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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #221
  • Aug 27, 2017 4:23pm Aug 27, 2017 4:23pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of September 2016 and its 38.2 Fib retracement, which happened in April 2017, the pair has been on a southward move on the monthly time frame since May 2017.

On the weekly time frame, the pair is respecting a resistance trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the high of January 2016. An inner resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of May 2017 has developed, which indicates an increased southward momentum. Two weeks ago, a relatively strong bearish candlestick formed, which rejected the monthly central pivot southward and pierced a strong support zone around the 1.62300 area. However, last week’s candlestick was ambivalent in nature as sellers were only able to take the price just about 130 pips southward before they met resistance from buyers. This candlestick appeared to be a follow through of the bearish pinbar formed three weeks ago. Should sellers maintain control of the order flow, a likely target is the 1.59760 area. Current price action is just about 130 pips shy of the immediate support zone around the 1.59510 area. Should sellers manage to push price southward, that area is likely to be a natural target. This may extend to the 1.57780 area in the next few days. That area marked the low of 2016 and has been so for many years since the low of August 2013. However, should buyers manage to wrestle control of price action, we may see a retest of the immediate support around the 1.62720 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 8, 2016. However, the last sessions on Friday saw buyers taking charge of price action and we may see a retracement northward, possibly to the 30/50 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of August 3, 2017 to last Friday’s low (bound by the two magenta coloured horizontal lines), between 1.62302 and 1.63370.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_27th_August,_2017.png Size: 42 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #222
  • Edited 5:13pm Aug 27, 2017 4:43pm | Edited 5:13pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the downside for some time. However, on the weekly time frame, buyers strongly intervened to push price higher four weeks ago. Nevertheless, lack of follow-through three weeks ago opened an opportunity for bearish price action a week later, resulting in a rejection pinbar around a significant S/R zone breaching the monthly central pivot southward. The immediate barrier is a support trendline (black colour) from the low of September 2012; this is in an area of the confluence of a significant moving average and a major support zone. This area has been tested a couple of times in the past five weeks but not yet broken. Any break of this zone southward, which is between 1.25752 and 1.23910, is likely to give impetus to further bearish momentum. This may first expose the 1.21567/1.21514 area before targeting the 1.19010 handle. However, getting that far is not likely to materialize in the next 2-3 weeks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_27th_August,_2017.png Size: 41 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 9, 2017. Although all technicals point to a bearish continuation, the last session on Friday saw the buyers influential. As price action is in an area of strong support, we may see some sideways operation for the early part of this week; any movement either upward or downward may be limited. It may be advisable to step aside for clarity in price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_27th_August,_2017.png Size: 38 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #223
  • Sep 3, 2017 3:13pm Sep 3, 2017 3:13pm
XAUUSD (GOLD) Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold has been on an upward mode since December 2015. In December 2016, the XAUUSD pair witnessed a 76.8 Fib retracement of this move following a drop from the high of July 2016. Since then, the pair has been on the northward mode and an ascending trendline on the monthly time frame (forest green colour) is still in play. However, current price action is in the vicinity of a significant resistance zone on the monthly time frame and we may see some sideways operation or pullback as price action moves further up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, the order flow has been strongly under the control of buyers since July 2017. Last week, a strong bullish candlestick showed the intent of buyers to follow through the bullish rejection candlesticks formed in the previous three weeks. The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further northward move, which may target the immediate resistance around the 1338.20 area; this area was last visited in November 2016 and marked the origin of a strong bearish move to the low of December 2016. Note that a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) is operating from the high of August 2011 and may have to be decisively breached northward for this to materialize. Should this happen, this is likely to expose the 1375.40 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action, which has been operating in an ascending channel (bound by magenta coloured lines) for much of July and August, recently moved distally and broke the upper channel line. It is now respecting a support trendline (navy colour) and operating above the monthy central pivot. In view of the bigger picture on the monthly time frame where buyers are dominant and the weekly time frame where the order flow is under the control of buyers, this move is indicative of an increase in momentum for further northward move. Thus, we may see further upward move, perhaps to the 1330.0 area, before any pullback occurs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Sept._3,_2017.png Size: 36 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #224
  • Sep 3, 2017 3:42pm Sep 3, 2017 3:42pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

