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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #441
  • Aug 12, 2018 3:45pm Aug 12, 2018 3:45pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on GBPUSD carved out a descending channel (black) on the monthly time frame. Three price waves have completed within the channel and a fourth, bearing southward, kicked in at channel resistance in April 2018. Presently, price action is operating below the monthly pivot and has entered a horizontal support around the 1.26650 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, recent price action has seen a series of consolidation since the end of April 2018. Last week, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick which broke down a recent consolidation. It moved into a horizontal support zone around the 1.26790 area but bulls checkmated its southward momentum. We may see some sideways operation, or even a pullback, of price action in the early part of this week but the major market disposition is technically southward.

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The daily time frame indicates that price action has moved strongly southward and apparently far from the mean value area. We may see a pullback of price action to the broken down horizontal support around the 1.30100 area. We should also be aware of a descending trendline (red) which may act as resistance.

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Price action on the H4 time frame has moved southward of an outer descending trendline (red) seen on the daily time frame and is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta). This is an indication of an increase in momentum, which is likely to be corrected with a pullback to a broken down support area. Even though the most recent price action last week Friday saw bulls take the market a bit northward, it was in the context of a minor consolidation. However, there may still be a further northward pullback to an area of value; and there are many such areas on the H4 time frame. But the previous support around 1.30100 (i.e. 1.29530/1.30100), bound by horizontal blue lines, has a greater potential; it is a confluence of the 61.8 Fib retracement of the recent drop from the monthly pivot as well as being a round number area. At any rate, wherever market decides to turn around should be of interest knowing that technically the market favours the bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_12th_August,_2018.png Size: 57 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #442
  • Aug 19, 2018 2:23pm Aug 19, 2018 2:23pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward momentum on the AUDUSD market has not been smooth. On the weekly time frame, the market has seen a series of sideways since February 2018. Two weeks ago, price action broke below a horizontal channel where it has been in consolidation for seven weeks. However, there was no bearish follow-up last week as price action printed a bullish pinbar. This may lead to a retest of the broken down horizontal channel, perhaps around the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago, i.e. 0.74310. We should also note a descending trendline (red), formed by the most recent highs, which may be a resistance to a bullish move. A southward turnaround is likely to see bears target the horizontal support around the 0.71480 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the H4 time frame is disposed northward. An ascending trendline (black) has formed and is in play as support. We may see bulls take price action further forward but we should expect a period of sideways or even bearish pullback. A pullback to the ascending trendline (black) may lead to further bullish move but we may see a strong reaction for a southward turnaround near the 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame; the area is in confluence with a minor horizontal resistance around the 0.73640 area. By extension, we may see bulls target a retest of the monthly pivot, around 0.74030; which is in confluence with the 78.6 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame and potentially a strong area for a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_August_19,_2018.png Size: 52 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #443
  • Aug 19, 2018 3:20pm Aug 19, 2018 3:20pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has disposed southward for quite a long while. Last week, the market printed a relatively big bearish candlestick which turned out with a long lower tail. This is an indication that bulls are putting up a strong fight. Thus, we may see a northward move next week, perhaps of a corrective nature.

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On the daily time frame, price action has rejected an outer descending trendline (red) and is now respecting an inner descending trendline (black); which is an indication of an increase in southward momentum. However, last week Thursday, price action printed a hammer-like candlestick and it was followed through on Friday by bulls. Technically, the bulls are favoured to take price action further northward. However, we may see them meet some barriers around the inner descending trendline (black) and the horizontal resistance around the 1204.00 area. Thus, technically, I don’t expect price action to get too far before a southward turnaround.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (black). Four waves have been formed in the channel, and a fifth is bearing northward. Should bulls be successful in taking price action northward to complete a fifth wave, we may see a southward turnaround at the channel resistance. Otherwise, a minor horizontal resistance located around 1191.50 may be a barrier to further northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #444
  • Aug 19, 2018 3:35pm Aug 19, 2018 3:35pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The last few weeks have seen the GBPUSD market favour bears. However, the doji-like candlestick printed last week is likely to change that, at least on a temporary basis. We may experience a northward pullback in the market, leading to a retest of the high of the weekly candlestick printed two weeks ago, i.e. around the 1.30130 area. This area adjoins the immediate horizontal resistance. At any rate, as a doji-like candlestick represents a struggle between bulls and bears and is ambivalent, we may have to wait for further price action, in the early part of this week, for directional clarity.

