purchases of natural gas. That's why the president can make confusing speeches which are basically only for internal consumption anyway. If there are any lira bears with positions open at the moment, they will all have stop losses not too far from the current price, if the central bank starts to buy liras the TRY bears are not going to fight it too hard and you will have some more volatility.

Of course my optimism could be because I have a short EURTRY position still open which I am hodling.
Quoting eozdural
{quote} Don't panic, there is no reason for a devaluation right now. Price of oil is stable and the lira already lost a lot of value quite recently, and nothing has really changed since the last big spike. Unless something suddenly changes in the banking sector, and I don't think anything will, then the lira should bounce around a bit and then go up. The exchange rate even now is very attractive for hedge funds and pension funds that need a certain amount of risk exposure. As long as they don't leverage much, all they need to worry about is a devaluation...
i am short eur/try and usd/try swaps on eurtry are very very nice also have more limit sells above kindest regards
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Quoting Aussi
{quote} i am short eur/try and usd/try swaps on eurtry are very very nice also have more limit sells above kindest regards
What are your targets on the short side?
Quoting blackwinter
President said today in one occasion that "you will see the fall of dollar soon (against lira) and interest rates also will be dropped.".. talked like that around 17.00 (try time)..then already weak lira have fallen more..and usdtry has reached to above 4.80..now ard 4.84.. It is very clear that you cannot bring down usdtry and interst rates together..so, it is very difficult to understand the logic of such speech..at the end, they will be obliged to rise rates to prevent full colapse of economy..but expense of devaluation increasing..also expense...
The president said that he wants private banks to help shoulder the burden of lifting the Turkish lira. Knowing him, he could get it done and it would probably work ... short term.
Quoting FabFx
{quote} What are your targets on the short side?
dont realy have a tp just watching it and i take proffit when i think its going to turn but that being said i use tp it around 2000 pips
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Quoting eozdural
{quote} The president said that he wants private banks to help shoulder the burden of lifting the Turkish lira. Knowing him, he could get it done and it would probably work ... short term.
yes but because he like the power
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Quoting FabFx
{quote} What are your targets on the short side?
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Quoting Aussi
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Thanks a lot for sharing. I actually took short position on GBPTRY last night @ 6,4852, took partial profit @ 6,3690.
So very similar to what you did.
Just not very familiar with this pair
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