On this pair, the last three weeks have produced three bearish pinbars; which suggests that we can have confidence in a bearish continuation. Price action has been in an area of a confluence of support for a while. However, last week the support trendline from the low of January 2013 (chocolate colour) was threatened. Also, even though the horizontal support level around the 1.23570 area was tested last week, it was not broken. However, as there is a strong likelihood of a bearish continuation, a break of this level may target the next ‘minor’ support around the 1.22195 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action whch had moved southward about 100 pips from an area of technical value or mean, retraced northward during the last session on Friday. Much likely we may see a retracement to the 32.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing low last week Friday from the high of 1.26642 before momentum for a southward continuation materializes. This area is between 1.24340 and 1.24700 (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Sept._3,_2017.png Size: 34 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #225
  • Sep 3, 2017 4:00pm Sep 3, 2017 4:00pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the 32.8 Fib retracement in May 2017 of the swing low from the high of January 2016 to the low of January 2017, the pair continues its decline. The pinbar formed on the weekly time frame last week indicates further bearish move and the technicals on the weekly time frame are in sync. However, it should be noted that current price action is around a minor support (the 1.59995 area). Should price action breach this support, this may expose the 1.57360 handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, since June 2017, price action has been operating within a descending channel (bound in navy coloured lines). Last week Wednesday, it rejected the distal channel line with a strong bearish engulfing candlestick. This was followed up on Friday with another bearish move. Overall price wave formation indicates a third wave heading southward and we may expect this move to target the 1.57390 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The descending channel seen on the daily time frame (bound in navy coloured lines) is pronounced on the H4 time frame and the third price wave, which is bearing southward, is in play. Technically, nothing on the H4 time frame suggests anything different from a bearish continuation. And this move may target somewhere between 1.59995 and 1.59863 before a retracement occurs.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Sept._3,_2017.png Size: 35 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #226
  • Sep 3, 2017 4:56pm Sep 3, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting KeenPips
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook On this pair, the last three weeks have produced three bearish pinbars; which suggests that we can have confidence in a bearish continuation. Price action has been in an area of a confluence of support for a while. However, last week the support trendline from the low of January 2013 (chocolate colour) was threatened. Also, even though the horizontal support level around the 1.23570 area was tested last week, it was not broken. However, as there is a strong likelihood of a bearish continuation, a break of this level...
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for price action to retrace to the 32.8 Fib zone, which is between 1.24340 and 1.24700 (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines on the H4 chart) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #227
  • Sep 7, 2017 12:40pm Sep 7, 2017 12:40pm
If you are tracking the EURUSD, you may be mindful of the fact that the momentum for a northward push is decreasing. Current price action is pushing to an area (around the 1.20210 area) that is just about 100 pips to a significant resistance area (around the 1.21225 area) on the monthly time frame. Although technically the pair is in a northward mode, a retracement is in the offing. Personally, I will wait for a retracement to around the inner ascending trendline on the H4 time frame (magenta colour) to see if a northward trade is feasible or a break for a southward move towards the next or outer trendline (navy colour). See attachments below.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #228
  • Sep 7, 2017 12:51pm Sep 7, 2017 12:51pm
As a short-term swing trader.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
....Personally, I will wait for a retracement to around the inner ascending trendline on the H4 time frame (magenta colour) to see if a northward trade is feasible or a break for a southward move towards the next or outer trendline (navy colour). See attachments below. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image} {image}
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  • #229
  • Sep 10, 2017 4:39pm Sep 10, 2017 4:39pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued to maintain an upward mode. On the weekly time frame, last week price action edged further up toward the significant resitance around the 1.21225 area but failed to reach it. The area was traversed southward in December 2014 by price action and had not been hit after two bullish attempts in the last two weeks. The last sessions during last week saw the bears pushing price back from the high of 1.20917; which is just about 30 pips shy of the resistance zone in the 1.21225 area. This may result in the bulls making a strong move to take out the zone this week on a third attempt. This area however, is the 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of May 2014 to the low of January 2017 and may result in a southward turnaround. Thus, there is little room for a bullish move given that price action is in a confluence zone of resistance on monthly time frame and 50 Fib retracement from a drop from the high of May 2014.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has been respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 17, 2017. However, price action has moved away upward to respect an inner support trendline (saddlebrown colour), which is indicative of an increase in northward momentum. As long as the inner trendline is intact, northward trading should be a more feasible bias than southward trading. The daily candlestick formed on Friday last week was miniature relative to Thursday’s daily candlestick and saw an attempt by sellers to resist further upward move of price action. Nevertheless, price action has been limited to operate within an ascending wedge and two price waves are evident within the wedge. Is this a toping formation? There may be need to wait for clarity in price action because a significant horizontal resistance zone (around the 1.21225 area) is less than 70 pips above the wedge while the immediate horizontal support is in the 1.19528 area, which is about 75 pips below the current location of price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating around the distal end of an ascending wedge seen on the daily time frame and respecting a mini support trendline (magenta colour). Should the trendline be breached southward, price action is likely to target the proximal part of the wedge around the 1.19174 area and, by extension, may expose the monthly central pivot around 1.18800. Such a move is likely to be corrective in nature as the major technical outlook is bullish and the support trendlines on the daily time frame are still in tact.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #230
  • Edited 5:15pm Sep 10, 2017 4:54pm | Edited 5:15pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued its descent. On the monthly time frame, the order flow is clearly in favour of further bearish move. Recent price action is just 110 pips shy of the immediate significant support zone in the 1.19015 area. As this is the first strong move of price action to return to that area since January 2015, we may see further move to target the zone. The technicals on the monthly time frame are in sync for further southward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_Monthly_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 29 KB