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On the daily time frame, the order flow context favors bears and a resistance trendline (navy) is in play. Thus, although bulls are taking the market on a northward retracement, we may expect them to meet some barriers in the shape of the resistance trendline (navy) or the horizontal resistance around the 1.29580 area. Besides, a minor horizontal resistance is around the 1.28340 area. Technically, those areas are potential southward turnaround areas.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_August_19,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #445
  • Aug 19, 2018 3:59pm Aug 19, 2018 3:59pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Two weeks ago, the EURUSD market traded southward in breach of a consolidation it has been operating in for several weeks. Last week, bulls took the market a bit northwad in retracement but there was not much momentum to retest the broken consolidation area. As the price action printed a bullish pinbar last week, we may see bulls make further attempt to push price northward in the early part of this week. Should bulls take price action further northward, the next major horizontal resistance is around 1.15690 and represents the base of the broken down consolidation. We should note that the bullish pinbar printed last week is around an ascending trendline (red) from December 2016 and may act as support for a bulls. However, a breakdown of the trendline may expose the 1.11160 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action printed an evening star towards the middle of last week and bulls took price action further northward. The current location of price action is around a broken down ascending trendline (red) seen on the weekly time frame. Should bulls trade above the trendline, they may retest the broken down horizontal support around the 1.15690 area; and of course, a retest of a descending trendline (black) from recent highs is an extended target. Otherwise, we may see a southward turnaround leading bears to target the horizontal support around 1.12780 before they turn attention to the 1.11160 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the most recent price action is under the influence of bulls and we may see them take price action further northward. A descending trendline (magenta) is at play and may be an immediate barrier to bulls. However, a major horizontal resistance, which may be a natural target of bulls, is the 1.15690 area. The area is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame and it is a potential area for a southward turnaround. Thus, should price action fail to turn southward earlier, the 1.15690 area is likely to see a significant southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_August_19,_2018.png Size: 57 KB



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #446
  • Aug 26, 2018 2:55pm Aug 26, 2018 2:55pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The relatively big bearish candlestick with a long lower tail printed on the weekly time frame two weeks ago had a strong bullish follow-up last week. Bulls pushed price action towards the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago but were restrained by bears. The next horizontal resistance is just a few pips away around the 1211.20 area. Should bulls break the resistance, we may see them target the minor horizontal resistance around the 1222.30 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has broken an inner descending trendline (black) from recent highs but an outer trendline (red) is still intact and may act as resistance. A minor ascending trendline (magenta) is operating as counter to the main trendline and is being respected by recent price action. This is an indication that bulls are still favoured to be influential in the market until a breakdown of the trendline. We may see further northward move but the momentum may be hindered by the horizontal resistance around the 1205.00/1217.00 area. The area is likely to see a sideways of price action and even a southward pushback. Nevertheless, as the weekly time frame is technically disposed for a longer-term southward market, we may see the current bullish influence as a temporary show. A bearish setup on the D1 time frame within the MAs’ channel (or mean area) or a breakdown of the ascending trendline (magenta) is likely to give impetus to a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #447
  • Aug 26, 2018 3:09pm Aug 26, 2018 3:09pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD narket has been sideways in the past three weeks. Last week, price action retraced northward; threatening the high of the bearish candlestick printed three weeks ago but failed as bears managed to resist the move. This led to the printing of a bearish pinbar around an S/R zone, the 1.29470 area. We may see bears seize the initiative to push price action further southward this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, the market is operating in a descending channel (black). However, the attempt by bulls to take price action northward in the channel last week Monday and Tuesday did not materialize as bears intervened and the market entered a consolidation. As the candlesticks printed since last week Thursday have been in favour of bears, we may see a southward turnaround this week should bears maintain their influence. Nevertheless, should market decide otherwise, at least on a temporary basis, the immediate resistance around 1.29900 may be exposed by bulls. However, I will see such a northward move as temporary in nature.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action has formed a minor triangle (magenta) and recent price action is squeezed around its tip. The triangle resistance seems to being rejected by price action, giving the printing of bearish candlesticks with upper wicks around triangle resistance. However, technically, only a southward break of the triangle, with a retest of the broken support trendline (triangle base) on a H4 closing basis will provide an impetus for a southward trading opportunity.

