USD/TRY

Afternoon Aussi.
All is quiet on the battle front
R

Waiting for a long opportunity from 4.76-77 if the price goes there again.

I took buy trades on the gbpaud after the 11.30 a,m Red Flag news.....Looks like a nice bottle of Red for dinner....
R

I took several buys yesterday yesterday but closed them at B/Even to avoid paying swap fees to the thieving Brokers/Bankers

I am not an expert re this pair but you may have a long wait for those levels but what do I know..
R

hi mate its moving around not sure which way it wants to go

a few more good trades

Do you trade gbpaud ? Weekly and daily charts suggest some sell opportunity to me till 1.75 from 1.77...do you agree that ??

Usdtry forecast become more complicated for me after Trump's verbal intervention last Thursday and Friday (probably he will continue to balance Yuan etc. devaluation)..i hope CB raise interest rates on 24th July then we see down movement in usdtry.. therefore, we can reach safer places to go long..however, due to new situation after Trump's words usdtry weakness may continue for days or weeks if expected interest rates occur at CB meeting..if CB wouldnt increase rates at all or less than expectation increase then we can see up spike first..but it is difficult to say what happen at following days since Trumps effect on usd index..

Look at weekly usd index, it suggests some retreat..maybe till to 92s..

My medium - long term forecasts are same as i shared at my previous posts..but, very near term looks mixed to me...

If CB raise rates %1 (median expectation, i think) or higher, then daily 50 ma (at around 4.63 now) can be seen at below..and can be up turning point..if broken down..then we may see 4.50s..this possibility is also quite likey, since usd index's possible down movement for some weeks..

If CB raise rates 0.50..we may see 4h 100 ma (ard 4.72 now) or 200 ma (ard 4.68 now) first, then may go up to 4.90s..

If no rate hike,we probably see 4.90s 5.00s first..then see how things develop..

Only my humble forecasts..

Note: i m just watching nowadays..if i see good long places, i ll be in..

sorry for the late reply i have not beenable to log in ,twee as fixed it for me , no mate i dont trade them unless some one points me to have a look

Know the feeling Aussi....I have been having problems with FF on two of my main computers but O.K on this one..Clearly software issue...Removing cookies may fix the problem but need to be care full not to loose passwords.
R

hi mate i removed cookies and dns cookies and still had the problem for 3 days , if you have a registary repair programme it might help i used it and repaired it it then worked so i guess its worth a try mate

Same here Aussi..3 Days with problem...INTERESTING....Yes I have registry repair programs.
I have two good programs which I have used for years...Fixed the problems.
R
R

How deep is the snow in Ballarat ???? Perhaps the wind is too strong to let it settle.
R

no snow mate but the frost a few days ago was bad , but the wind as been blowing a gail its howling

Okthnks

chance of rate hike is slim. From the point of view of forex traders CB interest rate is a number, but for ordinary people trying to take out bank loans and do business in Turkish Lira it is a real issue and will harm the economy if it keeps going up. President doesn't want that. He prefers to jawbone to reduce USDTRY, and the CB itself is also wary of letting the rate get too high. I will be surprised if it goes up tomorrow.

Mind you, I still have two EURTRY positions open which I am still holding. I don't really know what is going to happen but a non rate hike tomorrow is not really scary from my point of view, the CB Turkish lira interest rate is already plenty high. I think the main thing stopping the TRY from getting stronger is global risk appetite being a bit on the depressed side because of the increasing threat of trade wars. That also doesn't seem to be going away in a hurry, so why am I still short EURTRY? I don't really know.

Interest rate hikes are results of past mistakes in the economy..of course, it is not good for ordinary people..but, for the benefit of whole country and people, there is a need of interest rate hike now..Turkey needs to attract foreign investments since it has a constant foreign trade deficit and current account deficit..longterm foreign investments are better and preferable, however they re not coming recent years due to political and economical instability..so, Turkey has to attract at least shortterm foreign investment to close its ongoing deficits until they solve its peculiar political and economical problems which prevent longterm investors to invest to the country..otherwise, lira will continue to lose its value and inflation will persist in staying at high levels..and then, probably the country will need to pay much more interests to find foreign loans..on the other hand, weaker lira will make fx debt repayments of corporations more difficult, and may lead to bankruptcies.... of course, interest rate hike is not enough alone, it only provides some time to government in order to implement right economic policies..if government doesnt implement necessary and supportive policies to control inflation and to attract long term foreign investments, most probably rate hike tomorrow wont solve the problems of economy..it only provides time to find and implement solutions needed for economy..it is supposed to attract some shortterm foreign investment to bond market due to enticing real interest rates..then lira will be stronger for a while..there will be time to control inflation and manage fx debts of corporations..
But, i dont believe that necessary measures will be taken in economics in near term..so, despite any interest rates, probably we ll see worse situation in the economy in following months (autumn, winter)..i dont have much confidence in economic policy makers in the country..

I think, lira's weakness is partly because of Usd index's strenght in recent months (trade wars, growth in USA etc.)..but it is mostly because of mismanagement of Turkish economics by government and CB at recent years and months..just look at April meeting of CB..it was supposed to increase rates accordingly inflation data but didnt..so, we have seen usdtry travelled from 4.10s to 4.92 until CB was obliged to increase rates %3..and later, it need to rise again and again to curb currency devaluation..look at where we are now..because of increased exchange rate, inflation has rised more than usual also..then we need another rate hike now..if CB would do necessary hike in time on April, interest rates,exchange rate and inflation would be much lower levels..but of course CB is not the only responsible for that..CB couldnt increase rates on April because of political pressure at that time..

Anyway, we re not governing the country and they possibly dont care about what we suggest or think..so, of course, we ll care only for our fx trades here..ordinary people will suffer unfortunately due to increasing rates..yes..but they will indeed suffer due to mismanagement of economics not rate hikes..rate hikes are results..not causes..

For tomorrow, it is difficult to guess..but i feel, rate hike is more likely..no rate hike will be very suprising for me after April meeting experience..but it is difficult to forecast how much they rise..see how..

This Baby is trying to go up.....Needs the strong winds here in Victoria to help it on its way.
R

Afternoon All,
Well the dust has settled for the moment and fortunately I made the right call yesterday as shown by two of my charts.
Must quickly add that although I have been trading for 18+ years I have only been trading this pair for a short time which came about after watching the Master "Aussi" at work...Never too old to learn.
I am looking for a good forex Calander for this pair....Currently have this one"
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar

samet (from Turkey) has forecast 5.5 by the end of the year...O.K we all know that the market moves to its own march but for the everyday folks in Turkey inflation must be a real worry..Some of the Major Food Markets in Assie Land are selling food from Turkey at cheaper prices and I have tried several items and found the quality to be good .
Good Luck to all.
Ronald