On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a descending wedge and is presently at the proximal end of the wedge upon a third price wave. Besides, price action is at an area of support on the weekly time frame. Last week a relatively big bearish candlestick was formed which gave a strong intent that bears would follow through the bearish pin bar formed two weeks ago. The technicals on the weekly time frame are in support of further southward move. Such a move is likely to target the immediate support zone around the 1.19015 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 32 KB


The order flow on the H4 time frame is clearly under the control of bears. However, last Friday’s sessions bulls pushing back price towards an area of value. The constellation of H4 bullish candlesticks formed on Friday portends a further pullback of price. The immediate area of value for such a pullback is likely to be the 38.2 Fiib zone of the most recent swing low from the high of August 31, 2017; this is between 1.22155 and 1.23097 (bound in magenta horizontal lines). The medium-and long-term technicals on the H4 time frame support further southward, advisably after the short-term pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 29 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #231
  • Sep 10, 2017 5:04pm Sep 10, 2017 5:04pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPCAD continues bearing southward. On the weekly time frame, a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) is being respected. However, in the past three weeks price action has been in a ranging operation. Last week’s candlestick showed a bullish bias and we may see a northward push early this week before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 30 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a descending triangle (bound in magenta coloured lines). The most recent candlesticks are bullish and have pushed price distally in the triangle. We may expect pice action to move furher upward, perhaps to test the origin of the bearish drop of September 6, 2017, around the 1.62167 area. This area is proximal to the 61.8 Fib zone of the swing down from the high of August 31, 2017 to the low of September 6, 2017. This is also in confluence with a resistance area on the daily time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_10th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 32 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #232
  • Edited 5:15pm Sep 17, 2017 4:05pm | Edited 5:15pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued on an upward move after a retracement to the 127.275 area. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of June 2017. As long as this trendline is intact, a bullish bias could be maintained. The major horizontal resistance is at the 133.710 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_17th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


On the daily time frame, price action was operating in a horizontal channel (bound in magenta-coloured horizontal lines) and made two price waves since August 3, 2017 with the second price wave hitting the distal channel line and breaking above it last week Friday. The most recent price action is respecting a mini support trendline (navy colour) and price action made a 61.8 Fib retracement to the trendline on September 5, 2017. The last trading sessions last week Friday saw the bears pushing price southward and we may expect a pullback to the trendline, perhaps to around the 130.890 area before further northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_17th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 34 KB


Price action on the H4 time frame is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame. However, from the most recent price action last week Friday, a resistance trendline (magenta colour) is emerging. Should price action validate this resistance trendline on Monday, we may expect bears to drive price southward, initially to retest th distal cannel line around 131.62, which is about 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing high on the H4 time frame. This appears to be a more feasible price action technically as the price is too far, more than 100 pips, from the mean vaue area. Nevertheless, we may witness a period of consolidation, particularly on lower tine frames, before such a southward move materializes. As the major market outook is bullish technically, such a southward move to test the support trendline (navy colour) may be merely corrective. However, should that support trendline be broken, particularly on a daily close, we may see a negation of the bullish bias and the next support around the 129.600 area will be exposed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_17th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 37 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #233
  • Edited 5:01pm Sep 17, 2017 4:19pm | Edited 5:01pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has a bullish disposition on the monthly time frame and a support trendline (forest green colour) from the low of April 2017 is intact. However, price action has moved into an area of resistance and we may see a period of range trading before clarity of technical outlook is got.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_Monthly_17th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 32 KB