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I am bearish GBPUSD but I will step aside for now until I see a significant bearish setup.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #448
  • Edited 4:49pm Aug 26, 2018 3:26pm | Edited 4:49pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is generally in a consolidation phase but currently disposed northward. On the weekly time frame, the bullish pinbar printed two weeks ago was followed up with about a 245-pip northward move last week. We may see a further bullish move this week, particularly if bulls are able to clear the immediate minor resistance around 1.16840/1.17830. The next significant resistance is around the 1.19260 area, which is in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement zone of the downward move from the high of February 2018 to the present low of August 2018. Besides, we can see an ascending channel (red) within which price action has been operating for quite a while. Three price waves have been formed within the channel and a fourth, disposing northward, is being started by bulls around the channel support. Thus, basically, the short-term orientation favours the bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (black). The most significant horizontal resistance is around the 1.18410 area. But for bulls to get to that area, they will have to clear the resistance around the 1.17400 area. Nevertheless, technically, bulls are favoured to be influential in the market in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_August_26,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #449
  • Sep 2, 2018 3:03pm Sep 2, 2018 3:03pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD is technically disposed southward on the weekly time frame. Price action is respecting a descending trendline (black) from April 2018. Three weeks ago, the market printed a a bearish candlestick with a long bottom tail and it positioned price action for a bullish follow-up two weeks ago. However, last week, there was a keen contest between bulls and bears resulting in the printing of an indecision candlestick. Given the bullish nature of the earlier two candlesticks, we are likely to see bulls continue to take price action further northward, but on a temporary basis in my opinion. There are a few barriers northward, including a horizontal resistance around the 1223.65 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has moved below the descending trendline (black) seen on the weekly time frame and is respecting an inner trendline (red). The most recent price action placed the market in a sideways mode after an earlier bullish retracement. Looking left, an upper area of previous consolidation or price compression is very near the present location of price, indicating that we are not likely to see bulls have a stroll in the park – price action wise. We are likely to see further sideways of price action, perhaps a brief northward move, but bears are technically poised to seize the initiative.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge (magenta). Presently it is located around wedge support but the lower wicks on the most recent candlesticks indicate the likelihood of some northward move, perhaps to retest the wedge resistance or the resistance zone around the 1208.15 area. Given the higher time frame’s bearish disposition, we may see the bears seize the initiative after the brief northward pullback. A possible initial target of a bearish drive is the horizontal support around the 1282.20 area, which may extend to the 1169.40 area. I am bearish XAUUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_H4_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #450
  • Sep 2, 2018 3:09pm Sep 2, 2018 3:09pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURJPY market has been in consolidation for a while. Last week, price action printed a bearish pinbar around a horizontal S/R area on the weekly time frame. This is likely to be followed by a southward move this week. The 126.500 area is likely to be a target of bears should they manage to seize the initiative.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_W1_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has breached an ascending trendline (red) from the low of August 2018. Last week Friday, the last two sessions ended up printing an inside bar. The wicky nature of the printed candlesticks calls for caution. The candlesticks were printed around a horizontal support zone and we may see some sideways price action in the early part of this week. We can not rule out the possibility of price action retracing to retest the broken down ascending trendline (red) or the 129.420/129.700 zone – which was a previous minor horizontal support zone. However, such a move is likely to be temporary in nature. I am bearish EURJPY.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_H4_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #451
  • Sep 2, 2018 3:22pm Sep 2, 2018 3:22pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward move on the GBPUSD market that had been in place for quite a while was interrupted three weeks ago by a northward pullback. The pullback resulted in a testing of the previous support zone turned resistance around the 1.30450 area. The aftermath of the price action on the weekly time frame was the printing of a bullish candlestick with an upper wick; which is an indication that bears stepped in to restrain further northward move. Thus, we may expect a struggle between bulls and bears in the early part of this week. However, technically, the weekly time frame indicates that bears may have the last laugh.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (red). Recent price action is bearing southward from channel resistance and we can expect to see further southward move this week. However, as price action is located around a minor S/R zone, the 1.29420/1.30450 area, we may see a sideways operation in the market before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 53 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (magenta) from the low of August 2018. A break of the trendline is likely to be a validation of a bearish momentum. Nevertheless, given the recent technical patterns in the bigger descending channel (red) on the H4 time frame, a period of brief northward retracement in the early part of this week, which may lead to a retest of the minor resistance around 1.29750/1.30110 zone, is likely to give way to a bearish turnaround. I am bearish GBPUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 59 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #452