On the weekly time frame, a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of March 2017 is closely aligned with the support trendline (forest green colour) seen on the monthly time frame and very much respected. But recent price action has moved too far from this trendline and from the mean, and it is within a resistance zone. Thus, we may likely see a pull back before any further bullish momentum. However, this does not preclude the market from driving price farther up towards the immediate resistance zone around the 1.38140 area. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that apart from the horizontal resistance, price action may have to contend with the resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of June 2015.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_17th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 34 KB


Price action on the H4 time frame has been parabolic. It has moved further up from the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the daily time frame. It respected a support trendline (magenta colour) in August 2017 and then moved further upward to respect an inner support trendline (red colour) from the low of September 5, 2017. The most recent price action has moved upward about 470 pips away from this inner trendline. Very much likely, a retracement is in the offing. Such a retracement may be a retest of the trendline or the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines), between 1.33063 and 1.32467. However, as the most recent H4 candlestick is bullish and apparently re-targeting the highest price level formed on Friday, we may see a temporary upward move of price action or, perhaps, a period of range trading on lower time frames before heading southward for the retracement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_17th_September,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #234
  • Edited 4:46pm Sep 17, 2017 4:26pm | Edited 4:46pm
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has moved upward after a period of consolidation in August 2017. On the weekly time frame, last week, price action hit a resistance area (around the 1.88020 area) which it traversed southward in April 2017. However, the price action during the latter part of the week saw bears pushing price back a bit after a strong bullish move. We may see price action going further upward to around the 1.90427 area. The area represents the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_17th_Seot.,_2017.png Size: 34 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline from the low of August 18, 2017 and the momentum increased last week Thursday. However, the momentum reduced on Friday as bears managed to push price back to the 1.86195 area, which is a minor S/R area last tranversed southward on May 22, 2017. This area may witness a consolidating price action or pullback to the support trendline before further bullish move. At any rate, a pullback is in the offing as price is too far from an area of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action has moved further upward from the support trendline (navy colour) seen on the D1. It is now respecting an inner suppot trendline (magenta colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. The sessions on Friday resulted in a topping formation, including two bearish pinbars, at a significant resistance zone around the 1.86195 area. Apparently, a retracement southward is in the offing. A likely target of such a retracement is the inner support trendline (magnta) or the confluence zone of a minor support area and the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing high (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines), spanning 1.84997 and 1.83531.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_17th_Sept.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #235
  • Sep 17, 2017 4:48pm Sep 17, 2017 4:48pm
I am bullish on this pair. However, should price action produce a bearish signal rejecting the resistance trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame southward, I will look for a sell trade opportunity and target the 130.650 area. A buy trade will become feasible if price action significantly breaks above the resistance trendline (magenta colour), bounces off the distal channel line around the 131.62 area northward or bounces off the support trendline (navy colour) northward.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has continued on an upward move after a retracement to the 127.275 area. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of June 2017. As long as this trendline is intact, a bullish bias could be maintained. The major horizontal resistance is at the 133.710 area. {image} On the daily time frame, price action was operating in a horizontal channel (bound in magenta-coloured horizontal lines) and made two price waves since August 3, 2017 with the second...
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  • #236
  • Sep 17, 2017 5:02pm Sep 17, 2017 5:02pm
Technically, a bullish mode appears to be in play but a bullish continuation is not likely to be sustainable given the location of current price action; there is a confluence of resistance around and near this location. Besides, recent price action has moved parabolically northward and too far from the mean value area. Therefore, a much likely and more feasible bias, at least in the short term and until a further significant technical change, will be to act on a bearish mode. Thus, from a technical perspective, a retracement southward is likely to provide at least 300 pips trade opportunity.