  • Sep 2, 2018 3:37pm Sep 2, 2018 3:37pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the AUDUSD market was disposed northward for a while, price action continued a southward move last week. It printed a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick on the weekly time frame, which entered a horizontal support zone around the 0.71550 area. We may expect a sideways of price action in the early part of this week. In fact, a northward pullback is much likely given the fact that the bearish candlestick printed last week was too far from the mean value area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, the market is operating in a downward channel and the most recent price action is bearing southward within it. Technically, bears are favoured to control the market but we may have a pullback of price action to retest the broken down minor horizontal support around the 0.72440 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action experienced a parabolic southward move for much of last week, respecting a minor descending trendline (black). Technically, such a move is not likely to be sustainable. It will likely require a northward pullback before a southward continuation can be validated. The 0.72730 area is likely to be an area we may expect price action to retrace to; the area is a confluence of a previous minor horizontal support and the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame. Thereafter, a southward turnaround is likely to gather steam.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 56 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #453
  • Sep 2, 2018 3:48pm Sep 2, 2018 3:48pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has disposed southward since April 2018. However, there was a period of sideways operation particularly in June and July 2018. On the weekly time frame, bulls took control of price action three weeks ago after a print of a bullish candlestick. There was a bullish follow through two weeks ago. However, last week,price action printed a bearish pinbar, which is likely to see bears seize the initiative for a southward continuation this week. However, we may see a pullback before a southward momentum materializes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (red). Recent price action is bearing southward from channel resistance and we can expect to see further southward move this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1_Sept._2,_2018.png Size: 52 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has rejected an ascending channel (black) from the low of August 2018. The most recent price action has entered a minor horizontal support and the area is currently witnessing some reaction. The bearish candlestick printed in the penultimate session last week Friday faced some bullish resistance and the candlestick printed in the last session was in favour of bulls. Thus, we can expect some sideways operation of price action or even a reracement before a southward continuation. The 1.16240/1.16620 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is likely to be a target of any northward move by bulls, which is likely to be temporary in nature. I am bearish EURUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_Sept._2,_2018_001.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #454
  • Sep 9, 2018 3:12pm Sep 9, 2018 3:12pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market has continued its bearish disposition after a bullish upswing experienced four weeks ago. On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick which was a strong follow through of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. The technical are disposed in favour of the bears. An inner descending trendline (black) is in play as resistance after price action moved further below an outer descending trendline (red) from the high of February 2018. Should bears continue the southward momentum, we may see them target the horizontal support around the 0.68730 area; of course, getting there will involve some brief period of northward pullback or sideways of price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (black). Presently, the market has entered the channel support and we may experience a retracement into an area of value within the channel, say, the previous horizontal support around 0.71900/0.72160 for a role-flip, before momentum for further southward move can be sustained.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_Sept._9,_2018.png Size: 55 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #455
  • Edited 9:16pm Sep 9, 2018 3:18pm | Edited 9:16pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although, I largely operate by a technical mode, I am aware of the significant influence of Brexit on the ambivalent market situation on the GBPUSD. It has been a see-saw for quite a while and the miniature/indecision candlesticks printed in the past three months are a testimony to this. On the weekly time frame, bulls took price action on a temporary retracement in the past four weeks. Last week, price action printed an indecision candlestick on the weekly time frame. We may have to wait for clarity in market direction this week as price action is presently located around a previous support zone. Are we going to have a role flip immediately, or will there be a further northward move – perhaps for a short distance – or a sideways before a southward turnaround? We should also be mindful of an ascending trendline (red) from January 2017 which may be a reaction area or support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (black) and recent price action is consolidating just below the trendline. Last week Friday, a bearish pinbar was printed at a horizontal resistance and in confluence with the trendline. However, being a Friday, we may not read much to the pinbar. We should wait for how price action plays out in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_Sept._9,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #456
  • Sep 9, 2018 3:22pm Sep 9, 2018 3:22pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Last week, I expected the EURUSD market to experience a strong bearish move because of the bearish pinbar which printed around a support zone on the weekly time frame two weeks ago. Although there was generally a bearish reaction, price action first experienced about 50 Fib retracement before a southward move last week. This, of course, favoured my trading style as I usually trade the 50/61.2 Fib retracements of pinbars using a limit order. Last week, price action printed another bearish pinbar. This was printed at a confluence of a horizontal support and an ascending trendline (red) from January 2017. I believe this is likely to lead to a further southward move this week. An initial target of such a southward move is likely to be the horizontal support around the 1.14370 area, but bears may feel emboldened to extend their ambition to the 1.13070 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a small triangular consolidation (magenta). The candlestick patterns in the preceding price action sequences, basically a down trend, indicate that we may likely have a southward break of the triangle. I am bearish EURUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #457
  • Sep 10, 2018 10:53pm Sep 10, 2018 10:53pm
Quoting KeenPips
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The EURJPY market has been in consolidation for a while. Last week, price action printed a bearish pinbar around a horizontal S/R area on the weekly time frame. This is likely to be followed by a southward move this week. The 126.500 area is likely to be a target of bears should they manage to seize the initiative. {image} On the H4 time frame, price action has breached an ascending trendline (red) from the low of August 2018. Last week Friday, the last two sessions ended up printing an inside bar. The wicky nature...
Hi KP,