I may be wrong Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has a bullish disposition on the monthly time frame and a support trendline (forest green colour) from the low of April 2017 is intact. However, price action has moved into an area of resistance and we may see a period of range trading before clarity of technical outlook is got. {image} On the weekly time frame, a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of March 2017 is closely aligned with the support trendline (forest green colour) seen on the monthly time frame and very much respected. But recent...
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  • #237
  • Sep 17, 2017 5:09pm Sep 17, 2017 5:09pm
I see the possibility of benefiting from both a bearish and a bullish move on this pair. In the short term, a bearish move is likely to present an opportunity for at least 150 pips from the current location of price action, perhaps after a period of sideways operation. Should price move southward, a signal for bullish continuation around the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone (or a bounce off the inner trendline (magenta colour) is likely to produce an equally positive trade, which may be more rewarding as the bulls had shown an intent to revisit the 1.89020, which was last transversed in April 2017 and may expose the 1.90420 handle. However, should price action break below the outer support trendline (navy colour), a bearish bias is more likely to be sustainable.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Quoting KeenPips
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook Price action on this pair has moved upward after a period of consolidation in August 2017. On the weekly time frame, last week, price action hit a resistance area (around the 1.88020 area) which it traversed southward in April 2017. However, the price action during the latter part of the week saw bears pushing price back a bit after a strong bullish move. We may see price action going further upward to around the 1.90427 area. The area represents the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame. {image} On the...
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  • #238
  • Sep 24, 2017 4:06pm Sep 24, 2017 4:06pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has maintained its bullish tone . However, on the weekly time frame the momentum appears to be waning with the candlestick formed last week less bullish than the one formed two weeks ago. Besides, the current price action on the pair is around a weekly S/R zone and we may have a period of sideways operation in the early part of this week before clarity of direction is established. This location is aligned with the 78.6 Fib retracement area of the swing down from the high of May 2015 to the low of June 2016 and also the 61.8 Fib retracement area of the swing down from the high of December 2014 to the the low of June 2016.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action is respecting an outer support trendline (navy colour) and an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) on the daily time frame and as long as the trendlines are still intact, a bullish disposition will be maintained. A sideways pattern is clearly seen on the daily time frame during the last four days of lart week. Also, a wedge pattern is also discernible through the resistance trenndline (magenta colour) on the highs of the daily candlesticks, and two price waves have been formed within the wedge. A third price wave is likely to bear southward and target the outer support trendline (navy colour) or the horizontal support around the 130.066 area, which is in confluence with the monthly central pivot.

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A wedge pattern has been formed by recent price action on the H4 time frame (bound in magenta coloured lines). As seen on the daily time frame, two price waves are visible and a third is bearing southward. This may lead to the break of the wedge southward and target the minor support zone on the H4 time frame aound the 131.325 area, which is a 61.8 Fib retracement level of the most recent swing high from the outer support trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame; this descent may extend to the 130.600 area – which is the 78.6 Fib retracement area, and retest the inner support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daily time frame.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #239
  • Sep 24, 2017 5:04pm Sep 24, 2017 5:04pm
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a break of the wedge on the H4 time frame, around the 133.285 area, before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has maintained its bullish tone . However, on the weekly time frame the momentum appears to be waning with the candlestick formed last week less bullish than the one formed two weeks ago. Besides, the current price action on the pair is around a weekly S/R zone and we may have a period of sideways operation in the early part of this week before clarity of direction is established. This location is aligned with the 78.6 Fib retracement area of the swing down from the high of May 2015 to the low of June 2016...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #240
  • Edited 5:02pm Oct 1, 2017 4:13pm | Edited 5:02pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish rejection candlestick, in the shape of a pinbar, formed on the monthly time frame last month gives a high probability of a southward orientation on this pair. This candlestick was formed around a significant resistance zone. A support trendline (chocolate colour) is noticeable on the monthly time frame, but price action is too far from the trendline. We may expect price action to move towards retesting the trendline in the weeks ahead.

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On the weekly time frame, a bearish continuation pattern is maintained following through the rejection of a significant resistance zone four weeks ago with a strong bearish pinbar last week, which pierced a weekly S/R zone southward around the 1299.50 area. Price action is respecting the support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the monthly time frame. Together with a resistance trendline from the high of April 2017 (navy colour) we can see an ascending channel (or expanding wedge?) formed from the support trendline (chocolate colour), and price action is operating within it. Three price waves have been formed within the channel and a fourth is bearing southward. The immediate significant, horizontal support is around the 1236.20 area and may be a natural target of bears in the weeks ahead. This area is just 400 pips from the current location of price action.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within a descending channel (bound in magenta-coloured lines) and the technical are pointing towards futher bearish move. But as the most recent price action on the H4 time frame saw the bull resisting further southward move, we may expect a brief pull back towards an area of value, perhaps around the 1290.90 – 1295.70 zone (bound by horizontal magenta-coloured lines) before the southward move continues. This zone is the immediate minor resistance and is in confluence with the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the most recent significant swing on the H4 time frame .

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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