Appreciate your analysis on EUR/JPY. I know your post is 8 days old, but it still holds true to me. I trade E/J in a variety of ways, but on a longer term basis i'll be looking to short around the 129.50 to 129.75 area (assuming it gets there soon and the PA confirms that building a short position is still of interest to me).

So thanks. And if you have anything to add on the pair, I'm all ears. Regards,
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #458
  • Sep 11, 2018 3:31am Sep 11, 2018 3:31am
Thanks mate. Get a good setup on an htf, and look for a precision entry on an ltf provided you have a high reward--to-risk ratio. As a short--term swing trader, I usually look for at least a 4:1 reward--to-risk ratio. Using some confluence factors to enhance your odds is also a profitable approach.

Trade safe, and you will prosper

KP
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} Hi KP, Appreciate your analysis on EUR/JPY. I know your post is 8 days old, but it still holds true to me. I trade E/J in a variety of ways, but on a longer term basis i'll be looking to short around the 129.50 to 129.75 area (assuming it gets there soon and the PA confirms that building a short position is still of interest to me). So thanks. And if you have anything to add on the pair, I'm all ears. Regards,
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #459
  • Sep 11, 2018 6:51am Sep 11, 2018 6:51am
I am just able to take a look at the EURJPY. The EURJPY market is in a consolidation mode within a congestion zone (bound by two horizontal magenta lines on the attached W1 and H4 charts). Unless a trader had entered near the upper zone of the range (near the upper horizontal magenta line), it may be difficult to guarantee a good long-term trade in either direction. Traders who scalp or who are intra-day may go short for a few pips based on a setup on the H4 time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_W1_Sept._11,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_H4_Sept._11,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} Hi KP, Appreciate your analysis on EUR/JPY. I know your post is 8 days old, but it still holds true to me. I trade E/J in a variety of ways, but on a longer term basis i'll be looking to short around the 129.50 to 129.75 area (assuming it gets there soon and the PA confirms that building a short position is still of interest to me). So thanks. And if you have anything to add on the pair, I'm all ears. Regards,
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #460
  • Sep 16, 2018 3:24pm Sep 16, 2018 3:24pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has disposed southward since June 2018 when price action broke below an ascending channel (red) on the weekly time frame that has held for almost 18 months. Since then, the order flow has largely been under the control of bears. Five weeks’ ago, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed and threaned the horizontal support around the 1152.52 area but failed. However, a week later, price action headed northward, printing a bullish candlestick which retested a previous horizontal support around the 1208.40 area. Nevertheless, the past three weeks have not particularly favoured the bulls and it appears the northward push is being hindered. The long tail doji-like candlestick printed last week may have a bearish follow through particularly given the fact that price action has been indicating a southward bias since two weeks’ earlier. Presently, price action is located around the monthly pivot; much likely, a southward break will provide impetus for a southward momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_W1_Sept._16,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


The tehnicals on the daily time frame are in favour of bears. A simple wave analysis indicates that the market is presently in a corrective phase and is likely to be followed by a southward impulsive phase. A bearish pinbar was printed last week Thursday and was followed up on Friday with the printing of another bearish pinbar, which was relatively stronger. Price action is operating within a triangle (black) and presently located at triangle support; which is in confluence with the monthly pivot around 1195.20.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_D1_Sept._16,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the H4 time frame, it is apparent that the most recent price action has been in consolidation, a triangular pattern (black), after a down trend. The wave pattern on the H4 time frame indicates that we may have a downward wave after the present consolidation. A likely result of a breakdown of the triangle support is an increase in bearish momentum. The horizontal support around the 1170.10 area is likely to be a target of bears, but it will take a while for price action to get there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_H4_Sept._16,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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